“We underestimate Obama at our own peril.”
Absolutely true. There are a lot of factors this year that work for Obama. The biggest one will be the economy. Houses aren’t selling (and in my neck of the woods there have been more foreclosures than sales since the beginning of the year) and people can’t use their equity as an ATM, gas is approaching $4.00 a gallon, groceries are skyrocketing. When Americans can’t buy stuff they get anxious and upset. Couple all that with an unpopular war and the fact that the Republican party has held the Presidency for eight years, and the incumbent President is not all that popular.
All that points to a Democrat win, unless the Pubbies pull a rabbit out of their hat, and I don’t think McCain can do it. He’s old, not all that likeable, not a good orator, he’s admitted to not knowing much about the economy, which is looking to be THE ISSUE this November, and his campaign seems to be flailing around with misstatements, retractions, apologies, etc.
When people don’t like what they have, they will vote for “change,” however nebulous or undefined. Freepers here laugh at it, but I’m sure the “hope for change, and change your hope” message has been thoroughly researched and focus-grouped as the message the electorate wants to hear this year. All the candidates, including McCain, have used the hope and change mantra this primary season to one degree or another.
The general looks to me like a replay of the nomination, with McCain playing the part of Hillary. He will start out pretty strong, but the more people see of him, the less they’re going to like him. Conservatives vote on principles, but moderates and independents vote on emotion, and barring something unforeseen, Obama will have that vote sewn up.
I woke up after a refreshing nights sleep, trundled over to my computer, hit refresh on my FR window, and the first thing I read was your post.
You present a depressing case.
Obama is a very cool customer and I do think he’ll end up President for the reasons you mentioned. Also, he has taken apart the juggernaut of Hillary and that’s something that is quite surprising and how he has handled her is no small matter.
I think the $4 + per gallon of gas is going to cause an explosion. The American taxpayer can only take so much. How are we going to afford the war when we can’t afford to drive to work?
It’s highly difficult to see how McCain is going to convince the country that he’s the one to lead us through this.
In our first Electoral College look since John McCain basically secured the Republican nomination, we see that the Democrats lead the GOP 355-183, securing 85 more votes than are needed to win the presidency. The following “red” states from 2004 have turned “blue”: Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. …
gopnation @ February 26, 2008