Twenty percent of Democrats doubt electability of either Obama or Clinton

The Collins Report ^ | February 13th, 2008 | John F. Allen

[Mase]

For whatever reasons, those candidates failed. They didn't gather enough support. Conservatives didn't turn out in large enough numbers to keep those candidates going. As far as I can tell, there was nothing unfair or illegal about the process that brought us to the point we are.

We had too many candidates and that resulted in a splitting of the conservative vote. Fred, who was my choice, instead of getting in early and polishing his message and delivery when few were paying attention, entered the race far too late and didn't shine in the early going. Hucklebuck, to my dismay, took the majority of the evangelical vote based on a message of Christian socialism. Romney, imho, was unelectable from the beginning because he happens to be a Mormon.

All of these variables plus one had to come together for McCain to get the momentum he needed to be the front runner. The other variable was a system that allows independents to vote in the Republican primary. That needs to end. I also think McCain's win in Florida had a lot to do with a RINO governor with a permanent sun tan. I wouldn't be surprised if he's McCain's choice for VP.

All that notwithstanding, I'll agree that we did it to ourselves and we're going to get what we deserve as a result. McCain could help himself in a lot of conservative eyes by choosing a solid conservative as his running mate. We'll see how savvy he is by whom he chooses. Telling us to calm down doesn't increase my confidence in him. We'll see.

[chimera]

McCain could help himself in a lot of conservative eyes by choosing a solid conservative as his running mate. We'll see how savvy he is by whom he chooses.

That will be a big factor. He has to continue his outreach efforts. He made a start by speaking at CPAC the other week. If he is the nominee, he's going to have two tough jobs: bringing skeptical conservatives on board, and beating up on the 'Rat nominee. Definitely tough jobs, but he's proved himself tough before (although that was 40 years ago).

[HawaiianGecko]

If what this man is saying is true, that twenty percent of Democrats won't vote for a black man + twenty three point Bradley effect swing, then those of us that don't particularly like John McCain won't have to vote.
The problem is the following chart from Real Clear Politics suggests he is exaggerating the 13% polling advantage of Obama's the day before the CA primary.  A huge assumption is being made that the 20% that won't vote for a black guy somehow will vote for a Republican.
So I think I'll still vote for McCain just in case he needs an extra ballot in his favor.

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama	Clinton	Spread
Final Results	-	-	42.3	51.9	Clinton +9.6
RCP Average	02/01 - 02/04	-	44.0	42.8	Obama +1.2
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby	02/03 - 02/04	895 LV	49	36	Obama +13.0
SurveyUSA	02/03 - 02/04	872 LV	42	52	Clinton +10.0
Suffolk	02/01 - 02/03	700 LV	40	39	Obama +1.0
Rasmussen	02/02 - 02/02	798 LV	45	44	Obama +1.0
See All California Democratic Primary Polling Data

[chimera]

But given the public's general disgust with the GOP, it's going to be hard for any Republican to be our next President.

People I've talked to give me the impression that they're tired and just want "change". Sadly, they don't seem to care what that "change" is, they just want it. So many of them are inclined to go for Hillobama on that basis. The ironic thing is, Hillary doesn't represent "change" unless it's a back to the future kind of change, and Obama represents change that is really, really bad change, like the Russians embracing Lenin because they were so tired of the Romanovs.

Looking at the electoral map, it's going to be tough because I am almost 100% sure that we're going to lose Ohio. In that last two elections, that would have put the 'Rats in the WH. So now we have to look elsewhere for 20 electoral votes, and a candidate who can deliver them. The pickings look mighty slim at this point.

[OrioleFan]

I heard on Fox last night them say that the Obama campaign feels that McCain having to move to the right to make peace with conservatives allows them room to move toward the middle. What a crock. His voting record as the most liberal Senator will sink him.

[Nonstatist]

Hispanics were supporting Hillary because of a racial thing with blacks and Hispanics. That could be an undercurrent in the overall electoral dynamic. However, do not take that to mean that I advocate exploiting that

Say what? Whats good for the goose is good for the gander. Do the Democraps hesitate to pull out the class warfare card at every opportunity?? How many times have you heard on the MSM how its all the "Big Oil" companies and "Big Pharmaceuticals" fault?? If they advocate nationalizing corporations, they ought to just come out and say it. But all they do is demagogue

Politics aint beanbag.

[chimera]

Yeah, but the 'Rats are never criticized for doing it. If the 'Pubs do it, the media will draw and quarter them (e.g., "racists"). The 'Rats play the race card all the time, yet are never called to account, and in fact are often lauded for doing it ("They're bringing up an important subject for debate.").

No, politics ain't beanbag. But some issues are radioactive for 'Pubs, whereas 'Rats can tread without fear, because of the media and public perception. On those, the 'Pubs always seem to be the ones to get beaned, at least when it comes to public perception.

[chimera]

His voting record as the most liberal Senator will sink him.

It might, but only if people hear about it and care about it. The former will be the job of the 'Pubs and their candidate, because the MSM surely won't expose it. The latter (caring)? I don't know, but a lot of people I talk to seem to care less about the guy being an Alinsky disciple and Fabian socialist (most don't know what that means anyway) than the fact that he is "different" and represents "change". Then again, so did Hitler and Stalin. That kind of "change" we don't need.

[Rum Tum Tugger]

People I've talked to give me the impression that they're tired and just want "change". Sadly, they don't seem to care what that "change" is, they just want it.

That same mood gave us Jimmy Carter; and to a certain extent, Slick Willy.

[Nonstatist]

If the 'Pubs do it, the media will draw and quarter them

Then let the 527's do it. Just like Clinton, who threw the "Black" thing out there and then disappeared, you can do it with no fingerprints.

Face it, Obama would not become the nominee if he werent Black (ie only 3 yrs in the Senate, the most radical liberal record, etc). So why not take advantage of the flip side of that? Screw the media, they tried to demonize the Swiftboaters and that didnt work either...Goose, gander

[KC_Conspirator]

November is a LONG ways away!

[Kevmo]

That means 80% of them probably think one or the other of Obama/Clinton is already president.

[TexasRepublic]

There is no political impasse that can’t be solved by the application of more slung mud.

[OrioleFan]

Rush had a great bit today where he has someone playing Obama saying things that mean absolutely nothing but sound great to the people that don’t get it.

On the MSM role in the election process - I blame them for the candidates we are left with along with the processes in several states where voters are allowed to crossover. It looks like McCain and Obama are the MSM choices. Someone needs to rein in all these bogus polls the MSM is using to influence the independents who don’t take the time to study the candidates.

[chimera]

I remember Rush saying something like Obama's beliefs are in "hope" and "the future". Well, geez, everybody believes in those things. To coin a phrase, where's the beef? Who can be against "hope" and "the future"? But for some reason this kind of shallowness gets people fired up, so you've got them out there swooning over Obama The Savior and hanging posters of Che Guevara in campaign offices while Chris Matthews gets funny tingling in his thigh when he hears Obama speak (ewwwwww!).

[OrioleFan]

Here's the future with Obama