Posted on 01/28/2008 11:28:29 AM PST by Plutarch
Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney has opened up a seven point lead over John McCain in Florida, according to the newest survey by Public Policy Polling. Romney is at 35%, followed by McCain at 28%. Mike Huckabee has 13% and Rudy Giuliani is at 12%.
40% of respondents reported making their decision on who to vote for either over the weekend or in the last week. Romney has a 36-26 lead over McCain among those surveyed who said they made up their mind over the weekend and a 47-28 lead with voters who made their decision in the last week. 6% of voters remain undecided. If their choices distribute the same way as those polled who had made a decision the final result in Florida will be 37% for Romney, 30% for McCain, 14% for Huckabee, 13% for Giuliani, and 5% for Ron Paul.
“The tide in Florida has been breaking Mitt Romney’s way over the last week,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like he’s picking up support both from voters who had remained undecided and from folks who no longer think Huckabee or Giuliani has a chance.” 25% of survey respondents indicated they had already cast their ballots during the early voting period. Romney’s advantage with that group is 39-30.
The race among those who intend to vote on election day is tighter. Romney leads McCain 34-28 with that group.
PPP surveyed 680 likely Republican primary voters on January 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Hmm... Datamar is also a machine pollster... interesting.
One factor no-one has looked into: A whopping portion of Floridians already voted.
Yes and the exit polling for those already voted had shown a tie between McQueeg and Mitt. Better for Mitt than I had thought because the early polls favored McQueeg.
Anyway, it would be good to see McAmnesty-Feingold get beat.
Here are the Senators who voted against the Cornyn amendment , which would have established a permanent bar for gang members, terrorists, and other criminals looking to snag a shamnesty visa. Republicans underlined:
Never forget McCain not only pushed the amnesty bill, he refused to allow exclusions for the worst of the lot. And he unloaded his infamous temper on his mild-mannered senate colleague for having the audacity to introduce this amendment.
Apologies to any who feel I am spamming this message on campaign threads, but it is an important message on a key vote which needs to get out.
Go Mitt. This firm evidently does not use Zogby sauce.
This poll is dated January 23rd. Long before Martinez and Christ endorsements.
bump - more eyes need to see
This makes me feel a little better because if you look at the polling, 40% of the respondents are over 65% and over 80% of the respondents are over 45. This means that it was weighted more towards those who would likely support McCain. I would daresay there will be a slightly younger mix of voters in the primary, which I think will favor Romney over McCain.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
Hmm... Datamar is also a machine pollster... interesting.
One factor no-one has looked into: A whopping portion of Floridians already voted.
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Right after McCain’s victory in S. Carolina. The big non-machine polls show a much closer race. I’ve decided to vote Huckabee just because I think McCain is a liberal and Romney can’t be trusted on social issues, economic issues, or defense issues (homosexual rights supported in Mass., proposed giveaways to win the Michigan primary, and his desire for a “secret” date to withdraw from Iraq). That leaves Huckabee who might get enough support in the south and in proportional delegate states to throw this nomination to the convention . . . where anything could happen including a true conservative as a dark horse nominee.
Actually it was taken yesterday.
If it’s true that 25% already voted, and they gave Romney a nine point edge over mCCain, it will be hard for McCain to make that up.
“This poll is dated January 23rd. Long before Martinez and Christ endorsements.”
You’re right....Romney should be even higher now!
I understand that McCain led in early voting by a small %.
They're included in the data.
The intrade.com betting site currently has McCain at 50.5 and Romney at 45.6 for tomorrow’s Florida vote; it’s a very close race.
Look again. The poll was taken yesterday (1/27).
PPP surveyed 680 likely Republican primary voters on January 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
I just pulled it up and the date on it is clearly 23 January.
Those endorsements ought to be of no help to McCain.
Exactly and this is being under reported as well as the fact people are getting turned off by the robocalls and there is no control over who answers those calls and who pushes the buttons AND there is no button to push if you have already voted (according to friends in FL who have received these calls).
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