Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?(As Hillobama implode, GOP base savages McCain)

National Review Online ^ | 1/31/2008 | Vicor Davis Hanson

[Brices Crossroads]

Just ... months ago, the 2008 presidential contest seemed predetermined. ...Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were far ahead... .... Sen. Clinton was all but declared the foreordained winner a year in advance.

But not now. [snip]

The result of all this has been that while Hillary still polls ahead of the surging Obama in most states, in hypothetical general-election polls she runs behind Republican frontrunner, Sen. John McCain.

End of story?

Hardly. In reaction to McCain’s own surge and the Republican windfall, the conservative base went ballistic. Soon a Republican civil war broke out over how best to lose the election.

Despite McCain’s 82-percent career ranking by the American Conservative Union, and his support for balanced budgets, an end to pork-barrel spending and earmarks, strong support for the war, and expressed regret over once supporting the Bush illegal immigration reform package, McCain was branded by the conservative media as a sellout and a near liberal. Not to mention that he was supposedly too old and hot-tempered to be the Republican nominee. The more McCain was discovered not to be a perfect conservative, the more he was accused of not even being a good one.

Even stranger, the various Republican candidates began invoking Ronald Reagan...

Were conservatives supposed to forget that a maverick Reagan raised some taxes, signed an illegal-alien amnesty bill, expanded government, appointed centrist Supreme Court justices, advocated nuclear disarmament, sold arms to Iran, and pulled out of Lebanon — but to remember only that John McCain was not for the original Bush tax cuts or once supported the administration’s offer of a quasi-amnesty?

[snip]

November’s vote may hinge on whether moderates and liberals are nauseated enough by the Clintons...to ... vote for a decorated Republican war hero — that is, if his own flag-waving party doesn’t destroy him first.

[Brices Crossroads]

This is a thoughtful article by Victor Davis Hanson on the state of the Republican race. It shows that even the Gipper, who I supported since 1976, diverged from conservative orthodoxy on more than one occasion. McCain shares much of Reagan's philosophy and some of his digressions. He is stauchly prolife, has supported every conservative justice in the last 25 years (I did not notice Mitt Romney in the fight for Bork and Thomas). He is someone who will veto wasteful government spending like no President since Ford (which in my view was the one area where Ford was better than Reagan). And, more importantly, he understands the threat of Islamic fascism and is steadfast in opposing it. In light of this, destroying McCain and turning the White House over to the Clintons again is sheer madness.

[counterpunch]

Here's why, Vic.



 

[11th Commandment]

Already Posted: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1962536/posts

[MrB]

Reagan would compromise on 50% of what he wanted, and come back for the other 50% later. But his BELIEF SYSTEM was CONSERVATIVE.

What we’re seeing in McCain is someone that believes it’s OK to infringe on the first amendment at election time, it’s not OK to use harsh interrogation techniques (due to his own experience), and that we should allow everyone and their dogs in from Mexico despite what it does to our economy and culture.

THESE ARE MCCAIN’S CORE BELIEFS, AND THEY AREN’T CONSERVATIVE!

The comparison to Reagan’s compromises is fallacious.

[twigs]

I agree. This sniping by conservatives is destroying us from within. I agree with a lot of the issues they bring up, but it’s time to unite now and DEFEAT the DEMOCRATS.

[MrB]

It’s NOT time to unite yet - once the nominee is chosen, THEN we defeat the Dems.

Right now, we’re fighting to preserve the definition of conservatism, and defining the party. That’s what primaries are for.

[listenhillary]

We have enough hate filled unstable people in the Republican tent already. I think I’m going to step out of the tent for some air for a couple of years.

[greyfoxx39]

While most of Kathryn Lopez' National Review contributors fawn all over Romney, Geraghty takes an honest look at the race.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

MITT ROMNEY, JOHN MCCAIN, MIKE HUCKABEE

Looking Ahead to Super Tuesday

A McCain-friendly strategist looks at the Super Tuesday map and sees some opportunities for Romney, but probably not enough. Massachusetts (41 delegates) is a gimme (probably by a wide margin), and if the pro-Romney turnout from Mormons in Utah (36 delegates) is on par with the turnout in Nevada, it should be in the Romney pile. Romney has some high-profile endorsements in Missouri (58 delegates) and Colorado (a caucus state, 46 delegates), so presumably with those endorsees' help in the ground game, he could do okay.

One poll in Colorado looks good for Romney. The last ones in Missouri have shown Huckabee, McCain, and Romney all pretty close together.

Looking at the other states...

Alaska? (29 delegates) I've found only one poll in this state, from December, and it put Ron Paul in first place.

Arizona? (53 delegates, winner take all) McCain.

Arkansas? (34 delegates, allocated by district and who wins statewide) Huckabee, obviously.

Alabama? (48 delegates, mixed, somewhat proportional) Probably Huckabee, but some polls show McCain close.

California (173 delegates, divided by congressional district) will be this insane dogfight, with delegates distributed on a per-congressional-district basis, but McCain's ahead of Romney and Huckabee in current polls. With the Rudy endorsement and the help of Rudy's ground game operations, McCain should walk away with at least a healthy plurality, if not a majority of California's delegates.

Connecticut? (30 delegates, winner take all) Looking good for McCain.

Delaware? (18 delegates,winner take all) A lot of folks figured this was Giuliani territory, but I found one poll giving it to Romney.

Georgia? (72 delegates, winner take all) Most folks have been giving it to Huckabee, and polls concur.

Illinois? (70 delegates, based more or less by district) The latest poll puts McCain up, 31 percent to 20 percent. Romney will walk away with some delegates, but it'll probably be another silver medal.

Minnesota? (40 delegates, a hopelessly complicated caucus system) A Star-Tribune poll from last fall put Giuliani in first, McCain in second.

Hugh Hewitt puts Montana (25 delegates) in Romney's pile, and if Romney's run strong anywhere so far, it's been the west. Even though it's a caucus, it's effectively winner take all.

New Jersey? (52 delegates, winner take all) McCain led with Giuliani in it. We'll have to see where the Rudy voters go, but you figure the endorsement will bring over at least some of them.

? (101 delegates, winner take all) Similar story to New Jersey - McCain was up with Giuliani in it; he should remain in front.

North Dakota? (26 delegates, winner take all if he gets more than two thirds, otherwise proportionally). I cannot find any polls for North Dakota. Mitt Romney won a straw poll out there with 29 percent. I'll put it in his pile.

Oklahoma? (41 delegates, some to who wins each district, some to who wins statewide) The most recent poll puts McCain up; before that it was Huckabee.

Tennessee (55 delegates, winner takes all if they hit 50 percent, otherwise based on who wins each district and 13 to who wins statewide): A January poll had Thompson in first place, but Huckabee well ahead of McCain and Romney.

West Virginia (30 delegates, but only 9 on primary day, 3 per congressional district): The only poll I could find was from nearly a year ago. For what it's worth, it put McCain way ahead of Romney or Huckabee, but in March of last year, few had heard of those guys.

In the Romney pile, we’ll probably have about five to seven wins, and the delegates most of Massachusetts, all of Utah, all of Montana, most of Colorado, all of Missouri, and if that poll is correct, all of Delaware, and perhaps most of North Dakota's. And he’ll get some of California’s.

I put him at about 200 to 250 delegates.

In the Huckabee pile, we’ll have Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and maybe he’ll get some of California’s.

I put him around 200.

In the McCain pile, we’ll have all of Arizona, all of New York, all of New Jersey, all of Connecticut, probably the largest chunk of California’s, probably most of Minnesota's, probably majorities in Oklahoma and West Virginia.

I put him around somewhere north of 400 delegates.

Alaska may go for Ron Paul, and he may get a majority of their 29 delegates.

That would put things at about McCain at 500+ (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney at 325, Huckabee at 230 or so.

01/30 04:13 PM

 

The Campaign Spot

[tomnbeverly]

LOL... This is amazing and exactly whay I have been saying for quite some time. John Mcain is so much like Ronald Reagan...However that may scare some Republicans... And the Talking Heads like Rush and Sean are hell bent on not supporting Mcain... I truly know that Mcain is the true Conservative... Romney is fake as the day is long... He abondoned core conservative principles for political gain in the leftist state of MA. I also don’t want the big dig in DC... No thanks Romney... I will invoke Reagan and vote for Mcain...

[HamiltonJay]

Save your breath, those that need to hear your message will not listen... they are determined to marginalize themselves into oblivion.

[GOPRaleigh]

“This sniping by conservatives is destroying us from within. I agree with a lot of the issues they bring up, but it’s time to unite now and DEFEAT the DEMOCRATS.”

Glad to see you’re on board with defeating McCain.

Actually, as a conservative I’m more interested in defeating liberalism. McCain is just another liberal to defeat...

[counterpunch]

I agree.
So let’s unite behind Mitt.

[TChris]

Dear Victor:

A McCain presidency would be no victory.

Sincerely,
Conservatives

[dba.adabas]

I don’t care how you slice it...the Clinton’s need a smackdown. They are destroying our country, our children, our ethics, our belief systems, our political process, our general way of being (I could go on and on) with their own self-absorbed narcism.

It’s time for them to go...

[Graybeard58]

will veto wasteful government spending like no President since Ford (which in my view was the one area where Ford was better than Reagan)

Earned Income Tax credit, proposed by Nixon, signed into law by Gerald Ford and increased under every administration since, without exception. the monster that can never be killed is one of the most truly communistic measures ever.

[Niteranger68]

LOL... This is amazing and exactly whay I have been saying for quite some time. John Mcain is so much like Ronald Reagan...However that may scare some Republicans... And the Talking Heads like Rush and Sean are hell bent on not supporting Mcain... I truly know that Mcain is the true Conservative... Romney is fake as the day is long... He abondoned core conservative principles for political gain in the leftist state of MA. I also don’t want the big dig in DC... No thanks Romney... I will invoke Reagan and vote for Mcain...

McCain like Reagan? No dice. Do you want me to count the number of ways McCain has screwed the conservative base?

[UCANSEE2]

“they are determined to marginalize themselves into oblivion.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xou-FpDTHSE

[Greg F]

The big threat from McCain is amnesty. He keeps saying he’ll secure the borders “first.” But after that we suspect, with good reason, an amnesty bill. That will legalize 20 million or so illegals, with 80 million more to come through family reunification. Given that these illegals are Mexican nationals, used to corrupt machine politics and left wing socialist solutions to problems, “we” conservatives will likely be out of power for many decades to come after amnesty. With any luck the borders can’t be “straight face” declared secure before a McCain first term ends and he’s too old to run again.

My “solution” is to urge every Republican and conservative to get involved in the anti-amnesty groups. We’ll have that fight on our hands if McCain, Obama, or Hillary ends up president . . . Romney as well since he is a big-business, go with the flow, Rockefeller Republican type. Getting involved and organized on the issue gives us the chance to flame the effort out again in the Senate or Congress even with a President that is pushing the bill and ready to sign it.

[N. Theknow]

Despite McCain’s 82-percent career ranking by the American Conservative Union, and his support for balanced budgets, an end to pork-barrel spending and earmarks, strong support for the war, and expressed regret over once supporting the Bush illegal immigration reform package

That does it.

I am going to have to get a TV for the shower.

I miss so much when I am in there.

The "Bush" illegal immigration reform?

Must be akin to Bush-Feingold and the Bush-Keating 5 and the Bush Gang of 14 and......

[OldSmaj]

...destroying McCain and turning the White House over to the Clintons again is sheer madness.

I think you seriously underestimate the real intelligence of true conservatives.

No true conservative will vote for Hillary, under any circumstances, in lieu of McCain.

As bad as McCain is for true conservatives, he is leagues away from a Hillary or Hussein.

I will do as all other true conservatives will do...I will hold my nose and maybe puke a little into my mouth...and pull the damn lever for McCain, if he is the nominee.

Hillary and/or Hussein are the real dangers to our republic and to even suggest that a true conservative would entertain furthering a presidency by either of them is wrong.

As far as abstaining from voting...the same applies.

A non-vote is a vote for Hillary or Hussein.

I think we'll all do the right thing.