Skip to comments.Rurudyne's Daily Global Cooling Watch
Posted on 02/13/2008 7:53:28 AM PST by Rurudyne
Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
The Canadian Space Agencys radio telescope has been reporting Flux Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.
Like the number of sunspots, the Flux Density Values reflect the Suns magnetic activity, which affects the rate at which the Sun radiates energy and warmth. CSA project director Ken Tapping calls the radio telescope that supplies NASA and the rest of the world with daily values of the Suns magnetic activity a stethoscope on the Sun. In this case, however, it is the doctor whose health is directly affected by the readings.
This is because when the magnetic activity is low, the Sun is dimmer, and puts out less radiant warmth. If the Sun goes into dim mode, as it has in the past, the Earth gets much colder.
Tapping, who was originally from Kent, says that Typically as you go through the ten or eleven year solar activity cycle you see the numbers go up or down. The lowest number is 64 or 68. The numbers 71 or 72 are very low, but they usually start to go up. We are at the end of a cycle, but the numbers still havent gone up. We have been joking around coffee that we may be seeing the Sun about to shut down. (To date Tapping has been far more concerned about global warming.)
Here is the link to the latest flux report: http://www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/current_flux.shtml
(Excerpt) Read more at britsattheirbest.com ...
Flux Density Values in sfu for 22:00 on 2008:02:12As you can see, it still isn't going up.
Julian Day Number : 2454509.406
Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.683
Observed Flux Density : 0072.2
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0070.4
URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0063.4
clickable link/solar activity info.
Any relation to the Yoyodyne industries?
Do you know Dr John Bigbootie?
I’d like to point out the obvious... we’re at the bottom of the current solar cycle, which means yes, indeed solar flux is low, geomagnetic field will be relatively quiet. Technically, we are probably starting on the upslope of the next cycle (24) so we will see an increase in solar activity over the next 5 or so years as sun spots increase, the sun becomes more active, and magnetic fields start to shift again.
I agree with your assessment generally, but the flux density number has noticeably dropped in the last 12 days. This would indicate that sun activity/magnetism has not yet reached the bottom of its current cycle. To think it could get cooler before it starts warming again! Like you, I think the next warming period will be short and mild leading into an even cooler period (but what do I know? I’m not a washed up politician from TN!).
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Feb 2008
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
After a solid week of sunspots January 29 to February 4 the following three days have been blank. February 2 was an active geomagnetic day with a solar wind stream spewing from a coronal hole near sunspot 982. Another solar wind stream from a coronal hole is expected to strike Earth on Sunday, February 10 causing unsettled conditions.
Several readers wrote to ask about the recent sunspot mentioned in last weeks bulletin, hoping it was a Solar Cycle 24 spot. Alas, sunspot 982 had Cycle 23 polarity. Any Cycle 24 spots in the near future will be reported here.
Seems the reduced solar activity of the past few months is continuing. The longer it continues, the more validity the point about global cooling in the near future will have. Cycle 24 is already late by historical standards...........ARRL Amateur Radio News - Jan 18 8:51 AMWeve seen another seven days with no sunspots. After observing the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24, we hope to see more and more of these, signaling the beginning of the next sunspot cycle and the end of Solar Cycle 23.
Ok ... so what am I doing wrong that my links wrapped in url tags don’t work?
Alas, poor John Bigbootie, I knew him well!
But this is the winter of our discount tent.
dunno why that is and I am probably wrong and someone will be along to correct me. I put a paragraph symbol in this post and voila, no clickable link. http://www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/current_flux.shtml
“From what I can tell, any other html in a post kills the clickable link.”
Ok ... THAT’S bizarre.
Thanks anyway! Now I know.
What’s Fred Thompson (or any politician) got to do with science again? LOL!
As for “global warming” in general, sure it DOES exist. Man MADE global warming is wholly different subject, and that is where the LEFT tries to point the finger, without actually pointing the finger. Notice, for instance that when anyone says “global warming” everyone automatically assumes we’re talking about “man made global warming” and everyone (all of us who are Conservatives for instance) jump the poster, caller (on a show) or about anything else, including politicians, because we assume (wrongly in some cases) that we’re all talking about the same thing.
From a purely “astronomy” point of view, “global warming and cooling” exists, because of the sun. Period. Ok, with some minor complications to that, but essentially, our Ice Ages and Warming Periods are ALL dictated by solar, and some internal, volcanic phenomena. (There are some ideas that massive dust clouds either drift past us, or we drift through every so many thousands of years, which scattered heat and light from the sun, thus dropping temps.)
So... in my LEARNED opinion (astrophysics, astronomy, physics) Global warm does indeed exist, as does global cooling effects. However, to say that these things are MAN MADE is a completely made up story, used by anti-Capitalists to try to get a handle on “global Capitalism” and to try to bring us under some kind of socialist scheme of things.
Oh, and for the records, I have NO PROBLEM with recycling things (I don’t do it on a regular basis) and with alternative power sources. In fact, I think we all ought to go “solar” in areas where we have plenty of sunlight. Eventually it will be cheaper, and we can produce our OWN power, without regard to having to pay some company to provide it for us (and believe me in emergency situations, I WANT to be able to produce my own energy - and I DO).
So... all that said... Man made Global Warming is hogwash, and if anything I tend to agree with the originally assessment that we’re going to see cooling of the planet before we see warming spinning us off into some “Venus like atmosphere” even WITH all the CO production by vehicles...
Check that out too, and you can see that this is a 2800 mhz radio flux. If you examine this carefully, you can see we are actually bottoming out even now.
I have doubts that the sun will just “Stop” acting like it has for the past recorded history. Further if you examine sunspot numbers, you will see that the curves and peaks and valleys track year by year in a similar fashion.
We only have radio data from the 1950s or so, but sun spot data goes back a few hundred years now.
Our sun is a variable star that changes it’s radio intensity every 11 years, and IF you were an observer a good distance from the sun, you would see it’s light intensity vary slightly over that time period as well (as sun spots develop and fade). This is probably very difficult to measure (and I sure can’t tell the difference up close haha), but I’m sure that since we can currently measure the variability of stars’ light over time we could measure the sun at a distance.
My point is that “variable stars” - which we now tend to believe includes near every star out there (for reasons too complex to go into at this point) change constantly, some on a short time scale, others on a very long time scale.
The fact is, we simply don’t know EVERYTHING there is to know about stars, and the sun being the closest to us has not give up all it’s secrets. I am not sure I want to see some of them up close and personal either!
He is closely related to John Smallberries
To this I would add that all historical evidence is that warm is good.
By this I mean that in historical times past when we can infer that when it has been generally warm (sometimes warmer than now) that human civilization has flourished; also, when times have been cooler, never mind outright ice ages, things have been generally bad for civilization.
Since agrarian people are tied closely to the fortunes of nature in general, it really isn’t a stretch to say that warm has also been good for nature too just as cold has been universally bad.
Possibly the most fraudulent aspect of “global warming” isn’t really the man-made panic over man-sourced pollution, but the total dishonestly of the truth of if it is bad to be warmer at all
To listen to the AGW crowd you would have to imagine that Rome’s rise on the back of her stable agriculture (that fed the legions) and her decline as her native agriculture became unreliable had nothing to do with the weather.
Likewise to see the rise of both a prosperous Europe and of the Mississippian peoples (as examples) during the “little optimum” and their subsequent woes (or collapse) during that little cold snap we came out of only 150-160 years ago had nothing to do with the weather.
Yes, I’ll say it loud and strong: global warming is good. Or, put another way, what did those poor polar bears do to survive during the little optimum when there weren’t any Democrats to worry about them?
But as for the sun’s performance, you are right to say we don’t know what it will do despite our reasonable expectations about what it might do based on what we’ve observed in the past.
Absolutely correct. Before there was “technology” and our current (and recently passed) ages of Information and Industry basically permitted people to remain PUT, mass exoduses of people around the world from region to region occurred.
There have been several studies of where people lived, and how they migrated across Europe. One of those studies showed that most people are descended from a few people in a recent past (several thousand years ago now) and that there was some kind of disaster that killed most people on the planet. (I would guess it was an asteroid or something).
Still, those people survived because they moved to warmer climates apparently.
It’s thought that modern man lived through and became what we are today, while the Neanderthal race of humans died because they were more adept at living in COLDER climates, while modern man moved to and took over warmer climates. As the Ice Age climates fell back so did Neanderthal - whom eventually failed.
At least that’s the theory. There’s starting to be a bit of evidence to show this was probably the case.
Even so, warm IS good, and it allows us to grow more, feed more, create more population... and to me, this is a good sign we should be pushing for the Stars sooner, than later. While we have the technology and abilities, and while we can advance our human race on the planet, we should be pushing to move beyond this planet eventually.
PERHAPS we won’t go the way of the dinosaur and 99% of everything that’s already lived on this planet, huh?
Gosh, how did I know that FReepers would know what I was referring to?
We’re an eclectic bunch...
I always liked that film, and it was recently released on DVD.
Just for fun, look at the new Johnny Depp film “Sweeny Todd” and the makeup job he wears. Look just a little like Dr. Emilio Lizardo?
Under normal circumstances that would be a very uncontroversial observation. However, given the current hysteria over global warming, we might discover that the political benefits of global cooling outweigh the economic costs.
In other words, a continuing belief in catastrophic anthropogenic global warming will have enormous worldwide long-term economic costs as CO2 emissions are regulated, and equally enormous political costs as our various freedoms (including freedom of speech in opposition to global warming orthodoxy) are suppressed.
Whereas a significant and irrefutable reduction in current global temperatures, along with credible predictions of future temperature declines as the sun's output diminishes and we enter a Maunder Minimum, will discredit the global warming alarmists. It will take awhile, and they won't go down easily, but it will become harder and harder for them to maintain that anthropogenic global warming is going to destroy the earth when the earth keeps getting cooler.
If this derails the agenda of Gore acolytes, it may well compensate for the economic disadvantages of cooling. After all, we have the technology to keep ourselves warm. I like living in sunny southern California, but I was born and raised in Wisconsin and I can survive in a colder climate. Improved nuclear power and other advanced energy sources will be developed long before the slow pace of cooling can have a drastic impact on our lives.
What’s the TAX we need to pay to stop this???
Flux Density Values in sfu for 20:00 on 2008:02:13We may not have bottomed out JUST yet.
Julian Day Number : 2454510.322
Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.717
Observed Flux Density : 0070.5
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.7
URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.8
This story is a significant exageration.
Solar flux is low, of course, like it always is at the bottom of the solar cycle but the current figures are not that unusual.
This cycle is a long one. There is definitely some correlation with declining global temperatures and longer solar cycles so that makes it important. But it isn’t significantly longer than the average yet.
Before articles like this appear, the lack of a new cycle starting would have to be played out for another 6 months or more.
If that does happen, however, then we should start worrying because there will likely be crop failures and colder temperatures like the last drops in solar activity in the early 1800s and Maunder Minimum in the 17th century.
But solar cycle 24 will probably start in a few more months.
If so, wasn’t the original predictions for cycle 24 supposed to have it starting (going through this minimum period) around the middle of April LAST year?
How long do we have before we start seeing a reduction in temperatures?
I think we are seeing them now, but we have people like Hansen cooking the books.
I agree, but never underestimate the ability of the AGW alarmist to lie. Remember there are trillions in $$ and a religion at stake.
Just look at 2007, the oceans cooled (That's 75% of the "global" in global warming right there), Antarctica froze to record levels, and whole southern hemisphere suffered through one of it's worst winters in a century and it seemed every week there was a post here on freereublic of record cold or snow somewhere.
Yet despite that, they claim 2007 was the 5th warmest year recorded, or even worse that fraud James Hansen at the GISS claimed 2007 was the 2nd warmest year (though to give credit where credit is due, even most alarmist don't take him serious anymore)
The simple fact is even if it does get colder, they can just lie. Even during the Little Ice Age there were still heat waves, hurricanes and droughts, so all they have to do is to continue highlight the warm/extreme events while dismissing/ignoring the cold ones and the sheepe will still buy it. Especially if Hillary or Obama get in there, then expect record temps every year no matter what is really happening.
A cooling event like between 1945-1976 or even the cool temps of the late 1800's - early 20th century won't do, it's probably have to take a Maunder Minimum type climate to discredit AGW in most people's brainwashed eyes.
JustDoItAlways ... I understand and you are right, it isn’t yet time to invest in a portfolio entirely of canned beans and shotgun shells. Not by a long shot.
But rummaging around in Kozak’s link produced some interesting comments by those posters (aside from calling any possible minimum the “Gore Minimum” ... which would be choice).
“For instance, the first spotless day after solar maximum occurred in January 2004. Since that day, 46 months have elapsed and there is still no minimum at hand. This is an unusually long period (from first spotless day to minimum) compared to the last eight cycles, SC16-23. The average period for those cycles was 33 months with a standard deviation of +/- 5 months.” Harold Vance 10/27/07
John A had written earlier: “DR if that was supposed to be the start of the new cycle all the way back in 2006, then someone turned the machine back off.”
So it would seem that it isn’t just that cycle 24 is slow starting but that we’ve been extra slow getting here.
If indeed the observed normal maximum duration has been 38 months before now (33 +/- 5), it’s the length of the extra time that is “unusual” (now at 49 and sputtering according to our own Robert Cook). And since this is sunspot activity they are talking about here we have a few more than 50 years worth of data we are dealing with ... about just enough so any conclusions we might draw are NOT ENTIRELY SPURIOUS. .^
Still, it could be bad if the cycles are getting longer.
I got the rope, we have already seen some unexpected weather (seriously, snow in Bagdad of all places?) and it only has to continue into late spring to seriously hurt some population groups (especially those poor saps around the world living without the benefits of liberty ... they always seem to be living closer to the edge).
And dpweiner, we must not forget that it was the little ice age that helped to inspire all this socialist lunacy in the first place. While we might hope for some sanity in relief of AGW politics in the short term, if things do get bad I can hardly imagine anything worse than a new minimum in a world already ravaged by socialism, communism and relativism.
It reminds this Christian be a bit too much of a story where world government gains power amidst terrible famine.
ctually since 1998.
I knew you were talking about Gore. I was being funny too! :)
Ah, you’re RIGHT, I DO remember reading that it was Toba. Just forgot I guess. Actually, I was thinking it had something to do with an asteroid because of something I was watching on TV the other night, but the two incidents were millions of years apart and I must have muddled them up in my head somewhere.
(The thing I was watching a couple nights ago was talking about an extinction of 99% of the currently living species at the time and brought about the RISE of the dinosaurs, rather than the fall).
Discovery Channel has a big special coming up, I think this weekend, called 6 Degrees changing the world. Or something like that. IT IS pure propaganda. From what I see on their advertisements, 2 degrees melts the ice caps, 4 degrees turns the Amazon into sand dunes, and 6 degrees puts NY City under 200 feet of water.
February 14th update
Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:14
Julian Day Number : 2454511.239
Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.751
Observed Flux Density : 0070.1
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.3
URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.5
An archive of all readings can be found on their FTP site. They do three readings per day.
I possibly spoke too soon.
The link doesn’t seem to the working.
Try this link, then click on the “Tabulated Flux Values from December 2006 to Present.” That should link you to the archived data.
A related thread:
PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY, February 14 (Itar-Tass) - The village of Oktyabrsky with a population of 3,000 in the western coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula was stranded from the outside world by a heavy blizzard. The traffic to the village was closed for all types of transport, Itar-Tass learnt from a man on duty at the Kamchatavtodor Company.
There is zero visibility on the highway, linking the village with the district centre of Ust-Bolsheretsk and the rest of the Kamchatka Territory, the source said. Wind gusts reach 30-35 metres per second. Similar weather conditions were registered in the Sea of Okhotsk, bordering Kamchatka, as well as in the southern tip of the peninsula.
The situation may deteriorate there over the next few hours, warned the Kamchatka weather centre. Wind gusts may reach a gale force of 40-45 metres per second. All appropriate services received warnings of stormy weather.
The south of Kamchatka is battered by a cyclone which approached from the Pacific. Gradual weather improvement is expected in the morning of February 15.
“In the short term the North Koreans may rush south for food.”
How is starvation any change for NK? The NK army would never let them leave ... though they might start a BBQ if things get bad enough.
BTW ... I said it before and I’ll say it again, it was the little ice age that helped to spawn all this socialist crappola so I’m pessimistic that it will get any better if things get cold again. I would predict calls for enhanced UN power to deal with uprooted people all paid for with direct taxes in the vein of the Law of the Sea fiasco.
Any reference to Kamchatka brings back memories of sending massive armies from Alaska in preparation of sweeping down on into China, usually in a pincer move from the Middle East.
Playing Risk with old friends. Good times! ^.^
PS: I hope those poor people get some relief soon.