Posted on 05/07/2008 8:01:48 AM PDT by Aristotelian
But Barack Obama's support has narrowed dangerously--and he'll need to make critical changes to beat John McCain.
The Democratic primary is over. Hillary Clinton might still run in West Virginia and Kentucky, which she'll win handily, but by failing to win Indiana decisively and by losing North Carolina decisively, she lost the argument for her own candidacy. She can't surpass Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote count. The question is no longer who will be the Democratic nominee, but whether Obama can defeat Republican John McCain in November. And the answer to that is still unclear.
During the last two months, Obama has faltered as a candidate. He has seen his political base narrow rather than widen, and some of his strengths turn into weaknesses. Of course, he has had to deal with the scandal surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright, but even so, he needs to remedy certain flaws in his political approach if he wants to defeat McCain in the fall. Here is a brief list:
The Base: As the primaries have proceeded, he has become more dependent on strong, almost unanimous, support from African American and young voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at tnr.com ...
Her net delegate loss was 11, which she will likely make up in Puerto Rico.
I can’t even begin to imagine why Hillary thought she would do well in NC???? The Clintons were not very kind to us back in the day! Besides, so far we are a Republican state in the national elections.
I was hoping Hillary would be in it a little longer so we could keep beating up on Obama, but oh well. One down, one to go! I can’t imagine an Obama presidency, but then other dems I talk to feel exactly the same way.
I have assumed all this time that while Obama is carrying 90%+ of the black vote, it won't much matter come November. The thinking is that blacks go overwhelmingly Dem anyway.
Have there been any studies on this matter to determine whether he may actually carry blacks to an even larger degree than the Dem ticket usually does? That is, either a higher percentage of blacks going Dem (which can't be much higher), or a total number of blacks participating and thereby increasing their significance.
I hope my initial assumptions were correct. If so then I think he is TOAST. If not, then who knows whether 60% of whites going GOP will be enough.
On the other hand, it may be that whites are more likely to participate with a black liberation candidate on the ticket. Any thoughts?
If Sen. Osama suddenly disappears, does Mrs. Clinton become our next President by default???
So, how is Obama-Jama going to convince us that he for a strong defense and WOT; is against abortion of any type; believes in tax cuts and wants to make them permanent; and is willing to admit that government should get smaller - not bigger.
I’d like to see him try that one on for size.
..I bet she is thinking haaarrrrd about it even as we speak.
There is still plenty of time for her to discredit him to the point that enough delegates will jump ship and give here the nomination.
Well, I’ll say one thing, it looks as if Rush has been proved right. Obama got muddied and spent a lot more money than he would have without Operation Chaos, yet in the end the weaker candidate won.
Although I still wouldn’t count hillary out until the fat lady sings.
I think the Wright issue has opened the eyes of a lot of whites to the fact that all the programs, reparations, and appeasement have been for naught.
They still hold their grievances, they still hate whitey, including lib whitey, and they’re still angry at you because of your skin color that gives you “privilege”.
In philly - as in any other crime infested, slum ridden democrat hellhole - there are wards and precincts reporting 108% of the vote all democrat.
Happened for Kerry, and with no apologies at all.
As far as a higher total? - Can't see it.
When will these people just go away?
For crying out loud, just do the Tom Daschle thing, AND GO AWAY.
I’m sick and tired of thoee two. Yeah, and Hillary and Bill too.
Just go away! Already. For crying out loud.
not at all.
Obama won because of the racial makeup of the Demcrat Party in NC.
Hillary won because of the racial makeup of the Democrat Party in IND.
Seems to me that Tuesday was a clear statement that Obama is beholding to the black liberation theology movement far more than anything else.
Such an intelligent question deserves a good answer - I’ll try my best.
My understanding is that yes, blacks voted close to 90% Democrat in 2000 and 2004, so there may not be much more of the black vote to go to Obama. But he might increase turnout, which is less predictable. So I would say that Obama has a poteltial reserve of “new” voters, of undetermined size.
By electing Jimmy Carter The Second.
potelial = potential
She has been taking voice lessons according to her FEC filing.
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