Posted on 03/10/2008 4:09:26 PM PDT by MitchellC
The spectacle of the presidential race coming to North Carolina brings more than bright lights, banners and Secret Service agents.
Independent voters will more likely vote in the Democratic primary, which is bad for Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican.
More women and blacks likely will turn out, which is bad for State Treasurer Richard Moore, a Democrat.
Presidential campaign ads will hit the airwaves, which is bad for candidates for lower-tier offices, such as lieutenant governor or labor commissioner.
The price of television commercials is expected to go up, and that's bad for all candidates.
The invasion of the presidential campaign into North Carolina's May 6 primary has scrambled statewide campaigns. The hoopla surrounding Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will dramatically alter who votes, how much attention voters pay to state races, how campaigns reach voters and how much it costs to try.
North Carolina offers the second-biggest purse of delegates among the nine states that haven't voted. That makes the state a coveted prize for both Clinton and Obama.
Candidates fear their messages will be lost as the presidential campaigns pile on another layer of advertising.
"From the governor's race and on down the ballot, candidates are going to be limited in the impressions they can leave on voters at a time when we're going to have people going to the polls in historic numbers," said Paul Shumaker, a Republican consultant to four statewide candidates.
Voter turnout will be bigger than ever before, said Jack Hawke, McCrory's strategist.
"Polling data is no longer going to be valid," Hawke said. "Who are the primary voters going to be? We don't know anymore."
McCrory has banked on unaffiliated voters in his mayoral races. They can vote in either primary. This round, many could get siphoned off by the excitement of the Democratic race for president.
"Will that somewhat hold down the kind of support Pat will get from unaffiliated voters in the primary?" Hawke mused.
Clinton and Obama likely will boost turnout among women and blacks, who early polls show favoring Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue, Moore's opponent on the Democratic side of the governor's race.
"We're headed into unknown territory," said Jay Reiff, Moore's campaign manager.
Mac McCorkle, a Perdue consultant, said there's little campaigns can do to control the sudden influx from the presidential race, whether the effect on them is good or bad.
"It's not something that can be easily adjusted," McCorkle said. "When the tornado is coming, it's coming."
Television and radio stations, however, can adjust -- their prices, that is.
Shumaker learned Thursday that Time Warner Cable wants to reset its advertising rates -- raise them, he figures -- each week between now and the May 6 primary.
"If this were a hurricane, we'd call it price gouging," Shumaker said. "The question is whether the public gets upset when it happens to politicians."
Time Warner sales manager Lisa Clark, in Charlotte, did not return voicemail messages Friday. Mark Prak, a Raleigh-based communications lawyer, said Time Warner is managing a limited inventory of time when there's a sharp increase in demand for it.
Not only will the increased demand push up prices, but Congress passed legislation in 1972 that guarantees "reasonable access" for themselves and the presidential candidates. State candidates don't get that guarantee.
"The federal candidates get to go to the front of the line," Prak said. He cautioned, though, that campaigns get a price cut that other advertisers don't, and broadcasters try to accommodate all campaigns.
Ann Marie Young, sales director for WCNC-TV in Charlotte, held a similar post in Michigan, routinely a pivotal state in presidential primaries.
"Yes, there are a finite number of spots," she said, "but if managed properly everybody gets reasonable access."
For candidates who have little or no money for television ads, the potential flood of presidential ads may help level the playing field.
"My better funded primary opponents' message now becomes diluted in the electronic media," said former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, a Republican candidate for governor.
The mass media muddle also increases the value of endorsements, said James Andrews, president of the N.C. State AFL-CIO, which issued endorsements Friday. They have 120,000 members and retirees who get a list of preferred candidates to carry into the voting booth.
Campaigns have to find different approaches to reach their target voters, said Marc Rotterman, strategist for Republican N.C. Sen. Fred Smith's campaign for governor.
"It forces both sides to think more creatively," he said.
North Carolina hasn't seen a competitive presidential primary in at least 20 years. Candidates and their hired guns now find their world transformed. The statistical models they used to poll are worthless. Their direct mailing strategies are obsolete.
"The only thing that seems predictable this election cycle is the consistency in which pundits and experts have been proven wrong," Reiff said.
"It's time to buckle up and get ready for a wild ride."
NC ping
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