Posted on 01/28/2008 1:00:38 PM PST by GOPGuide
Geography Surveyed: Florida Data Collected: 01/27/2008 Release Date: 01/28/2008 8:15 AM ET Sponsors: WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola
Eve of FL GOP Primary, Clear Divisions Among Republicans, But No Clear Frontrunner: 24 Hours till voting ends in the Florida GOP Primary, it is easy to describe who is voting for Mitt Romney and who is voting for John McCain, but difficult to tell which of the two will win the Winner-Take-All Primary, according to SurveyUSA's 9th tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile. Romney has 32%, McCain 31% at this hour, effectively tied. Rudolph Giuliani and Mike Huckabee are far back. Romney leads by 17 points among voters focused on the Economy, and leads by 24 points among voters focused on Immigration. McCain leads by 14 points among voters focused on Terrorism and by 22 points among voters focused on Iraq. Romney leads by 16 among Conservatives. McCain leads by 28 among Moderates. Romney leads by 14 in SE FL. McCain leads Romney by 14 in NW FL, where Huckabee, showing twice the strength he shows elsewhere in Florida, is six points behind McCain. Romney and McCain are effectively tied in NE FL and Central FL. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one week ago, completed after McCain won South Carolina, but before Fred Thompson dropped out, both Romney and McCain are up significantly. But Romney is up slightly more, and may have the slightest additional momentum at the wire.
Filtering / Timing: 2,000 Florida adults were interviewed 01/27/08. Of them, 1,790 were registered to vote. Of them 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be Republicans who had either already voted in the GOP Primary, using early voting, or who were likely to vote at the precinct on 01/29/08. Among those who said they had already voted: Romney 36%, McCain 31%. Among those who had not yet voted, but who told SurveyUSA that their mind was made-up, and they would not change it before the Primary: McCain 32%, Romney 32%. SurveyUSA will endeavor to conduct some additional interviews Monday night 01/28/08, to see if there is unanticipated last-minute movement in the contest.
Interactive Tracking Graphs: Click on the "Triangle-T" where-ever you see it to open SurveyUSA's exclusive interactive tracking graphs. SurveyUSA is the only opinion pollster to release interactive tracking graphs with its election poll results. See Romney catch McCain among women voters here. See Giuliani and McCain change places, among Moderate voters, here. See Giuliani's support in SE FL erode from 54% to 16% here. See McCain go from 12% in Central FL to 34%, here.
Keep your fingers crossed people, this is going to close...
Updated with some more endorsements....
Watch this come down to hanging chads again!
This firm nailed SC. Romney bump. I-4 corridor critical.
“Watch this come down to hanging chads again!”
It seems it’s always in Florida!
I would suggest ... is insane! ;)
It's kind of interesting, I guess, although I would rather watch actual Rhinos fight on the National Geographic channel.....
And this is post-Crist bump, maybe.
Over the last 3 days I’ve received at least 6 calls from McCains campaign. Each one starts out with the same recorded message of how evil Romney is on gun control. The only reference to McCain is the “I’m John McCain and I approve this message.”
I wish NRTL had been able to get back together and endorse Romney before Florida.
Ruh-roh, Johnny. Looks like Romney's gonna take you down.
Not only that, but this is the first SurveyUSA poll that has Romney on top... Mitt clearly has the momentum.
Not only that, but this is the first SurveyUSA poll that has Romney on top... Mitt clearly has the momentum.
Look folks, anyone who knows me knows this is a major thing for me to say now....
Come on Romney!
Yeah it took a McCain to bring me to that, but it is what it is.
And for God sake Mitt, embrace conservatism! People can and do change. You can do it too. You talk the talk, well now is the time to walk it.
If McCain is elected president, he will switch parties and become a Democrat.
He would do it to avoid the serious challenge he would face within the GOP for renomination in 4 years.
McCain would move quickly to pump up his Democrat credentials as soon as he takes office.
It is actually SurveyUSA that compiles the polling accuracy report. The only primary they've covered has been SC, which is unfortunate for their accuracy rating, because they must include the Obama blowout. On the SC GOP side they were the most accurate.
2008 Presidential Primary Pollster Report Card Through 01/26/08
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