I am afraid Zapatero government is pretty secure. No matter what he did in the last term, a lot of people kept voting him -although not the majority- in regular areas of Spain, he was the most voted in the nationalist Basque region and Catalonia, and in the heavily subsidized region of Andalucia, granting him a slim but enough victory.
Moreover, a
new operation inside the Strategy of Tension was carried out, killing a Socialist former councilman in order to make the leftists that otherwise would have not vote -those that were unhappy with Zapatero but never would have chosen a right wing candidate- felt attacked. Again, on reflection day, during the funeral, the daughter of the assassinated councilman asked publicly to "go to vote", which sounds pretty neutral but had clearly a concrete audience. Just the same manipulation through violence again.
Therefore, the Strategy is on and now rather than Zapatero, who is a puppet in most issues, but the puppetteers above him, may feel secure to increase the weak evidence against Zougham, and produce another attack with some/many characteristics similar to 3/11 in order to reinforce in the public opinion the Official Version.
Because, compared to other Black Operations, the worst of 3/11 for the conspirers was not that many people did not swallow the story about Al Qaeda, which was already planned, but that they did not swallow the story about ETA either, failing one of the primary objectives that was to shed confussion on who was behind it, which is no longer a mistery.
Unfortunately, we don't know a lot of details of how, but we know who and we know why, and that is a problem for them.
Therefore, one of the answer could be to shed more confussion in a new major incident, linked in some way -there are already reports like Gómez-Menor's- with 3/11. The Spanish media, controlled by the allies of Zapatero, would come along, selling any version no matter the details do not fit, although full control of the Spanish security forces could lead toward a far better constructed plot.
Moreover, tension could be the answer now that the economy is nearing recession and many of the five million immigrants the oligarchs -who are the ones that really pull the strings- let enter in Spain to keep salaries at the 1998 level, do not have anything to do.
Nevertheless, the operation may not occur in Spain. In Algeria, for instance, it has been working a similar scheme, although the goverment there has not been toppled yet.
I am afraid manufactured incidents are the rule around here.