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To Some, the Widening Crisis Seems Driven by Fear, Not Facts
NY Times ^ | January 22, 2008 | Landon Thomas Jr.

Posted on 01/22/2008 5:39:29 AM PST by lasereye

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To: petercooper

I have loaded up on Altria, with some shares at around $43 or so, and a string higher. That $3.00 annual dividend and DRIP from MO in an IRA is paying off. My portfolio in that one IRA is yielding just around 4% total in dividends alone. All solid stocks with great history.


21 posted on 01/22/2008 6:29:15 AM PST by astounded (The Democrat Party is a Clear and Present Danger to the USA)
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To: astounded

I pumped more in GE, XOM, CVX, MCD. I’ve wanted to add MO to my portfolio- may as well do it now


22 posted on 01/22/2008 6:44:56 AM PST by petercooper (It's called subprime for a reason.)
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To: MoMagic

Yup. The “decoupling” theory espoused by so many economists in the last two years has been killed, embalmed and buried as of today.


23 posted on 01/22/2008 6:45:32 AM PST by NVDave
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To: NVDave

But it’s different THIS time! /sarcasm

I’m wondering how the emergency overnight huge rate cut is being seen by Joe Six-Pack? I wonder if this will only add to the panic.

The FED can cut the rates to zero, but the losses from CDOs and toxic ABCP are going to have to work through the system at their own pace, and as long as some companies refuse to own up to these losses, the liquidity crisis is just going to go on and on.


24 posted on 01/22/2008 7:02:18 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free
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To: RayChuang88
People conveniently forget that World War II severely affected stock trading, and if World War II had never happened I personally think the stock market would have recovered back to the pre-crash levels by the middle 1940's at latest.

You conviently forget that WWII ended the depression, not FDRs programs.

25 posted on 01/22/2008 7:09:12 AM PST by chopperman
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To: chopperman

World War II ended the Great Depression, but it still didn’t help stock prices. Stock prices didn’t reach back to pre-Crash levels until the early 1950’s!


26 posted on 01/22/2008 7:15:08 AM PST by RayChuang88
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To: RayChuang88
Among other reasons (some geopolitical), that may be why the Arabs bought that big block of Citicorp the other week.

It's a classic bubble burst. We've had these recently, the tech bubble, the housing bubble, now an equities bubble. Fundamentally, there is no reason why profitable firms should have their share prices beaten down. So if it is, for reasons of panic. maybe cooler heads will profit from the irrationality.

27 posted on 01/22/2008 7:26:07 AM PST by chimera
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

I’m now experienced enough that when I hear “It’s different this time!” I start getting out, getting short or getting hedged.

The problem with Joe Six Pack is that he doesn’t know jack about what really goes on in the financial markets. For example, how many people here think that today’s Fed cut will directly translate into a lowering of mortgage rates? How many people know that the Funds rate is a “target” by the Fed and the market can (and has recently) had funds rates that were at variance with what the Fed wanted?

On and on and on. The public, as a whole, is stunningly misinformed about how the markets and economy actually works.

You’re right about the liquidity crisis: and the people who keep pointing at some stupid economic numbers are the most clueless about it. Liquidity issues have nothing to do with last month’s economic numbers. Zippo, nada, zilch. I don’t care if last month’s GDP shows an annualized GDP growth of 5%. Doesn’t mean jack if banks are vapor-locked and not lending.

Liquidity problems can have a big impact on next month’s economic numbers tho. And these liquidity problems are having an impact on the economy, starting in the housing sector, then the finance sector, and now we’re starting to see the blow-up in bond insurers and CDS’s have a much wider effect.

People who think that banking system problems are just going to “hit the fat cats” haven’t read the detailed history of the Depression. The stock market largely recovered in less than a year — then the liquidity crisis started and *then* the Depression started.


28 posted on 01/22/2008 7:28:26 AM PST by NVDave
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To: rbg81
That has already been suggested.
29 posted on 01/22/2008 7:30:00 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Stop the unFair Tax now; before it is fair for your neighbor and not you.)
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I am staying short until the DJIA breaks $11,000.
30 posted on 01/22/2008 7:32:59 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Stop the unFair Tax now; before it is fair for your neighbor and not you.)
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To: lasereye

Bulk distributions for 401K profit sharing accounts should be hitting the markets soon. At least mine will be in the next week.


31 posted on 01/22/2008 7:35:59 AM PST by listenhillary (A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have.)
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To: NVDave

We are on the same page. I am sure the emergency panic rate cut will do some short-term good to stabilize a market crash, but they will have no effect staving off a recession that will come from the liquidity crisis and the loss of consumption by indebted consumers following the bursting of the housing bubble.


32 posted on 01/22/2008 7:40:05 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free
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To: claudiustg
Any decent houses under $200,000 are snapped up very, very quickly.

That's the case around where I live, too. Houses in the lower tier ($80,000 to $150,000 two or three years ago) have really appreciated, while the $400-$600K houses sit.

The "bubble" was NOT uniform.

33 posted on 01/22/2008 7:42:36 AM PST by valkyrieanne
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To: RayChuang88

hmmm. Somewhere there’s a Warren Buffet ETF where you can buy what he’s buying. Might be worth looking into.


34 posted on 01/22/2008 7:45:41 AM PST by Walmartian
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To: petercooper
"Great advice. My drips in many of these are getting loaded up with more $$"

I <3 My DRIPs!

35 posted on 01/22/2008 7:49:42 AM PST by Mad Dawgg ("`Eddies,' said Ford, `in the space-time continuum.' `Ah,' nodded Arthur, `is he? Is he?'")
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To: MoMagic

And when we sneeze, the rest of the world catches cold.


36 posted on 01/22/2008 7:51:10 AM PST by dfwgator (11+7+15=3 Heismans)
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To: Walmartian
I do think Buffett is waiting for the market bottom and pounce on a whole bunch of companies to buy on the cheap, then make a big profit a few years down the road. Mining stocks and certain consumer product stocks such as Proctor & Gamble could be nice buys for long term investment, especially if the price of precious metals rocket through the roof we could see a huge upswing in gold, silver and platinum mining activity and the fact P&G are less affected by wild market swings.
37 posted on 01/22/2008 8:58:12 AM PST by RayChuang88
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To: lasereye

But only use money you don’t need any time soon.


That line should be required reading for anyone who wants to invest.

One of the biggest problems with the market is people treating it like a lottery instead of a long term investment. Part of the reason is the ease with which anyone can invest these days; i.e. availability of brokers, small investments, Internet, etc.

Any investment should be with money that you aren’t needing any time soon. Too many people think like day traders.


38 posted on 01/22/2008 10:17:44 AM PST by kenth
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To: lasereye

I just logged on and yahoo news misleads by saying the rate cut was ineffective and the DOW is hopeless.

Funny when I left it was -300 and some but now it’s -100...

kind of like the war is lost tripe.

IF hypocrat liberals were playing football they’d quit when down at halftime and demand defeat at any cost when you explained the game isn’t over yet.


39 posted on 01/22/2008 10:24:48 AM PST by tpanther
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To: lasereye

Ambac is the first one to be downgraded. MBIA is still triple-A:

“This was followed late Thursday by an announcement by Moody’s Investors Service (MCO) that the rating agency had placed MBIA on negative outlook for a possible downgrade from the insurer’s triple-A.”

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120071150488302379.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo


40 posted on 01/22/2008 4:44:27 PM PST by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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