Posted on 02/14/2008 8:33:47 PM PST by Matchett-PI
In the Democratic Party there are 796 "Super Delegates." These are men and women who are delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver by virtue of their position, not because they were elected in primary or chosen in a party caucus.
Officially, within the Democratic National Committee rules they are known as "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" (PLEOs) but Super Delegates stuck. PLEOs did not.
Mullpal Lanny Davis has reminded us that Super Delegates were never intended to be pledged to one candidate, but were the insiders who could undo a bad decision by those pesky voters in primaries and caucuses.
Yesterday, Mr. Davis (with whom I have appeared as a sparring partner many times over the past decade) pointed out that in an earlier age Democratic Party insiders chose as the Party's nominee Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Adlai Stevenson, and John F. Kennedy.
As we pointed out here on Wednesday, Barack Obama - following Tuesday's "Potomac Primary" has assumed the lead in the actual delegate count.
The way the delegates are awarded in these Democratic primarie, unless one candidate gets 80% of the votes the awards tend to be 54% to 46% one way or the other.
Thus, according to CNN's count, Barak Obama has 1,096 elected delegates (of the 2,025 needed) while Hillary Clinton has 977 - 119 fewer and that ration isn't likely to change much.
While Super Delegates have no requirement to support any candidate prior to the opening of the Convention, CNN reports Obama has the pledged support of 157 and Clinton has 234 closing the gap between them to only 42 delegates.
As there are 796 Super Delegates and only 391 have pledge to support one of the candidates, that leaves 405 Super Delegates sitting around waiting for offers.
So long as Hillary Clinton stays inside of 405 delegates, the Supers can turn the tide.
But, they won't just swoop onto the floor and wrest the nomination away from Obama because that would cause a riot in Denver. Here's what they will do: You may remember that Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates because they ignored the DNC dictum that thou shalt not have a primary election earlier than February 5.
They did and Hillary won both.
The Clintons will arrange for their Super Delegates to reach down to the elected delegates who are members of the Rules and/or Credentials Committees over whom they have some control (If you are a sitting Democratic US Senator or Governor and you call an elected delegate from your state, that elected delegate will take your call).
The Super Delegates will instruct the elected delegates on those committees to seat delegations from Florida and Michigan proportionate to the votes Obama and Clinton received.
I guarantee you that the proportions will be just enough to give the nomination to Hillary.
And 1. The Clintons will be able to claim they had nothing to do with it.
2. The Supers will be able to claim they were just doing their jobs by not disenfranchising voters in two crucial states.
3. Just as you read, it is so complex that no one will be able to explain it in the required 12 seconds on television.
Sending Lanny Davis out yesterday to begin the process of inoculating Democrats against Super Delegate skullduggery is only the first step. Between now and August there will be a constant drumbeat that Michigan and Florida cannot be shut out and the Clintonistas will be working the phones to be certain everyone knows their role.
Or else.
On the GOP side, Mitt Romney's endorsement of John McCain (and the release of his delegates who are not bound under state law) will push McCain toward the 1,000 delegate number. On the Republican side 1,191 is the magic number to reach a majority.
Mike Huckabee, by refusing to leave the race, thus goes from running a quixotic and marginally heroic campaign against McCain, to being a laughing-stock or worse, a disloyal Republican.
It certainly makes the confounding and, often contradictory, bits fall together.
If hillary steals the nomination, she will not come out clean regardless of how fast the clinton thieves try to spin it.
Obama supporters will revolt. I predict the whole sleazy business of how rats steal elections will be exposed to the world by obama supporters.
The rat party is going down hard this summer and it won’t get back up.
...”Blacks might be angry, but there arent many in Denver, and there wont be huge busloads coming in”...
Besides, Barack Hussein Obama is not “black” in the sense understood in America. He is a mulatto, just as white as black. The majority of true American “blacks” have little to nothing in common with this arrogant empty suit.
That's only because whites here in Pennsylvania are racist & won't vote for a black candidate... our governor says so! (Still a little stunned by that last pearl from Rendell)
Thanks for the link! bttt
Lanny can babble all that he wants but the Barak-backers (Oprah & the girls on The View) will kill them. Who do you think the voters will listen to in that Party?
I like your scenerio. I’ve been thinking of ways to help make that happen ever since Mitt dropped out.
Thanks for the link.
They don’t call him “Fast Eddie” Rendell for nothing.
I have said before and still think HRC will get the nomiantion. Then, to bind the racial wound, BHO will be offered the VP spot. He’ll take the deal because he’s young and wants to be President. He’ll have a protfolio. He may even break a tie in the Senate. After four years, or eight, it won’t be said that he lacks experience.
That ticket, HRC-BHO, will be the most difficult for the GOP to beat.
A local talk radio host here in Harrisburg was saying that Rendell was speaking the truth about Pennsylvania voters not wanting to vote for a black candidate. He was speculating as to the reasons why Rendell would say it. I’m screaming at my radio that Rendell is one of Hillary’s noted fundraisers! Idiot.
It just goes to show that Rendell doesn’t give a d@mn about Pennsylvania. He’ll throw his state under the “Bad-PR Bus” if he thinks it will help his Party or his favorite candidate.
It is Hillary's election to steal, but I doubt that will happen.
That’s the way it is in the corrupt NE states (and any state) that have been controlled by The Mob for decades.
The ‘RAT Party _IS_ a Criminal Enterprise. The ‘RAT Party, itself, is THE political party for racists and criminals.
The ‘RAT Party is the party in which they have a voice. If they had a voice in the Republican Party, they would all be Republicans.
Go to any Mob-run town or city - never would a registered Republican (unless it was a RINO willing to “play ball” with the criminals) get elected in any of them.
That there are any people who think of themselves as “decent”, yet at the same time vote for DemocRAT candidates, says more about who they _really_ are than anything else.
I really think that the Dem nomination is going to turn into a blood bath. This can do nothing but help McCain like it helped Nixon in ‘68.
While they are going all the way to August to determine the nominee, McCain can be running for President. Plus, whichever side loses will have a large number of voters stay home.
More Obama voters will sit out the election if he is “screwed” by the Super Delegates than Hillary supporters would stay home.
PRAY THAT THE CLINTONS WILL PULL OFF THEIR LITTLE CAPER AND DIVIDE THE DEMS INTO DEFEAT. THIS COULD ALSO HELP THE GOP TAKE BACK CONTROL OF BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS. (Not that they’ve proven to be much better.)
Hillary will get the nomination and will be willing to do whatever it takes to get it. She will not care what sort of damage she does to her party or to the country.
She is a Stalinist, first. She, unlike her husband, could care less if anyone likes her...(including her husband) - she despises “little people” and only looks at other politicians as pawns to be used to further her agenda or be crushed if they refuse.
That only about 1/2 the country knows that about her is scary.
Johnson didn’t go from Senator to Prez...he was VP THEN Pres after JFK was gotten rid of.
It is not her choice. You ascribe too much power to the Clintons. The Dem party is not going to commit political suicide to placate them.
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