Post-Super Tuesday GOP total vote/delegate count and analysis

Self | feb 6, 2008 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

This is a post Super Tuesday analysis of the overall, nation-wide vote and delegate count for the GOP. The delegate count is projected based on final division of delegates, particularly from California. The total vote count is as of 9:00 AM MST:

	GOP Total National Vote/Delegate Analysis after Super Tuesday (2/5/200)
	Total	Total	Projected	Votes per	Delegate	Percent of
	Popular vote	Percent	Delegates	Delegate	Percentage	Del. to Win
McCain	4,785,000	42.46%	640	7,477	56.14%	53.78%
Romney	4,095,000	36.34%	320	12,797	28.07%	26.89%
Huckabee	2,390,000	21.21%	180	13,278	15.79%	15.13%
Total	11,270,000	100%	1,140	9,886	100%	1191

Clealry McCain is leading in total vote, and in delegates. His voting is producing a much more efficient delegate count that either Romney or Huckabee, and this is because of his victories in the major "winner-take-all" states. Short of that, the delegate count would be much closer.

But it is not. It is clear that Romney has a Mount Everest to climb for any hope of an overall victory. By remaining in the race he does however have the chance to influence McCain towards more conservative positions and a reconcilliation (hopefully) of some sort with the conservatives of the party...who Romney is carrying right now in the three way race with 42%.

With Huckabee's strong southern showing, his remaining in the race offers an outside prospect for a brokered convention, though it is almost certain that this would simply lead to a McCain victory in any case.

Current state count for the candidates is McCain with 12 states, Romney with 11 states, and Huckabee with 6 states.

[Jeff Head]

Just a little analysis of things as they stand

[Jeff Head]

FYI...some thoughts on things as they stand.

[JohnnyZ]

Hey Jeff, thank you for being civil throughout the race.

Can you post some of the breakdowns you used in key states like California? Thanks.

[The_Victor]

Super Tuesday (2/5/200)

Time warp. Must be the threat of the plague keeping conservatives away from the polls.

[nuconvert]

Thanks!

[wideawake]

I don't like Romney, but I think he is more electable nationally than either McCain or Huckabee.

Too bad there is so much bad blood between Huckabee and Romney - if Huckabee threw his delegates to Romney the GOP would be in better shape in November.

[AuntB]

And yet, the news this morning claims Huck is beating Romney. My goodness, the media is an expert at marginalization.

The way these delegates are assigned is terrible.

[Domandred]

his remaining in the race offers an outside prospect for a brokered convention

Problem here is that in a brokered convention McCain will lock it up much much easier than any one else.

[Son House]

Romney keeps the math in, too bad Republicans prefer open liberal arts.

[Son House]

Romney keeps the math in, too bad Republicans prefer liberal arts.

[Jeff Head]

Exactly. Which is what my entire sentence said as well:

With Huckabee's strong southern showing, his remaining in the race offers an outside prospect for a brokered convention, though it is almost certain that this would simply lead to a McCain victory in any case.

[Domandred]

Honestly right now I’m hoping for a strange luck miracle alliance between Romney and Huckabee.

I know that will rankle a lot of supporters in both camps but it’s less disastrous to the GOP then getting McCain the nomination.

[rob777]

"And yet, the news this morning claims Huck is beating Romney."


Unfortunately, that is a fallacy which some on this site have been parroting.

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome JohnnyZ. In the end...when all the dust and smoke clears...we will still be allies against the much more dangerous threats to all of our liberites, way of life, and values. No sense in PO'ing each other off so much that people can't get past their offense and then we end up being fractured in front of a much more dangerous enemy.

As to the CA numbers, they are at this point based on more of a best guess (what some would call a WAG) looking at the vote totals on the various web sites and news outlets. I beleive the numbers will be close.

[Jeff Head]

Dang-it...missed that one.

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome.

[JRochelle]

It is over for Mitt and Huckabee.

I am sure he has people whispering in his ear to keep going.

The only way either of those guys goes anywhere is if McCain says some rascist or dumb thing, or he drops dead.

Other than that, they should quit.

[Jeff Head]

Huckabee did do better than expected...and Romney did not do as well as expected. That's why they call it a Huckabee victory. Bit it's how they"feel" about it, don't you know?...irrespective of what the actual numbers show.

Fact is, Romney's lead over Huckabee in vote and delegate count increased last night...just not nearly as much as we would have hoped.

[Jeff Head]

I htink Romney can serve a useful purpose...if he is willing...to rack up more wins and possibly influence McCain towards more conservative positions. If Huckabee remains in to try and blunt that, there is still an outside chance of McCain not winning enough delegates for an out and out victory.

That would punctuate the influence...but still almost assuredly result in a McCain victory when Huckabee released his delegates to McCain.

So, for that reason, I hope Romney remains in it.

[A_Niceguy_in_CA]

I have McCain at about 700 delegates.

McCain won every county in CA except Shasta and Sierra.

Romney might of picked up a few CD majorities in counties he lost by narrow margins to McCain, such as in Orange and San Diego counties.

At his best, I see Romney topping out at 30 CA delegates (10 CD majorities) and McCain gaining at minimum 140 CA delegates (43 districts)