Posted on 02/09/2008 11:12:03 PM PST by ventana
FLASH: More Dems than Republicans voted in Cornwall on Feb. 5
There were 1063 people who voted in the Democratic presidential primary in Cornwall on Tuesday, and 990 who voted in the Republican primary. It was likely the first time that any election in Cornwall brought out more Democratic voters than Republican. (Cornwall has 3070 registered Republicans and 2340 registered Democrats.)
"It's a historic election," says Arthur Davidson, chair of the Cornwall Democratic Committee. "This has never happened before. An African-American running for the Democratic nomination for president..and a woman... If this doesn't get you excited about politics, nothing would."
What do you expect? This is New York.
Uninspired votes count just as much. Pollsters have at times had a problem with this. One reason you see huge swings in Gallup polls is because they base so much of their likely voter model on “enthusiasm.”
In non presidential years enthusiasm can be a big deal (1994, 2006, etc.) as many presidential election regulars stay home, but for presidential elections past electoral behavior is a much better guide than enthusiasm. In other words a person who has voted before but says he isn’t enthusiastic is still more likely to vote than someone who hasn’t voted before who says he is enthusiastic.
Well, nationally, the Democrats have two solidly Liberal frontrunners. Their base is energized and excited. They will support either nominee in the general election.
The Republicans have had a dismal group of candidates for the past few weeks; the party is divided; the Mainstream Media, Independents and RINOs have selected out frontrunners, which include the Republican politician most despised by real Republicans and a Liberal Evangelical who reminds a lot of people of a TV preacher.
I wonder why Republicans aren’t excited right now?
This is by design, 10 years in the making, hence, my tagline:
I believe this is going to be the trend nationwide. Strong conservatives were cast aside in favor of moderates and the base just isn’t energized.
The complacency of the right will hand the country to socialism. The GOP marching left will help.
IMO this confirms a real problem for whatever ticket runs in the general. I hope McCain is happy with his worthless and ultimately damaging victory. From where I stand he appears to have won the battle only to really flame out in the war.
This is typical liberalism. Gee, nothing would make me more excited about politics than a black man and a woman running for President?
Gee...how about...smaller government...lowering taxes...addressing energy issues by authorizing exploration, enhancing our military, tort reform, etc. etc. etc.
I am so damned sick of liberalism and its inability to see anything more than race, sex, victimhood and class warfare.
Yeah. This is New York alright.
Well, Iowa had a chance to pick a solid conservative, and instead fell for Mike Huckabee’s religious snake oil, while fatally damaging the campaign of the best conservative in the race, Fred Thompson. Ultimately, I believe, Iowa is to blame.
Maybe it's all according to plan. After all, he IS a known back-stabbing POS.
Yeah, and the irony is that they'll blame the base when they lose.
Democrat contributions are out pacing republicans at about the same 2 to 1 ratio.
Republican leaders are puzzled.
They just can't understand what is wrong.
Hmmm - maybe they need to move a little more further to the left, kill what is left of the Border Fence, push gasoline and food prices a little higher, help Teddy Kennedy pass a few more new entitlement bills.
Click here for the fall 2007 pdf copy of the Rising Tide, the party's magazine, and scroll down to page 16 for the article, The Lessons of the 2006 Election
Apparently that didn’t work, copy and paste this url,
www.gop.com/images/RisingTide_Fall07_finalRef.pdf
Of course the dems will have a higher turnout! Their race is a dead heat, the reps race is a blowout. It will take a miracle for McCain to not win the nomination.
Fred was the clearest conservative but he wasn’t the most electable. And I think he knew all along from the beginning that he wasn’t going to win.
Whether he was the most electable conservative probably depends on whether you consider John McCain or Rudy Giuliani to be conservatives.
Of the top 5 candidates (Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson) here’s how I see electability
1) McCain
2) Giuliani
3) Thompson
4) Romney
5) Huckabee
My own order of preference:
1) Thompson
2) Giuliani
3) Romney
4) McCain
5) Huckabee
I do find it amusing how many people on here assume that whoever their preferred candidate is also happens to be the most likely to win. While I factor electability into my list of considerations, I put a number of other factors ahead of it, and I’m not delusional in thinking a candidate that agrees with me is destined to win.
electability doesn’t just mean “looks good on tv” but also “do they have the political capabilities and connections to get the job done?”
What was Rudy thinking for staying in Florida all this time? Why was Fred just asleep until the SC debate where he finally decided to wake up?
Huckabee was probably the most electable behind mcCain because of his decade as governor as well as his grass roots organization. But nobody was a serious match for mccain, a well seasoned pro who would have received the nomination in 2000 if not for the fact that Governor Bush’s last name is...Bush.
I think Huckabee was the “looks good on tv” cadidate. His bizarre policy positions caught up with him among pretty much everyone who isn’t an evangelical.
“What was Rudy thinking staying in Florida all this time?”
Rudy put effort into Iowa and had little to show for it. He put money into New Hampshire, but they love McCain there, and when polls showed him having no traction he moved on. Maybe it was a mistake, and maybe he should have poured money into Michigan. He certainly had more applicable experience there than either McCain or Romney, but he didn’t do it.
I think ultimate Giuliani was a victim of strategic voting in Florida. People who liked him, but didn’t like McCain voted Romney. People who liked Giuliani but didn’t like Romney voted McCain. In each case they did so because they assumed a vote for Giuliani was a waste.
“Why was Fred just asleep until the SC debate where he finally decided to wake up?”
That’s pretty harsh, if probably true. Thompson had detailed position papers supporting real reform, and an across-the-board mainstream conservative voting record. If Republican primary voters had focused on that, instead of on who made the most noise at the debates, Thompson would probably have won the nomination.
Yeah I know a candidate is supposed to run a good campaign to attract voters, and that Thompson (and Giuliani) didn’t, but it still annoys me when all the blame is put on the candidate. It seems to me it’s the responsibility of the voters to find the best candidate, not fall for a flashy message or some lofty rhetoric.
If they wanted a conservative, they should have found one and voted for him, not vote for someone else and blame the conservative for running a poor campaign. Sure Thompson may have run a lousy campaign, but it wasn’t nearly as lousy as Iowa Republicans’ choice of candidate.
How many voted from the cemetary?
well Huckabee and Romney were for ethanol and farm subsidies and McCain and Fred were not. So that helps explains why Huck came on top and Romney came in second.
Farmers have a lot of control over the entire country because they know that candidates will need to pander to them in order to get momentum for the next primaries. McCain figured out how to win without Iowa but it was a big risk. He had NH but if Romney won Iowa, he would have taken NH and be on a roll.
Fred needed more than papers. We really wanted the “original” fred who bashed Michael moore on his blog. We never heard from that Fred again...we wanted “Law and Order” from him and he didn’t deliver.
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