Twenty percent of Democrats doubt electability of either Obama or Clinton

The Collins Report ^ | February 13th, 2008 | John F. Allen

[jmaroneps37]

In all the excitement of last night’s primary results an important exit poll item was reported with no follow up comment. While gushing about how 80% of Democrat party primary voters thought “They were ready for a Black man or a woman to be president of the United States.” Hey that sounds great. Eighty percent is a big number. Nevertheless, in the world of politics sometimes less is more. These twenty percent of Democrat primary voters are obviously the most devout liberals in their party. This revelation, whether an admission or projection, indicates the converse is true, twenty percent of them DON’T think either a Black man or a woman can be acceptable as president. What do the vast number of Democrats, those who did not vote, think?

If only twenty percent of Democrats have reservations about Obama and Clinton how can either possibly win? She is a tough political operative backed by the best political consultants. It is not difficult to see them cut that number in half. Democrat voters could be persuaded to vote for her.

Obama would be a different story. He would have to deal with the Bradley Effect. In California before the air came out of Clinton’s balloon, this factor was very evident. Obama “won” every poll and the last one by 13 points. He lost by 10 points. Liberal Democrats, the ones who vote in their primaries, the heart of the Democratic Party lied and when push came to shove they could say they were backing Obama, but they could not vote for Obama. Truth be told, if Obama is the nominee the twenty percent doubt factor will be more likely to swell rather than shrink.

Twenty three points in California, twenty by admission, this election may not be a Republican defeat after all.

[jmaroneps37]

The fact that we are in February with plenty of time will be very helpful to us. The euphoria about a candidate that has nothing to offer and a record that is very alarming has a better chance of burning off with nine months to go. If all of this was happening in September it would be cause to worry. Things can change by the hour in politics.

[geo40xyz]

Its not good enough:-) Lets get this damn number into the high 80%, ASAP...

[wideawake]

Senator Clinton is beatable in a general election.

Senator Obama will be beatable in a general election because if Senator Clinton loses, she has to make sure Obama loses the general election or else she cannot run again until 2016. She will do anything she can to submarine him.

[Night Hides Not]

Its not good enough:-) Lets get this damn number into the high 80%, ASAP...

LOL!!! Yes, we need to get the number into McCain territory!

[Non-Sequitur]

Twenty percent of Democrats doubt electability of either Obama or Clinton.

And how many Republicans on this forum doubt the electability of John McCain? A whole lot more than 20% I'd be willing to bet.

[A Balrog of Morgoth]

Let’s see where we’re at after the MSM does the usual ritual disembowelment of the GOP candidate.

McThusalah is more vulnerable to this then most GOP candidates, given the fact that he doesn’t, to put it delicately, enjoy fervent support from the base.

His base of support are moderate Republicans and independents, who are easily distracted by bright shiny objects...like the one kicking the crap out of Clinton these last few weeks.

[cripplecreek]

So how many republicans doubt the electability of McQueeg or Huck?

Looking at the numbers last night wasn’t real impressive. Hillary was losing with more votes than McCain was winning with.

[Piquaboy]

Baaarack is dumb as a post and cannot answer constitutional questions correctly. If something happens to his telepromter he starts babbling.

[Sursam Abordine]

Obama also has to deal with the Wilder factor. When Doug Wilder ran for VA governor, pre-election polls had him winning by a large margin. On election day, that shrunk to single digits, about 3-5 if I remember. After the election, polls found that people did not want to admit they would not vote for the black candidate, so they lied and voted for the opponent when they got to the booth. Point is, a lot of people are so afraid they will be labeld as racists, they will lie when polled, inflating Obama's numbers. McCain isn;t that great of a candidate for me, but I doubt the numbers thrown about are accurate in a head to head.

[Fishtalk]

I was thinking your exact comment as I read the headline.

Although I agree. I don’t think Clinton’s electable, or Obama. I consider the Obama-worshippers to be a bit like that babe who sang the Youtube thing “I Love Obama”.

They love the fellow but like that singing Youtube wannabe, they don’t generally bother to vote. The love will fade through the long, hot summer, I predict.

We all see how quick they dumped Hillary when somebody, anybody, else was available. So too when up against a pubbie, that is anybody but McCain, the populace just doesn’t like the woman...this is no surprise.

And somebody upthread said something about The Hill not supporting Obama, should he get the nod, that she may have another shot in four years. Which is a good point.

But not mentioned in the headline is my ingrained belief that McCain can’t win either.

so what the hey? We got three candidates running and NONE OF THEM CAN WIN?

Heh.

These two political parties need to seriously overhaul their primary process as the result does not reflect the will of the people in any fashion. This without the mess that will be the Dem convention.

[Mase]

Twenty percent of Democrats doubt electability of either Obama or Clinton

And eighty percent of conservatives doubt the electability of McCain.

[yldstrk]

McCain HAS to be elected and if the pouting people stay home, then the same thing will occur that let the Clintons into office in the first place. Take heed and don’t pout.

[shuckmaster]

They may doubt it but you can bet they will be there voting for it.

[chimera]

Obama will be tough to beat. Almost everyone I talk to has this thing about "change". They are just tired. And when they are, they look to someone new and fresh. No matter that he's an empty-suit Fabian socialist. If McCain is the nominee, people will look at them side by side and being visual creatures will see an old, wrinkled, white-haired man who represents the same old same old, against a young, vigorous, dark, handsome guy who exudes charisma and charm who embodies the "change" theme. At the risk of inciting flames from my FR sister-en, I have a feeling that female voters will be especially susceptible to this phenomenon.

If Huck is the nominee, there will be less visual differences, but the media and the 'Rats will go absolutely ape$heet over his religious background ("Do you really want an evangelical creationist leading the country?"). If he's our nominee, I'll support him, but I have a feeling he'll be lucky to carry a few southern states at best, while Obama will pile up 400+ electoral votes elsewhere.

[ilgipper]

Older people are the most reliable to turn out to vote, and I don’t see Obama winning anywhere close to a majority of this group. Older men, especially. They’ll vote for the war hero. Unless McCain pulls a Dole and falls of the stage, this election will be a close one. Too much is at stake and obama is an extreme leftist out of touch with 85% of the electorate.

[HD1200]

you write: And eighty percent of conservatives doubt the electability of McCain.

Care to support that statement about 80%?

There are not many more conservative than me & my family, but we will vote for McCain. We understand & appreciate the necessity of winning this November. I have two sons in the United States military and I don’t want them answering to a President Obama or Clinton and I ask your help in making sure they don’t have to....

[yldstrk]

Thank you and your sons for your service to our country.

[HD1200]

You write: obama is an extreme leftist out of touch with 85% of the electorate.

How do you know that? Nobody in the press has bothered to ask him to be specific about anything, and his positions on almost everything are artfully vague to date....

[weegee]

And what do polls say about an Obama-Hillary or Hillary-Obama ticket?

[HD1200]

Thank you. 1 US Marines & 1 US Air Force.

[weegee]

McCain will get more crossover voters in the general election than Obama or Hillary will get.

But I will add that percentage wise, McCain will not get as many crossover voters in the general that he got in the primary.

[HD1200]

Hillary would never be VP to Obama. That in my opinion is a certainty. Her ego would not allow it. 8 years of sitting in a VP chair instead of the Senate? No way.

Obama’s ego will not let him take a VP position under Hillary. Additinally, he would be unable to make another run in 2012 without seeming to be disloyal to his superior if he accepted a VP position. Much better for Obama to sit in the Senate for 4 years sniping at Hillary and running again.

[Rum Tum Tugger]

While it's only based on anecdotal evidence, my sense is that the electorate is very ready to remove the GOP from the White House.

I agree that Obama and Hillary are not the strongest candidates that the Rats could run. However, either of them has a very good chance of beating a Republican candidate as weak as McCain.

The only wildcard is that if Obama is nominated, race could play a significant factor. But given the public's general disgust with the GOP, it's going to be hard for any Republican to be our next President.

[TYVets]

Twenty percent of Democrats doubt electability of either Obama or Clinton

And eighty percent of conservatives doubt the electability of McCain.

Obama, Clinton, McCain, Huckabee all terrible choices.

[VRWCmember]

given the fact that he doesn’t, to put it delicately, enjoy fervent support from the base.

None of the candidates in the GOP race enjoyed fervent support from the base. But nothing will unite the base into fervently supporting the eventual nominee like a hillary nomination from the dems.

[Tulane]

HD I am with you.

No way in hell am I letting my kids be under an Obama Commander In Chief.

It makes me so mad to read the comments about McCain from these self annointed “true conservatives.” Give me a break. McCain isn’t perfect, but he is light years better than Obama.

[Beagle8U]

Its hard for FReepers to predict election outcomes because most of us don’t hang out with stupid people and the stupid are the majority of voters.

I think even allowing for the race factor that Hildabeast is easier to beat. Obama will bring enough extra stupid people to the polls to more than make up for race factor losses.

Ralph Nader is thinking about running again and that could save us.

Best case : The RATS have a nasty convention battle and give the nomination to Hildabeast.

McCain picks a real conservative as VP.

Nader/Kooksinish run as Ind moonbats.

[TYVets]

McCain picks a real conservative as VP.

Someone posted to an earlier thread that 2 things had to happen for her/him to vote for McCain in November.

1. McCain picks a real conservative as VP.

2. McCain dies before election day.

[chimera]

The ‘Pubs will have to effectively counter his youth and charisma by bringing out the details of his radical stance on most issues. That might be effective in bringing people around. I heard the other night about one of his votes in the Illinois legislature concerning the born-alive-after-abortion bill, basically affording protection for infants who survive abortion by declaring them persons as they lay alive on the table. Obama would not vote for it. To me, that’s a pretty radical stand that most people would recoil from. Perhaps this would be a place to start?

[Beagle8U]

I don’t like McCain but I’m not going to wish for him to die.

[Mase]

Care to support that statement about 80%?

Just from reading the comments on FR I'd say that the vast majority aren't happy about McCain being the nominee nor do they think he has much of a chance against an energized Democratic base.

That said, I would never stay home (too many have sacrificed to defend my right to vote and I would never dishonor them) nor would I ever vote for a Dem or third-party. No, the only real choice is to hold my nose and vote for the guy who wants to win in Iraq.

Outside of that, I think McCain is a disaster for the party and, to a lesser degree, for the country. I don't like my choices this cycle and I couldn't be more disappointed with a process (and a party) that allows liberals and RINO's to stick us with a pathetic candidate like McCain.

[chainsaw]

The democrat convention will be something to watch.

[chimera]

We understand & appreciate the necessity of winning this November. I have two sons in the United States military and I don’t want them answering to a President Obama or Clinton and I ask your help in making sure they don’t have to....

You've got mine. Too much is at stake to risk the future of the country on even a single term of a President Hillary or President Obama. Right now it looks like our choices will be either McCain or Huckabee. While each is far from ideal and I am not a fan of either, I will support either of them against Hillary or Obama. Practically speaking, I just don't see what other choices there are. I'm not going to quit the fight (i.e., stay home, or throw away my vote on some can't-win third party or write-in candidate). This win-by-losing stupid strategy I see offered here on FR and elsewhere (i.e., vote for the 'Rat so they can screw up the country and we can come back in win the next time) is nothing more than a roadmap into the political wilderness for the next 20 years (not to mention a disaster for the country), just like in 1932. We've got to do whatever it takes (within the rules) to defeat Hillobama.

[Nonstatist]

Obama will be tough to beat

He's just Gary Hart with the Black vote sewn up. I think hes a paper tiger.. If I were McInsane, Id run a couple ads adding up how much all his proposed programs would cost, fo starters. .. i dont think it will be hard to peel the Hispanics and working class whites away from that effete leftist. JMO.

[chainsaw]

Post 29

I would expect that from a Muslim. We have seen them at work in Iraq.

[chimera]

I don't like my choices this cycle and I couldn't be more disappointed with a process (and a party) that allows liberals and RINO's to stick us with a pathetic candidate like McCain.

But didn't we have valid alternatives in this primary season? We had people on the ballot early on like Fred Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter. Conservatives could have gotten behind those candidates and worked to get them the support they needed to stay in the hunt. For whatever reasons, those candidates failed. They didn't gather enough support. Conservatives didn't turn out in large enough numbers to keep those candidates going. As far as I can tell, there was nothing unfair or illegal about the process that brought us to the point we are. Our candidates simply didn't get enough votes. That's how our system works. If we're now faced with less than optimum choices, it's because we lost, that's all. Now we have to play the best game we can with what we've got. Either that or quit. And quitting a fight is not a conservative value, last I heard.

[jetson]

Let's stop and think here. . McCain, Clinton and Obama are the choices.HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE!

[TYVets]

I don’t like McCain but I’m not going to wish for him to die

I think the person who made that reply was stating that there were 2 chances of her/him voting for McCain, slim and none.

[chimera]

Good suggestion on the program cost angle. If Obama gets the nod, the 'Pubs will have to go all-out to highlight Obama's Alinsky-Fabian socialist tilt.

I heard on some commentaries on the Hillary-Obama primary contests that Hispanics were supporting Hillary because of a racial thing with blacks and Hispanics. That could be an undercurrent in the overall electoral dynamic. However, do not take that to mean that I advocate exploiting that. We need to focus on character and leadership and experience and stands on issues.

[TYVets]

Let's stop and think here. . McCain, Clinton and Obama are the choices.HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE!

The two party system has failed miserably.

[Mase]

For whatever reasons, those candidates failed. They didn't gather enough support. Conservatives didn't turn out in large enough numbers to keep those candidates going. As far as I can tell, there was nothing unfair or illegal about the process that brought us to the point we are.

We had too many candidates and that resulted in a splitting of the conservative vote. Fred, who was my choice, instead of getting in early and polishing his message and delivery when few were paying attention, entered the race far too late and didn't shine in the early going. Hucklebuck, to my dismay, took the majority of the evangelical vote based on a message of Christian socialism. Romney, imho, was unelectable from the beginning because he happens to be a Mormon.

All of these variables plus one had to come together for McCain to get the momentum he needed to be the front runner. The other variable was a system that allows independents to vote in the Republican primary. That needs to end. I also think McCain's win in Florida had a lot to do with a RINO governor with a permanent sun tan. I wouldn't be surprised if he's McCain's choice for VP.

All that notwithstanding, I'll agree that we did it to ourselves and we're going to get what we deserve as a result. McCain could help himself in a lot of conservative eyes by choosing a solid conservative as his running mate. We'll see how savvy he is by whom he chooses. Telling us to calm down doesn't increase my confidence in him. We'll see.

[chimera]

McCain could help himself in a lot of conservative eyes by choosing a solid conservative as his running mate. We'll see how savvy he is by whom he chooses.

That will be a big factor. He has to continue his outreach efforts. He made a start by speaking at CPAC the other week. If he is the nominee, he's going to have two tough jobs: bringing skeptical conservatives on board, and beating up on the 'Rat nominee. Definitely tough jobs, but he's proved himself tough before (although that was 40 years ago).

[HawaiianGecko]

If what this man is saying is true, that twenty percent of Democrats won't vote for a black man + twenty three point Bradley effect swing, then those of us that don't particularly like John McCain won't have to vote.
The problem is the following chart from Real Clear Politics suggests he is exaggerating the 13% polling advantage of Obama's the day before the CA primary.  A huge assumption is being made that the 20% that won't vote for a black guy somehow will vote for a Republican.
So I think I'll still vote for McCain just in case he needs an extra ballot in his favor.

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama	Clinton	Spread
Final Results	-	-	42.3	51.9	Clinton +9.6
RCP Average	02/01 - 02/04	-	44.0	42.8	Obama +1.2
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby	02/03 - 02/04	895 LV	49	36	Obama +13.0
SurveyUSA	02/03 - 02/04	872 LV	42	52	Clinton +10.0
Suffolk	02/01 - 02/03	700 LV	40	39	Obama +1.0
Rasmussen	02/02 - 02/02	798 LV	45	44	Obama +1.0
See All California Democratic Primary Polling Data

[chimera]

But given the public's general disgust with the GOP, it's going to be hard for any Republican to be our next President.

People I've talked to give me the impression that they're tired and just want "change". Sadly, they don't seem to care what that "change" is, they just want it. So many of them are inclined to go for Hillobama on that basis. The ironic thing is, Hillary doesn't represent "change" unless it's a back to the future kind of change, and Obama represents change that is really, really bad change, like the Russians embracing Lenin because they were so tired of the Romanovs.

Looking at the electoral map, it's going to be tough because I am almost 100% sure that we're going to lose Ohio. In that last two elections, that would have put the 'Rats in the WH. So now we have to look elsewhere for 20 electoral votes, and a candidate who can deliver them. The pickings look mighty slim at this point.

[OrioleFan]

I heard on Fox last night them say that the Obama campaign feels that McCain having to move to the right to make peace with conservatives allows them room to move toward the middle. What a crock. His voting record as the most liberal Senator will sink him.

[Nonstatist]

Hispanics were supporting Hillary because of a racial thing with blacks and Hispanics. That could be an undercurrent in the overall electoral dynamic. However, do not take that to mean that I advocate exploiting that

Say what? Whats good for the goose is good for the gander. Do the Democraps hesitate to pull out the class warfare card at every opportunity?? How many times have you heard on the MSM how its all the "Big Oil" companies and "Big Pharmaceuticals" fault?? If they advocate nationalizing corporations, they ought to just come out and say it. But all they do is demagogue

Politics aint beanbag.

[chimera]

Yeah, but the 'Rats are never criticized for doing it. If the 'Pubs do it, the media will draw and quarter them (e.g., "racists"). The 'Rats play the race card all the time, yet are never called to account, and in fact are often lauded for doing it ("They're bringing up an important subject for debate.").

No, politics ain't beanbag. But some issues are radioactive for 'Pubs, whereas 'Rats can tread without fear, because of the media and public perception. On those, the 'Pubs always seem to be the ones to get beaned, at least when it comes to public perception.

[chimera]

His voting record as the most liberal Senator will sink him.

It might, but only if people hear about it and care about it. The former will be the job of the 'Pubs and their candidate, because the MSM surely won't expose it. The latter (caring)? I don't know, but a lot of people I talk to seem to care less about the guy being an Alinsky disciple and Fabian socialist (most don't know what that means anyway) than the fact that he is "different" and represents "change". Then again, so did Hitler and Stalin. That kind of "change" we don't need.

[Rum Tum Tugger]

People I've talked to give me the impression that they're tired and just want "change". Sadly, they don't seem to care what that "change" is, they just want it.

That same mood gave us Jimmy Carter; and to a certain extent, Slick Willy.

[Nonstatist]

If the 'Pubs do it, the media will draw and quarter them

Then let the 527's do it. Just like Clinton, who threw the "Black" thing out there and then disappeared, you can do it with no fingerprints.

Face it, Obama would not become the nominee if he werent Black (ie only 3 yrs in the Senate, the most radical liberal record, etc). So why not take advantage of the flip side of that? Screw the media, they tried to demonize the Swiftboaters and that didnt work either...Goose, gander