Posted on 01/21/2008 2:48:02 PM PST by newbie2008
A sizeable faction of the people who think peak oil is important, and happening soon enough to care about, think it has big implications for agriculture. And most of them agree on what those implications are: as a society, we are going to have to give up the big combine harvesters, the thunderous power of 275 horsepower tractors, and instead we will have to return to small-scale, hand-labor organic production. Rather than having 2-5% of the working population involved in agriculture, as in most western societies at present, most people will need to be involved in growing food. This is part of the agenda of the relocalization movement, which itself is a recent reincarnation of a long-standing movement for localism.
This argument has never really made sense to me, but my recent explorations of food prices and biofuels have sharpened up my conviction that the thinking behind this position is mistaken. In this piece, I'm going to first document that some influential peak-oilers do in fact believe this, then try to discuss what I think the reasoning is -- it's not usually made very explicit but it depends on something I'm calling the Fallacy of Reversibility. Finally, I'm going to lay out why I don't think things are going to go the way the proponents of relocalization expect, at least not any time soon.
Relocalization Quotes The idea that "peak oil" was something that society was going to have to reckon with began amongst scientists with backgrounds in the oil industry - most famously Hubbert himself, and then elaborated by Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrere, Ken Deffeyes, and others.
(Excerpt) Read more at theoildrum.com ...
This is peak oil now. This is what peak oil is actually like. The oil is not abruptly running out at a time of maximum production.
Stalin called it Collectivism. It did not work very well.
Here’s the tell-tale giveaway: how many of the ‘imaginers’ of the locality movement actually own (and live on) economically self-sustaining farms?
Now there’s a good question.
I live near a lot of small, organic farms of 60 or fewer acres, and i can tell you they use mechanization.
They may eschew hormones and antibiotics in feed in favor of grass-fed animals, but they are not Luddites.
Beats me. I just know the lefty "communes" of circa 30 years ago never became popular. There is a good reason why they did not and why civilized man gave up subsistence agriculture. Its a ridiculously hard life.
This also assumes that “Peak Oil” is inevitable, which so far, has proved quite the opposite!
Another thought from a slightly differing viewpoint: ;)
http://www.gasresources.net/
There are lots of alternatives to oil. How about steam tractors? An old technology that works on coal of which we have abundant supplies. Don’t like coal? Then use cornstalks. We’ll be environmentally PC and call it a biofuel.
Or plug your E-85 hybrid tractor into a windmill for a charge. Or put solar cells on the barn roof to charge up the hay baler.
There is no such thing as abiotic oil.
You are kidding right?
Maybe a good business will be the farrier trade and building and repairing mule harnesses. Peak oil may be in sight but we are a long way from peak coal, peak oil shale, and peak tar sands.
Is this the same peak oil you were talking about a year ago or so?
It lasts that long?
There are as many peak oils are there are peak oilers. The old peak oil from the 50s was a first approximation. Now we have much more history to look at and see that while we are in peak oil now, the peak will not be so sharp as was first thought. In the 50s the world oil production was indeed likely to drop off quickly. Now so many fields are in production that oil production cannot drop off suddenly. Nevertheless oil production will drop off and as alternatives are developed the costs will rise. The decline will be much more gradual than the early models showed. If the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted the world oil production will step down instantly but world oil production will continue at a lower level, so we will not suddenly go dry, not even Europe since they have their North Sea as a buffer.
At least I post a link, what evidence do you provide to support your opinion?
Just break open an 8th Grade Earth Science textbook and it will explain how oil was formed.
So oil comes from dinosaurs? Is that what you think? Tell me then how is it possible that oil wells that in 1890 were determined to run dry by 1920 continue to produce “new” oil and MORE of it?
So you also believe in evolution?
The text books now say Global Warming or “climate change” is a man-made problem, do you think that too?
Go back and pass Critical Thinking 101 and write a book report.
The rest of us adults will be at the tavern waiting for you to grow up.
Hmmm, maybe your 8th grade book needs some updating!
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59991
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