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It starts in his home state of Illinois, as Alec MacGillis reports for the Washington Post: Obama’s advisers have pointed to his success in winning over “downstate” Illinoisans as a sign of his electability, but political analysts question the claim. Obama lost most of downstate Illinois in his Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate in 2004, and his big win in the general election that year came against Alan Keyes, a black conservative with a Maryland address. In this year’s presidential primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beat Obama in southern Illinois’ struggling coal counties, highlighting the same weakness he...

Here are some interesting quotes from two small Bill Clinton events in South Bend, Ind., this morning. The first is from a Dyngus Day celebration at the West Side Democratic Club: "She can win this race, and we have got to win. And she will win in Florida. And I must say that this new strategy of denying and disempowering and disenfranchising the voters in Florida and Michigan is I believe a terrible mistake. Hillary believes their votes should be counted. And I don't know how we're gonna go to those people in the general election and say you gotta...

When Democrats contemplate the apocalypse these days, they have visions of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton slugging it out à la Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter at the 1980 convention. The campaign's current trajectory is, in fact, alarmingly similar to the one that produced that disastrous affair. Back then, Carter had built up a delegate lead with early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and several Southern states. But, as the primary season dragged on, Kennedy began pocketing big states and gaining momentum. Once all the voting ended and Kennedy came up short, he eyed the New York convention as a...

WASHINGTON -It is already easy to imagine the Republican attack ads against Barack Obama. They open with video of his wife, Michelle, saying she was proud of America "for the first time in my adult lifetime" because of her husband's presidential candidacy. Cut to the Illinois Senator explaining that he doesn't wear an American flag lapel pin because it is a "substitute for true patriotism." Then flash a clip of Obama explaining that his Caucasian grandmother was a "typical white person" because she uttered racial epithets and was afraid of black people. Finally, the coup de grace, pictures of Obama's...

No big surprise that Sen. Obama's refusal to explain why he put his family in front of such vile rhetoric and linked himself to such a divisive church has hurt him in the polls. Even Kos is acknowledging that the revelation that Sen. Obama has spent two decades associating himself with a "spiritual mentor" who hates America and white people is not the best way to win friends and influence people. Specifically, the RCP Average now shows Clinton as more competitive against McCain than Obama (although McCain leads both within the MoE). As Kos notes, SurveyUSA has new polls from...

Politicians know a troublesome story has “broken through� the Eastern media echo chamber when Jay Leno is laughing at them. In the case of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., retiring pastor and outgoing spiritual adviser to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), it took less than 48 hours. The fracas started Thursday morning, when ABC’s “Good Morning America� ran a Brian Ross expose on Wright that included old video of him saying: “The government gives them the drugs, builds bigger prisons, passes a three-strike law and then wants us to sing ‘God bless America’? No, no, no. Not God bless America....

In all the excitement of last night’s primary results an important exit poll item was reported with no follow up comment. While gushing about how 80% of Democrat party primary voters thought “They were ready for a Black man or a woman to be president of the United States.” Hey that sounds great. Eighty percent is a big number. Nevertheless, in the world of politics sometimes less is more. These twenty percent of Democrat primary voters are obviously the most devout liberals in their party. This revelation, whether an admission or projection, indicates the converse is true, twenty percent of...

John McCain is neither the inevitable Republican Nominee nor as electable as current polling data suggests for three reasons 1) the mainstream media will turn their backs on McCain as soon as he is the nominee, 2) so-called independents and moderates will not show up as strongly for McCain in the general election as in the primary, 3) McCain cannot unify the party because many important conservatives will not rally around him, and 4) McCain-Feingold will literally seal his fate because conservatives will not outlay cash in the general election for McCain. The mainstream media will turn against Senator McCain...

The question of viability for Mitt Romney comes on two levels today. First, he appears to have given up on South Carolina just a day after restarting ads in the Palmetto State. Second, a new Rasmussen poll shows Romney coming up considerably short against both of the Democratic front-runners: Just a day after his big win in Michigan, Mitt Romney ceded South Carolina to his rivals. “This is a state I’d expect that Sen. [John] McCain has pretty well wrapped up,” Romney told reporters at the Sun City Hilton Head Retirement Center in Bluffton. “It would be an enormous surprise...

I want Fred Thompson to win the Republican nomination. (Did you hear he's surging in South Carolina?) And it's not just that the other candidates stink for various and sundry reasons--which I'll run through momentarily--or that he's the best of the worst or something. I want Fred for his own reasons. Let's run through the problems with the other guys: John McCain: He marches to his own little drummer who doesn't know the conservative rhythm. Of course there's McCain-Feingold that nifty little piece of legislation who's chief beneficiary was George Soros, but there's this other little thing: his only consistent...

Twenty million, 30 million, 40 million . . . pretty soon, Mitt Romney is going to be talking about real money here. “Washington is broken,” Mitt said last night. Unfortunately, so is his campaign. Ann Romney stood behind him, wearing black, which seemed appropriate for the occasion. According to his staff, Mitt’s in it for the “long haul,” although that all depends on what the definition of the word “long” is. This morning, how’d you like to be a Romney fund raiser? Or a Romney worker in Michigan? Or a Romney anything? On the Internet message boards last night, they...

With five Republican and three Democratic presidential hopefuls in double digits in the national polls of their respective parties and with dozens of issues ranging from gay marriage to the war in Iraq, the decisions that voters will be asked to make in the next several weeks might appear quite complicated. But it shouldn’t be. Voters should take only one consideration into account in deciding who to support in their party’s upcoming caucus or primary. That consideration is which of the party’s set of possible candidates is most electable next November. Electability. Electability is always a consideration in a nomination...

Fred Thompson or Ron Paul? Like Perry and some others, I would rather see a big government Democrat elected than a big government Republican. At least that would bring back some opposition. Republicans in Congress have a much better record of reining in the Democrats' presidents than their own. And as I explain later, I think that one of these two is the only Republican candidate capable of winning the national election. Ron Paul answering the What programs? question by naming three cabinet level departments ... Wow. Good answer. If there was no rest-of-the-world, he would possibly have my vote....

It has unfolded mostly under the radar. But an important development in the 2008 Democratic battle may be the building backlash among African Americans over comments from associates of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton that could be construed as jabs at Sen. Barack Obama's race. These officials, including Clinton aides and prominent surrogates, have raised questions or dropped references about Obama's position on sentencing guidelines for crack vs. powder cocaine offenses; on his handgun control record; and on his admitted use of drugs as a youth. The context was always Obama's "electability." But the Illinois senator's campaign advisers said some African...

Vermont Right to Life is the latest statewide pro-life organization to back Fred Thompson's bid for the Republican nomination for president. Their endorsement follows on the heels of those from state pro-life groups in West Virginia, New York, Wyoming, and Wisconsin. In a statement sent to LifeNews.com, Sharon Toborg, treasurer of the Vermont Right to Life Political Committee, says the endorsement reflects Thompson's consistent pro-life views and his ability to win the nomination and general election. “It is great that so many candidates in the Republican Primary are pro-life and have been strong friends of the pro-life effort," she said....

Right Wing News emailed more than 240 right-of-center bloggers and asked them to answer 8 questions about the 2008 candidates. The following 61 blogs responded: The Absurd Report, David All Group, AtlanticBlog, The American Princess, Betsy's Page, Bit's Blog, BizzyBlog, Blogs of War, Blonde Sagacity, Bluey Blog, Boi From Troy, Bookworm Room, Keith Burgess-Jackson, Cassy Fiano, Dr. Melissa Clouthier, Cold Fury, Conservative Grapevine, Damian Penny, Dispatches from Blogblivion, Argghhhh!, Ed Driscoll, Eckernet, Musings, Fraters Libertas, Ian Schwartz, Jeff Gannon - A Voice of the New Media, Ghost of a Flea, (Michael) GOPUSA Northeast, (Hank) GOPUSA Northeast, GraniteGrok, Gocinatlanta, Guardian Watchblog,...

As Barack Obama gains on Hillary Rodham Clinton from the left in Iowa, the GOP gains on her from the right nationwide. Hillary’s triangulation scheme looks far less dominating than it did two months ago. She may be on the apex of an isosceles triangle, but the base may be too narrow for her perch to offer much comfort. Survey USA recently polled Oregon, and the results are not what “She Who Demands Media Obedience” would have dialed up. To be challenged in the primaries by a candidate appealing feverishly to the hard core base of her party is no...

Fred Thompson is the Republican most likely to beat abortion-rights supporter Rudy Giuliani, the National Right to Life Committee said Tuesday, announcing its endorsement of the former Tennessee senator for president. "While there are various polls, and some are up-and-down, the overwhelming consensus has been that he is best-positioned to top pro-abortion candidate Rudy Giuliani for the Republican nomination," the group's executive director, David N. O'Steen, said at a news conference. ...By emphasizing Thompson's political potential _ he ranks second behind former New York Mayor Giuliani in national Republican polls _ the anti-abortion group played down its own differences with...

PRINCETON, NJ -- The vast majority of Americans say former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has an excellent or good chance both of being elected president and of defeating Hillary Clinton in the November 2008 general election if Clinton is the Democratic presidential candidate. None of the other leading Republican candidates comes close to Giuliani on either measure. Americans give Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney slightly better chances of “being elected president” than of “defeating Hillary Clinton.” Giuliani also has an advantage in perceived electability over the rest of the Republican field in...

Most Republican presidential candidates can brag about attracting followers with their valiant stances on important issues. Rudy Giuliani's followers support him because they think he can beat Hillary Clinton. In and by itself, the reasoning of Giuliani's supporters is not illogical. Many people do take into account electability when voting for a primary candidate (although most will not sacrifice their basic principles in the name of an election victory). The problem is, this perceived electability is the only thing going for Giuliani. But here is the real kicker: Giuliani is not electable. In fact, he is far less electable than...

Here's my anonymously sourced, second-hand Fred Thompson story that confirms the conventional wisdom. Takes place at a dinner in Washington last winter. Thompson is sitting next to a Hollywood insider who asks him, Why weren't you interested in being president of the MPAA (Motion Picture Association of America)? Look, Thompson says. Dick Wolf (creator of "Law and Order") pays me a lot of money to work two days a week. Why would I work for less money and work six days a week? Okay, says the insider, I get that. Then a few weeks later comes the news that Thompson...

Building on her dual image of leadership and electability, Hillary Clinton has advanced to her most powerful advantage on the Democratic nomination campaign, with resounding leads on key issues and personal attributes, alike. Clinton holds vast margins over her top rivals in trust to handle issues from health care, to the economy, to the war in Iraq. On personal attributes, 50 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say she best represents "the core values of the Democratic Party," again placing her far ahead of her main competitors. These advantages help Clinton overcome her relative vulnerability on two attributes — inspiration...

Conventional wisdom is hardening around the proposition that Fred Dalton Thompson is too lazy, ill-prepared, tired, old, lackluster, inexperienced, inconsistent and bald to make a successful run for President. Of course, conventional wisdom rarely gets anything right. When it does, it's only by accident. In this case conventional wisdom is not just wrong but comically so. Thompson will win the Republican nomination for two reasons. First, he's a very impressive candidate. Second, there's no realistic alternative. He will win the general election for the same two reasons. Let's start by considering the Thompson's Republican competition. John McCain's candidacy may not...

Earlier this week, former Sen. Fred Thompson met privately in Washington, D.C. with senior members of the Arlington Group, a coalition of social and religious conservatives. The meeting, according to Arlington Group members present, included members who had previously met with Thompson at a private meeting in the spring, prior to Thompson's speech before the Council on National Policy. At the meeting this week Thompson answered questions and discussed his views on social issues, as well as his own faith, for more than an hour. "He's impressive, and a number of us want to help him," says a member of...

Like the Olympics, it's a game that's played every four years. The media march out on the field in their ideologically matching blazers and try to convince the GOP to ditch social issues. Their pitch goes something like this: Republican voters are far more moderate than their party's platform. The day of the religious right has come and gone. With pro-life, pro-marriage stands, the party alienates legions of voters who agree with it on taxes, spending and defense. An article in the July 5 Wall Street Journal ("Giuliani Support Hints at Shift") argues, "Mr. Giuliani's lead in the polls -...

Recently, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani officially threw his hat into the ring as a candidate seeking the Presidency of the United States. The night before his official announcement, Giuliani appeared on the FOX Network's "Hannity and Colmes" where the Republican told the program's hosts about his political intentions. A number of recent polls indicate the former federal prosecutor currently leads an ever-growing field of Republicans seeking their Party's nomination. During Sean Hannity's exclusive interview, Giuliani was asked about his liberal social leanings, including his position on abortion, homosexual "marriage," and gun control. Hannity, the popular conservative co-host of...

Not since Teddy Roosevelt took on Tammany Hall a century ago has a New York politician closely linked to urban reform looked like presidential timber. But today ex–New York mayor Rudy Giuliani sits at or near the top of virtually every poll of potential 2008 presidential candidates. Already, Giuliani’s popularity has set off a “stop Rudy” movement among cultural conservatives, who object to his three marriages and his support for abortion rights, gay unions, and curbs on gun ownership. Some social conservatives even dismiss his achievement in reviving New York before 9/11. An August story on the website Right Wing...

Democratic hopefuls lined up against the surge. “We’re not going to baby-sit a civil war,” declared Illinois Sen. Barack Obama on NBC’s “Today” show. Former Sen. John Edwards said it was “wrong for Iraq and wrong for America.” Even New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who has taken heat from Democrats for her support for the war, said she can’t support the surge. The Republican field was more divided. Eager to prove their conservative credentials, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani lined up behind Bush. But Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel...

As a preface, I must declare that I am a Reagan Republican, I am the recipient of a 2004 NRCC Ronald Reagan Republican Gold Medal for my support of the Republican Party during that election year, and that means that when it comes to core values I am probably more big- R Republican than most "republicans" in Washington state. Thus are established my credentials on this issue. (So to all you Democrats out there, don't delude yourselves that I am now a Democrat. I am not on your side, I loathe the Democrats' platform, and you will never find a...

In last week's installment of the Crystal Ball, we explored the myriad of possible Republican White House contenders for 2008, the lack of an obvious successor to President Bush, as well as the wide open nature of the 2008 party primaries. This is only the fifth time since the dawn of the twentieth century that the incumbent President or Vice President has not been running--the earlier examples were 1908, 1920, 1928, and 1952.And now to the Democrats. The most compelling element of the 2008 contest for the Democrats, in the Crystal Ball's view, will be their burning desire to end...

.......... On Monday night, the Republicans were having their party, so I had mine. I gathered friends -- New Yorkers, San Franciscans and one stray Angelino -- for cocktails, snacks and a chance to observe the political system from the relative safety of a Manhattan living room. We put boring speeches on mute, but jacked up the sound when John McCain and Rudy Giuliani took the stage. A typical conversation went like this: Guest A: Ohmygod. Bush screwed McCain so hard in the 2000 primary, why is he kissing Bush's butt? Guest B: Pass the vodka. Guest A: I mean...

John Kerry's nomination happened so quickly and on such uncertain and scant reasoning that Democrats may come down in a few days or weeks with a touch of buyer's remorse. But they should get over it quickly. They probably couldn't do any better if they took more time. Never before had the Democratic presidential nominating contest been so compressed so early. Multiple states held rat-a-tat primaries that allowed no time for retail campaigning and placed a high premium only on one thing - the bounce enjoyed by the big winner from the primaries of the week preceding. Voters had no...

WASHINGTON - John Kerry's campaign calling card, electability, was the winner from coast to coast on Super Tuesday. John Edwards' best efforts notwithstanding, that portended Kerry's elevation from Democratic front-runner to his party's nominee-in-waiting, and a quick pivot to the fall campaign against President Bush. Not that there would be much time for celebration. On Thursday, Bush's re-election campaign dips into a $100 million-plus war chest to begin television commercials in 50 or more cities across more than a dozen battleground states. It's money that Kerry doesn't have - in states where he hasn't yet polled for a general election...

Kerried Away The myth and math of Kerry's electability. By William Saletan Posted Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2004, at 9:41 PM PT By media consensus, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is over. Why? Because John Kerry has won 12 of the 14 primaries and caucuses held so far. And why has Kerry won these contests? Not because voters agree with him on the issues. The reason, according to exit polls, is that voters think he's the candidate most likely to beat President Bush. There's just one problem: The same polls suggest this may not be true. Two weeks ago,...

<p>A new 60-second radio advertisement paid for by Rosario Marín's campaign committee introduces the Republican candidate seeking the nomination to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.</p> <p>MARÍN: This is Rosario Marín, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, and I approved this message.</p>

We Deserve More Than Electability Every year, there is a word or phrase that is repeated over and over until you can’t stand to hear it anymore. In 1999, it was ‘millennium’. In 2000, it was 'chad'. There are scads more: 'yellow cake', 'Shock and awe', the ever popular 'embedded'. And now, in 2004, we have 'electability'. It’s the word on everyone’s lips. When you hear John Kerry and Howard Dean and John Edwards and Wesley Clark on the campaign trail, the one point that they’re attempting to pound into people’s heads is their electability. They never explain what electability...

Not quite false, not quite true They're not myths. Not exactly. But they aren't the full truth either. And I'm getting a little tired of hearing them. Let's start with a perennial complaint: The press is more interested in the horse race than the issues. Maybe it is, but in this election the horse race is an issue. At this point most of the candidates seem to spend less time arguing that they have the right platform than arguing that they can beat Bush. That was, of course, the thrust of most of the attacks on Howard Dean: that his...

The Florida AFL-CIO's endorsement of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride is the latest setback for former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno, whose campaign for governor is plagued by questions about whether she can win in November. Reno didn't receive the union's endorsement because some of its leaders were concerned about Reno's "electability," according to AFL-CIO spokesman Rich Templin. "As a state federation representing over 150 unions here in Florida, the convention delegates felt like they had a responsibility to choose a candidate who not only represented the interests of working families in Florida but who had an actual chance to...