Posted on 02/05/2008 5:38:55 PM PST by Para-Ord.45
http://www.intrade.com/
McCain presently at 85.8% certainty
Romney at 9.5%
Barak Hussien at 53.9%
Hillary at 47.4%
Landslide *
What is this? Looks like some numbers to me.
As a character in this old RPG game I still play sometimes says:
We’re doomed, we’re all doomed”.
He’s right.
It remains to be seen. But Romney could lose even if he comes in number one in numerous states, if, as I would expect, McCain continues making deals with Huckabee and RonPaul. Romney was first in West Virginia, but got no delegates.
Basically, that would seem to mean that Romney is screwed unless he can get a clear majority of the votes or the delegates in any state.
What a cluster #%@*...
Leisure Suit Larry?
open an account, place your bets.
Many of the bettors are English (or Irish - that is where the outfit is based) and go by the polls. The same site bets on sporting events, horse races, etc. Punters laying down bets, not pols with an ax to grind, but not terribly informed about US politics, either.
Is the barf alert for the spelling?
“I hate numbers.”
Ever worry that the feeling is mutual?
“Leisure Suit Larry?”
I’m pretty sure that qualifies as an adventure game, and I remember Leisure Suit Larry when it was a text game called “soft porn adventure.” Now I feel old.
Same thing happened to Reagan.
He was not an inside guy and he got hammered all over the place with pap like that.
That only matters in the caucus or convention states. Primaries go strictly on the vote totals.
I think Intrade is cool.
One of the contracts is the chance of a brokered convention, which is interesting that the GOP chances have gone down from >25% down to 6% while the Dem chances have gone up to 15%.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DEM.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Democratic Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M Trade 11.0 20.0 15.0 370 +3.9
REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M Trade 6.0 28.7 6.0 349 -4.0
Posted by Kevmo to Red Steel
On News/Activism 01/30/2008 4:16:17 PM PST · 3 of 3
Polls aren’t as accurate as prediction markets.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
The funny thing I see, over and over and over is that some freeper points out that “on some particular incident X, the Prediction Markets got it wrong” as if that somehow negates the overall effectiveness of Prediction Markets versus Poll Results.
But in this election cycle, the process was taken one step further. Poll results are generated by the MSM, and the MSM demonstrates a huge liberal bias and they obviously tilted the polls to show anticonservative results. Those polls were used to exclude the most conservative candidate from the debates in the EARLIEST PRIMARIES. So, we had biased media conducting biased polls and using that biased data to exclude the candidate they didn’t like, even though he had won a delegate and some of those jerks who had higher poll results hadn’t a single delegate to their name.
On Poll Results and the End of Conservatism
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951282/posts
It will end up with Hitlery and McNut in November. In which case NcNut will not win. When the Democratic machine get threw with NcNut he will go in a rage and sulk.
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