Harper's minority still rules to make Canadian history

When Stephen Harper celebrates his second anniversary as Prime Minister on Wednesday, he will have kept his minority government alive longer than any other Conservative in Canadian history.

While minority governments last an average of 16 months, the ones that exceed their natural life expectancy tend to be Liberal. William Lyon Mackenzie King kept his first minority alive for more than three years while one under Lester Pearson survived well past its second birthday.

In contrast, Joe Clark's Conservative minority collapsed after six months. Arthur Meighen's 1926 government lasted just 88 days.

David Docherty, a political scientist at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., said Conservative minorities struggle to survive because they lack convenient allies in the House of Commons. "It is always tougher for a Conservative government in Canada ... because the Conservatives always have to hop over the Liberals to make a deal with the NDP -- which is just unnatural," he said. Pearson and Pierre Trudeau both turned to the NDP for support, pushing through legislation that pleased the left. King depended on the Progressive Party to support him and thwart Meighen.

Indeed, part of the reason for the current government's longevity is its ability to occasionally lean on the Bloc Quebecois for support, a luxury not available to previous Conservative minorities. Mr. Harper has also benefited from the disarray in the Liberal party and the election fatigue that followed the 2004 and 2006 federal elections, according to Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto political science professor.

"People didn't want to have to go to the polls three times in two years," Mr. Wiseman said. "If we have another election and it is a minority, then that one might last for three years. People just don't want to have to keep going to the polls and politicians don't want to be on the hustings all the time."

Mr. Harper also appears to have taken lessons from past Conservative minorities. While Mr. Clark pushed forward with his agenda without regard for his government's minority status, the current Prime Minister has been more "strategic," according to Mr. Docherty.

"Harper has been pretty good at picking and choosing where he's going to be active," he said. "With the last Conservative government under Clark, they were desperate to do things, to govern as if they had a majority. Harper's been more willing to wait."

Observers note there is a difference between moving slowly and not moving at all. From slashing the GST to increasing funding for the military, Mr. Harper has managed to implement many of his election promises. Experts note his success is not uncommon for a prime minister leading a minority government.

While minorities may be portrayed as fragile and ineffectual, this is rarely the case, perhaps because the uncertainty of their position puts pressure on the government to win over voters with popular measures.

"One could make the case that Pearson, who never led a majority government, had some of the most active governments that Canada has seen," Mr. Docherty said.

"It is a misnomer to say that minority governments are not activist governments. They really are capable of getting things done."

What happened next: Progressive Conservatives won the largest majority in Canadian history

Canadian Political Tide Possibly Turning for Energy Trusts

The headline of the Bloomberg article reads: "Harper May Be Toppled as Canada Lawmakers Debate Economy, War." Indeed, due to a sluggish economy and discontent over the country's continued military presence in Afghanistan, Canada's minority parties are thinking about bringing down the government in the Spring. In a parliamentary system like theirs, national elections can be brought about anytime if the ruling coalition loses a confidence vote; being a minority ruling coalition-holding the most seats of any party, but not more than half-is a particularly tenuous, and usually temporary, condition that makes national elections in Canada this year a very real possibility. What does this have to do with Canadian energy trusts? In the bizarro-world of Canada's current energy politics, the return to power of the Liberal party would be a positive for this sector. Why? Ever since their Halloween, 2006 announcement changing the tax status of energy trusts starting in 2011 (subsequently passed into law early in 2007), rhetoric on the topic from conservatives has been so strident as to prevent any possibility of their backtracking and altering their plan.

Thus, the Liberals have filled the void, promising to either extend that conversion deadline out to 2017 or to significantly decrease the trusts' post-2011 tax rate. Either of these would represent huge positives for the trusts and this strange situation of the liberals-as-energy-trust-defenders explains why many life-long conservatives from the Albertan energy patch are devoted to helping bring down this government.

All that said, while national elections are increasingly likely, they are not a done deal by any stretch. In fact, all you need to know for now was said in the last paragraph of the above-referenced article:

A survey conducted this month by the Strategic Counsel for the Globe and Mail newspaper showed the Liberals with 30 percent voter support, compared with 36 percent for the Conservatives. The poll of 1,000 Canadians has a margin of error of 3.1 percent age points.

Unless those poll numbers start showing the Liberals with an advantage, national elections will remain merely an idea; no minority party is going to choose to bring on an election knowing it will not prevail. Such numbers can change very rapidly in Canada, however.

Don't rush out and buy energy trusts based on the possibility of a change in power north of the border. For now, this is merely a developing story to watch.

A very big one.

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