The ABM Vote: Anybody But McCain by John Batchelor

HumanEvents.com ^ | 23 January 2008 | John Batchelor

[K-oneTexas]

The ABM Vote: Anybody But McCain

by John Batchelor

Posted: 01/23/2008

With sturdy Fred Thompson gone from the GOP race, and Gov. Huckabee fading, Governor Romney and Mayor Giuliani remain in contention to capture the ”ABM” vote:  Anybody But McCain. Each of the two have strengths that will make the choice of just one of them a challenge in the weeks lefts before Super Tuesday and the lesser dates in February that will dominate the choice of the nominee.  At the same time, each of them has the same weakness, that is, history.  To nominate either of them would be unprecedented for the Republican Party not because of their politics, or character, but because of their proud and clear self-descriptions -- Mitt Romney as a capitalist, and Rudy Giuliani as a New York mayor.

Mitt Romney is a very smart man, and his remark on the very day of greatest market turmoil is a measure of his experience in the world of free enterprise:

"I can tell you from my own personal experience that every time I've seen things really get scary and the markets really collapse that I put aside that fear for a moment and say, 'Ah-ha, is this a buying opportunity?' Because my experience has always been what goes down, comes back up."

Everything is right about this observation, from the advice to buy when there's blood in the street to the long-term regard for sound investments in growth.  At the same time, Mr. Romney also identifies himself as completely a capitalist bull.  This is a traditional weakness when you are running for POTUS.  There has never been a successful nominee of either party who identified himself primarily as a capitalist.  A century ago, such a title would have pushed the candidate into the Carnegie-Morgan-Rockefeller division of the GOP and would have been ruinous at the general election.  Carnegie cost Harrison in 1892; and Morgan and Wall Street likely cost Taft in 1912.  Even the Bull Moose himself, T.R., fled capitalism when he ran as a breakaway in 1912. 

Half a century ago, Governor Romney's remark would have associated himself with the men in the gray flannel suits, the corporation man, and this became a negative on the campaign trail after the travails of former Ford boss McNamara with the Kennedy Administration, and even was a drag on Governor Romney's former American Motors boss father in the 1964 GOP. Bluntly, there is no precedent for the electorate to choose a “capitalist tool” over a military man like McCain. If and when it happens, Mitt Romney will be the new mold all by himself (Willkie is an outlier and unclassifiable even as a Republican), and will introduce a new phase to the GOP that has avoided the Wall Street mantle for its choices for one hundred years.

With Mayor Giuliani there is the historical weakness that the GOP has never chosen a New York City official for a nominee.  That too would be unprecedented.  After Garfield's horrible end, a lingering death from assassination, the former Collector of the Port of New York Chester Arthur served out the term; however he did not run for election, and this does not qualify as precedent.  TR himself might satisfy except for the fact that he added governor of New York and vice-president to his profile before he ascended by the accident of assassination and won re-election accordingly.

What's wrong with a mayor of the largest city becoming a Republican nominee?  Chiefly, it's because New York City is a Democratic stronghold.  It voted against Lincoln twice and has voted against as many Republicans as it can find since.  Rudy Giuliani is an Achilles in the Troy of the Democrats.  He is an exception to everything about the Republican Party's history.   What makes him colorful and effective in New York also makes him over the top and even shocking to the GOP states, and might make him unacceptable to the ABM crowd that identifies immigration and abortion as touchstones. 
If and when Mr. Giuliani becomes the Republican nominee, it will be so surprising that the party may have to rename itself something up to date, such as the Grand Old Borough.

When Bob Novak writes that the Republican elite is struggling to accept that John McCain is the party's likely nominee, after these may years of friction and food fighting between the Arizona senator and the conservative base, it has more to do with accepting the weight of party history than with discovering how to live with the unimaginable. 

Republican.  History is a mighty river.  It flows where it wants to and it wears down any obstacle.  What old school John McCain has on his side right now is that his major opponents are new, much too new, and they're swimming against the current.

---

Mr. Batchelor is a veteran novelist, author of seven political romances and a short history of the Republican Party, and host of The John Batchelor Show, now on hiatus.

[Greg F]

Issue is whether this is a holding action against inevitable corrupt dictatorship (we are already getting competing family lines for the presidency and huge increases in the size of government regardless of which party controls the White House or the Congress) or wheter we are trying to win freedom back. If it’s a holding action I don’t think it will hold long enough to save my daughter’s freedom (she’s 3) or her childrens, so I’d rather fight to win.

[meandog]

Ho-hum...more McCain bad/Romney good fluff from folks determined to defeat the only chance of beating Hillary!

[meandog]

I believe Mitt is bright enough to make his case. He’s not a dope.

And doesn't have a hope (of beating any of the Dems)!

[ClancyJ]

Boy, you sure managed to misread George Bush.

What about the tax cuts, what about the great economy we had, what about a strong leader willing to stand up for America after the attack.

Pure playboy stuff I guess.

What about trying to drill in Anwar
What about his stand against the Kyoto Treaty and the cost to Americans to follow that nonsense?

What about his handling of estate taxes?

What about his sound environmental policies holding firm against the power-grabbing control attempted by the environmental wing?

I have seen an entire page of the things that Bush really accomplished during his administration that have been totally ignored by the media and many here.

I would be thankful if we had another man with the abilities of George W. Bush. You will not in this time get the perfect president - but you might try and see the accomplishments of the ones we get as opposed to what the democrats would have done.

[SoCalPol]

Go for a brokered convention

I have been posting the same.

The lot that are left are mods and liberals.
also if there was one you could respect as a person, it wouldn’t be half bad but the least of the libs have no core and more than expedient.

[K-oneTexas]

I didn't see smugness or arrogance in Romney during any of the debates, nor at anytime previously in his public appearance (Olympics, etc). I do see smugness or arrogance in McCain ... a lot over the last 4-8 years. To a lesser extent, but sill there, I see/sense smugness or arrogance in Rudy and Huckabee in the way they handle others and their questions in the last several months.

A compassionate conservative we now have ... a repeat is not what we need. Rudy and McCain offer us the same 'CHANGE' as Hillary and Obama ... just a different colored coat/tie to make it palatable to republicans.

Romney wasn't my first or second choice and I thought I'd never have to go further. He doesn't embody the philosophy I'd prefer, strict conservative ... but as a moderate he can be worked with to hopefully move in the right direction. I don't see him as another Bush but that in itself is a damn sight better than another Clinton.

For me I can survive without the huge left turn, maybe 'U' turn, Hillary, Obama, McCain and Rudy will move this country into. I believe we will have a more steady drive on the path we're on and maybe then move right ... little by little.

[Zevonismymuse]

There has never been a successful nominee of either party who identified himself primarily as a capitalist.

There has also never been a successful nominee of either party who identified him/herself as a woman or a African American, but for a fact the Democratic nominee will be one or the other. The times they are a changin'.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Never happen. The Clinton’s would make Romney and his Mormonism the issue. After awhile they would be showing pictures of Jim Jones and his cult drinking kool aid. They are in the process of taking Obama apart right now (You may not know that after SC, but watch what happens Feb. 5th).

[ari-freedom]

1. Huck : at least he is truly a compassionate conservative.
-

yeah towards illegals, criminals and terrorists in Gitmo.

It comes down to whether you value more: McCain’s military experience or Romney’s economic experience.

McCain doesn’t know anything about the economy. It’s not just that he never created a single job in the private sector...Fred didn’t either. But McCain keeps saying the wrong things (like global warming) and voted against the right things such as the Bush tax cuts. At a time when people are worried about the economy so much I don’t see any good reason for McCain.

[ari-freedom]

people won’t appreciate everything we had with Bush until someone like hillary comes and takes it all away

[Michael Barnes]

Alan Keyes is stuck on Alan Keyes.

[demshateGod]

I’d like to see Bin Laden “clean her clock” but I’m not voting for him.

Anyone but Mitt, McCain, Rudy, Paul, or Huckabee in 08!

[demshateGod]

“Expect HIGH TAXES, and lots of Scripture out of context to support his HUMANISTIC approach.”

Huckabee’s a true Rick Warren disciple.

[ClancyJ]

So true.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Win, Mitt, Win!

Keep McCain away from the NUCLEAR BUTTON!

[nmh]

“Huckabee’s a true Rick Warren disciple.”

Yes, he is. Humanism is their message.

Neither are preaching the Bible.

I just can’t wait to see Rick Warren tell us Iran is our friend too! Wasn’t it North Korea that was out friend and Bush had it all wrong? Rick Warren vowed to go to Iran this Spring to show us that he is a “useful idiot” and most likely come back and tell us that Iran is really our friend.

Huckabee’s remark on Bush - “arrogant bunker mentality” dove tails nicely with Rick Warrens fantasy that North Korea and Iran are “good people”. Two of a kind ... neither men of God.

[nmh]

“Anyone but Mitt, McCain, Rudy, Paul, or Huckabee in 08!”

The fact is that excluding leaves us with no one.

I see Mitt as the lessor of the evils.

If Mc Pain or Huckabee wins ... the GOP is just Demoncrat light. There will be such little difference between the two parties that it won’t be worth having a Republican party. One thing is sure - Huckabee is hemorrhaging financially. When you look at Mike Huckabeee’s core base, they are the ones that are less educated and on the lower end of the income scale - so they buy into his sloop and don’t have money to give him - the HUck$ter will fade away. This is also a reason why they are attracted to Mike’s humanism and socialist methods of implementing this unchristian utopia - they COVET what others have and don’t know their Bible!

McPain may scrape up some money. I worry more about him.

Here’s the profile I refer to:

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/20/south-carolina-republican-exit-poll-results/#comment-44325

Hope it’s still there.

[demshateGod]

Mitt was a liberal right up until the election. Why do you think he’s going to be any better? There is such little difference between the two parties that it isn’t worth having a Republican party.

[marinamuffy]

Rick Santorum is great and it's a shame he is no longer in office here in Pa. I thought I heard something yesterday on Fox about how he was urging people to vote for Rudy in Florida to derail McCain.

I'll be happy with a brokered convention. Maybe we can bring back Hunter - although I think I'm one of the few not suprised or angry about his endorsement of Huck.

I'm a little wary about voting for someone you want to lose in the end just because of the media generated "momentum" hype that could follow.

marinamuffy

[Greg F]

I’m not mad at Hunter for endorsing Huckabee. Huckabee is talking the conservative talk. Why should we all rally to Romney who is also talking the conservative talk after talking like a liberal and governing like one in Mass., give Romney the benefit of the doubt, and not give Huckabee the doubt regarding his conservative statements? It’s like the southern governor is not allowed to shift right, but the northern businessman is? We are more comfortable being lied to by a slick Northern con man than a slick southern con man? Really, makes no sense to believe Romney’s conversion is real and to reject Huckabee’s as false.