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You go ahead and trade on that assumption, m'friend -- a production cut is already priced into the mkt. When they don't announce a cut on 5 March, I hope you're very nimble, because WTI crude rates to take a $2-5/bbl hit, depending on how they phrase their communique.

The prudent trader will do something like the following: assume WTI crude is, say $102 at the close of the day session on 4 March. Enter two orders, A) ''Sell 5 WTI April crude, $101.25 STOP'', and B) ''Buy 5 WTI April crude, $100.85 OB''.

If OPEC announce a cut, WTI runs higher and neither order is hit. If they don't (which, btw, they won't...NOBODY cuts production above $100/bbl; take that to the bank), the price increment that's now built-into the mkt due to the putative cut will leave the mkt immediately, or within a couple of hours at worst, and the orders will be hit, and the trader will be out in and out of the mkt in likely a very few minutes with a nice little 2K profit in hand.

Note that the only way that a trade such as described can lose is if A) OPEC announces ''no cut'' **AND** B) WTI April crude drops to a minimum of between $101.24 and $100.86. It can happen -- but, in this enviroment, once WTI moves $0.75-1.00 in a day, it has invariably for months moved at least $0.75 **more** in the same direction later the same day.

Feel free to check out these recent, remarkably consistent price movements in WTI crude at Time & Timing

Completely free, very short sign-up (4 items, all just for admin purposes), and VERY informative if you're interested in recent or historical price analysis of the futures mkts.

Good trading to you!