Posted on 01/29/2008 9:14:31 AM PST by PlainOleAmerican
The Writing on the Wall in South Carolina - Thompson didn’t fail the Republican Party. The Party that failed to present a conservative themselves, or support one even when conservatives drafted one, failed Thompson.
Shade tree political pundits, who worked around the clock to douse ice water on Fred Thompson’s conservative campaign for President, are busy with their “I told you so” follow-ups. For them, Thompson’s departure from the race is interpreted as hard proof that the candidate was indeed “too old,” “too unhealthy,” “too lazy” and “too disinterested” in winning or leading. But for those who know Fred best, those who drafted him and worked to support him, his departure confirms something quite different…something much worse.
Thompson is simply too Conservative
At a time in history when conservatives are referred to as only a “fringe” of the Republican Party, and when fundamental American values and principles are called “extreme right-wing ideas,” a truly conservative candidate can’t win.
Conservative candidates never do well in liberal strongholds like New Hampshire, where nearly 50 percent of all voters are registered Independent and even Republicans vote liberal, or Michigan, the labor union capitol of the United States. Losing in liberal stronghold states is no surprise; in fact, it’s more a confirmation of one’s conservative credentials.
But not so long ago, there was no such thing as “too conservative” for South Carolina and that’s why Thompson bet his farm on South Carolina. Due to how early primaries are scheduled in liberal leaning states, a conservative candidate must begin his quest for national office in South Carolina, the first traditionally conservative state to hold a primary.
The History Thompson knows too well
For any conservative (or Republican) to win a national election, he must unite at least two of the three primary branches of the Republican Party. History provides a vital lesson in this regard.
In 1980, even on the heels of a disastrous Carter administration, Ronald Reagan united the conservative base of the party, the evangelical wing of the party, fiscal, social and national security conservatives and still won the White House with only 50.7% of the popular vote.
In 1984, Reagan won a second term with 58.8% of the popular vote and a party more united than any time in the 20th Century.
In 1988, George HW Bush won on Reagan’s legacy and a promise to continue Reagan policies into the future. Less popular than Reagan, Bush still garnered 53.4% of the popular vote, with all branches of the Republican Party still intact.
In 1991, Bush approval ratings were at an all time high after successfully ejecting Iraq’s Hussein from Kuwait and pushing him from the Saudi border all the way back to Baghdad.
But by 1992, Bush had parted company with the conservative base of his party by compromising with Democrats in congress, breaking his “no new taxes” pledge and setting the federal government back on the path of growth and liberal fiscal irresponsibility.
Evangelicals were divided now, but the conservative base of the party walked away from Bush en masse and sided with fiscal conservative pie-chart candidate Ross Perot. Bush lost what otherwise would have been an easy re-election, dropping to only 37.4% of the popular vote, handing Bill Clinton the White House with only 43% of the popular vote, opposed by 57% of the nation.
In 1994, after Hillary Clinton’s failed attempts to socialize America’s medical industry, American conservatives seized control of both houses of congress in a landslide movement to block Democrats from socializing anything under Clinton. Led by Newt Gingrich’s platform of the boldest conservative policy initiatives in decades, the Contract with America, Republicans controlled congress for the first time in 40 years.
But again in 1996, the RNC powers put forth a less than fully conservative candidate, Bob Dole, who failed to reunite or inspire the primary branches of the party. Once again, with the party divided, Bill Clinton won re-election, this time with 49.2% of the popular vote.
In 2000, a born again evangelical from Texas with a prominent last name, promising to return the Republican Party to it’s conservative roots and reunite the conservative base with the evangelical wing, fiscal, social and national security conservatives, won the White House. But this time, voters in the conservative base were not fully sold, having been burnt by his father only a few years earlier, concerned over what he meant by “compassionate conservative.”
As a result, Bush 43 actually lost the popular national vote by over a half million voters. He got lucky, winning the Electoral College vote, namely in Florida, by less than 600 votes in the end.
Seven months following his inauguration, 9/11 happened. The conservative base, evangelicals and national security hawks were once again fully united and in 2004, Bush won his bid for re-election by more than 3 million voters.
Unfortunately, by 2006 however, Bush 43 with the help of a do-nothing Republican Congress once again turned on both the conservative base and evangelicals, and the nation came to understand that “compassionate conservative” meant “amnesty for illegals”, open borders at a time of war against terrorism, apologetic national security and war planning, record social spending, record deficits and a declining dollar.
Base conservatives and evangelicals were furious and they demonstrated their frustration with liberal Republican leadership by removing incumbent Republicans from power and returning control of both houses of congress over to Democrats.
In 2008, History is poised to Repeat
Fred Thompson was the only complete traditional conservative in the race for the White House in 2008. Giuliani is a national security hawk, but otherwise, as liberal as the average Democrat voter. Romney and Huckabee talk tough on security, but oppose many of the measures needed to provide for national security and both have a less than conservative fiscal and social resume.
McCain can actually be accused of almost single handedly causing the Republican bloodbath of 2006. McCain opposes Gitmo, interrogation of known terrorists, many Patriot Act policies that have already resulted in a safer America. He opposed Bush’s tax cuts and led the charge for Campaign Finance Reform, some of which has already been ruled “unconstitutional” by the Supreme Court and his failed agenda of Amnesty for illegal aliens.
Divided Still
In order for any conservative (or Republican) to win a national election, they must have the ability to reunite the same branches of the party that Reagan united in 1980 and 1984, that Bush 41 kept intact for 1988, but fractured in 1992. The base branches of the party that Gingrich united in victory in 1994 and Bush 43 reunited in 2004 was fractured again in 2006 and remains fractured as we head into the 2008 election cycle.
The Writing on the Wall in South Carolina
Thompson had to win South Carolina. To do so, he had to have the support of base conservative, which he certainly had. But he also needed support from the evangelical wing, which is lined up behind Huckabee, and national security conservatives, which are divided between Giuliani and Romney. In the end, Thompson only had the support of the traditional conservative base that drafted him into the race. Thompson was unable to unite the other branched he needed to go forward and if they would not unite in South Carolina, they would not unite at all.
So, John McCain, the man who was almost single handedly responsible for the 2006 blood bath, emerged from South Carolina the victor.
Like his win in New Hampshire, his win in South Carolina was not the result of core conservatives, evangelicals, national security, fiscal or social conservative, all of whom remain divided between the other candidates. McCain won in New Hampshire and South Carolina with Independent voters.
South Carolina Democrats have even endorsed a man named Barack “Hussein” Obama, who is left of Hillary Clinton, in case you thought that wasn’t possible, who has no résumé of real accomplishment, political or otherwise, and who unlike Hillary, really will cut-n-run from the very real war against international Islamic terror.
No Conservatives Please
We know that the liberal northeast will only support the most liberal Republicans in any race. But South Carolina has in the past stuck to their conservative roots and advanced the most conservative candidates. Not this time…
This time, like the rest of the country, South Carolina failed to unite behind a conservative and instead, divided, they advanced the most liberal Republican in the race, John “amnesty” McCain.
Set in Stone
Thompson knows history and politics well enough to know that a conservative loss in South Carolina means a conservative loss across the divided plains. Thompson’s decision to depart the race was made not by Thompson, but by South Carolina voters.
History is set to repeat and Thompson saw it big time in South Carolina.
Thompson had core conservatives. But evangelicals are locked over behind Pastor Huckabee. Rudy has social liberals who are tough on crime and terrorism. Romney has the fiscally conservative Mormon vote and true moderates and Independents are with McCain.
That spells - no conservative for 2008 and most likely, no Republican as well.
Thompson has listened to the voice of the people who do not want conservative leadership in 2008. That’s why he’s out of the race.
Conservative voters are now stuck with a decision they have had to make for several years now. A choice between supporting a slow march to the left under a Republican, or supporting the “shock treatment” of allowing voters to realize the consequences of supporting only left-leaning candidates.
Many Thompson supporters vow to vote for Thompson in their primary anyway. I will likely join them in that statement!
But with no conservative in the race, electing a conservative in November is a literal impossibility. Conservatives can only vote against a candidate. There is no candidate to vote for… The sole conservative in the race did not fail Republicans. Republicans failed him.
And history repeats again. This time, for all the marbles!
To paraphrase the phrase by the British “No Conservatives please, we’re Republicans”
If you were right, Tancredo could not have endorsed Romney and Hunter could not have endorsed Huckabee, both of whom are far left of Thompson on almost every issue.
Williams IS right! As you can see from the postings of FR conservatives, including BIG JIM...
Im with you there
A VITAL step in the right direction...
Afraid I do...
Well-stated! I stuck to Fred and voted for him in FL today!
or a Mexican, don't forget that.
Agreed...
This can only be solved state to state by the state Republican Party offices. Same goes for starting the RNC nomination process in liberal strongholds instead of conservative strongholds.
Good show! BRAVO!
Ditto! (You forgot ‘shrill fringe’!)
Take me with you!!
I don’t know if conservatism is dying, and there are very few true conservatives in our country, or if 99% of Americans are asleep or just plain don’t care anymore.
Whatever it is, it doesn’t look good for America.
I am dreading an Obama win.
I disagree with the analysis. Thompson wasn’t ‘too conservative’ to win in South Carolina. He was just a terrible candidate that ran a campaign that was almost a template for how not to do it.
If he was too conservative to win South Carolina, why did the majority of polls between mid-August and mid-October show him with the most support in the state? Did SC suddenly become less conservative between October and January? Did people not realise back then what Fred’s political philosphy was? Both seem unlikely. Instead they looked at the candidate and he didn’t impress them, didn’t convince them that they should vote for him and so they looked at other candidates instead.
Thompson’s woeful 2% in New Hampshire can’t be explained away with ‘oh but they’re all liberals’ when Thompson was out-polling McCain in the state before he’d even declared to run.
California has received a large influx of other states and countries miscreants and rejects who are FAR more liberal than their native California counterparts. So I can sympathize ... however, there is way to much at stake in this election for anyone who cares even a little for their country to be under informed.
Conservative SC nominated McCain? and you think “conservatives” did that?
What you are pointing out here is another huge problem in the electorate...
At this point in history, even Republicans have been trained to vote for the best trained seal and since all candidates were better trained seals than Fred, even Republicans wrongly concluded (like you) that the lesser trained seal was not a serious candidate because he refused to play a trained seal...
So, you end up with trained seals, not leaders.
Thompson was never attacked on his policy statements, which were indeed more detailed and more conservative than anyone else’s.
He was attacked for not being a good trained seal. A valid criticism...for sure. But not a very smart one.
I think over time many people fell for the media’s constant message of “he can’t win so don’t waste your vote”.
JMO.
It is all well and good to analyze a chicken’s guts in detail, but at some point the chicken must be thrown in the pot or the analysts will go hungry.
Conservatism became diluted through many small compromises, each a tiny defeat in its own right, until, at day’s end the the mix had lost its earlier essence, the potency of its tonic gone flat and unpalatable to those in need of a sudded burst.
The whole idea of political conservatism rests on fundamental concepts worth saving; take away the concept or cloak its presence and you’re left with a fading memory.
What” Voters mindless followers of media propaganda? What evidence do you have to support this crazy notion? LOL
Both Bushes failed and betrayed the conservative base that, through the election of Ronald Reagan, gave them the only opportunity to run as Reagan’s successors only to fail miserably and return Democrat Lite RINO Republican traitors back to positions of power they would never have even enjoyed as a minority party had it not been for conservatives like Reagan. As for the other Bush, Jeb; he came out for driver’s licenses for illegals after first opposing them and joined in with his brother, John McCain, Ted Kennedy, Mel Martinez, and the entire RINO infested RNC beltway party apparatus.
I don’t know what the hell is going on in South Carolina, but here in North Carolina we are drowning in a tidal wave of illegal alien parasites, criminals, deadbeats, and freeloaders who are collapsing our social and economic infrastructures at a time in which North Carolinians have suffered immensely from sky high taxes, massive job outsourcing, and over a century of corrupt and despicable Democrat one party governance. Yet the same stupid and repugnant policies peddled by liberals and Democrats is virtually identical to that favored and peddled by Republican RINO idiots like McCain who are ideological brothers of liberals, NOT conservatives.
In the final analysis however, John McCain is not going to be elected President; not because most conservatives find him to be a detestible backstabbing phony liar and traitor, but because simply being a lifelong Washington beltway insider who is the epitome of the entrenched corruption and failure of government will be rejected by most voters on both sides, especially if he goes up against Obama who appeals to many as a fresh new face without the taint of beltway political corruption John McCain himself frequently decries but always exempts himself from. What a phony.
lets just say it: The GOP would rather lose with a Bob Dole than win with a conservative
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