Obama may declare victory on May 20

Herald Sun ^ | 9 May 2008

[Aussie Dasher]

DEMOCRATIC White House hopeful Barack Obama said today he could declare victory over Hillary Clinton on May 20, when Kentucky and Oregon may put him over the top in terms of elected delegates.

"If at that point we have the majority of pledged delegates, which is possible, then I think we can make a pretty strong claim that we have got the most runs and it's the ninth inning and we have won," he told NBC television, referring to the final inning of a baseball game.

"But, you know, I think it is also important for us to, if we win, do so in a way that brings the party together," said the Illinois senator, who has refused to join calls for Senator Clinton to quit the acrimonious race.

"One of the obvious big concerns that all of us have is making sure that we focus our attention on the Republicans in the fall, and we're in a strong position to do that," Senator Obama said.

According to his campaign, Senator Obama needs just 33 more pledged delegates to reach a majority of the Democratic nominating officials, 1606.

[Aussie Dasher]

This bloke does realise he's up against the CLINTONS????

[pnh102]

"If at that point we have the majority of pledged delegates, which is possible, then I think we can make a pretty strong claim that we have got the most runs and it's the ninth inning and we have won,"

Does Obama know nothing about how the game of baseball is played? Being in the 9th inning with a lead is no guarantee of a victory.

[rdl6989]

Never count out the Clintoons, even when mathematically eliminated they are a threat, and maybe that is when they are at their worst.

[scrabblehack]

He’s asking for umpire Howard Dean (and the MSM) to call a rainout in the 8th...he may get it...

[yldstrk]

He can declare all he wants....wishing don’t make it so.

[The_Macallan]

We all hear how "close" the Democratic Primaries are and how much Obama is so dominant in the hearts and minds of the average everyday Democratic voter.

Well if we looked at the Obama v. Clinton match-up in terms of the electoral college - we'd see a very different outlook.

Presidential elections are won or lost based on Electoral College votes, not based on "delegates", "superdelegates", party caucuses or total popular vote.

States that hold Primary Elections allow the VOTERS to choose their candidate, as opposed to states that hold caucuses in which voters don't go to the polls but rather Party-insiders do the voting.

And so to get a clearer picture of the Democratic outlook - I looked through the lens of Primary Election results only and then counted those results in terms of Electoral Votes for each of those states to see whether Obama or Clinton would have an easier time gaining the 270 necessary Electoral Votes to become President.

And so by tallying up the States won in the Primary Elections (where voters decide the result, not party-insiders) by Obama and Clinton based on their Electoral College votes - here are the results:

STATE - Electoral Votes (Primary Election Winner)
Alabama - 9 (Obama )
Connecticut - 7 (Obama )
Delaware - 3 (Obama )
District Of Columbia - 3 (Obama )
Georgia - 15 (Obama )
Illinois - 21 (Obama )
Louisiana - 9 (Obama )
Maryland - 10 (Obama )
Mississippi - 6 (Obama )
Missouri - 11 (Obama )
North Carolina - 15 (Obama )
South Carolina - 8 (Obama )
Utah - 5 (Obama )
Vermont - 3 (Obama )
Virginia - 13 (Obama )
Wisconsin - 10 (Obama )
148 Primary Electoral Votes For Obama.

Arizona - 10 (Clinton )
Arkansas - 6 (Clinton )
California - 55 (Clinton )
Florida - 27 (Clinton )
Indiana - 11 (Clinton )
Massachusetts - 12 (Clinton )
Michigan - 17 (Clinton )
New Hampshire - 4 (Clinton )
New Jersey - 15 (Clinton )
New Mexico - 5 (Clinton )
New York - 31 (Clinton )
Ohio - 20 (Clinton )
Oklahoma - 7 (Clinton )
Pennsylvania - 21 (Clinton )
Rhode Island - 4 (Clinton )
Tennessee - 11 (Clinton )
Texas - 34 (Clinton )
290 Primary Electoral votes For Clinton.

Woah! Looks like Clinton has a HUGE lead when it comes to where it counts state-by-state - 1) Actual voters and 2) Electoral Count.

Oh - well - what about the Caucus states. Shirley all the states won by Obama would make a big difference wouldn't it?

Okay - let's add in the Caucus states and add up those Electoral College Votes too. However - an odd thing happened in Texas, they had a Primary AND a Caucus - and the results were split between Obama and Clinton, Clinton won the Primary and Obama won the Caucus. So to be fair, I'll give EACH of them the full amount of Texas Electoral Votes:

STATE - Electoral Votes (Caucus Election Winner)
Alaska - 3 (Obama )
Colorado - 9 (Obama )
Hawaii - 4 (Obama )
Idaho - 4 (Obama )
Iowa - 7 (Obama )
Kansas - 6 (Obama )
Maine - 4 (Obama )
Minnesota - 10 (Obama )
Nebraska - 5 (Obama )
North Dakota - 3 (Obama )
Texas - 34 (Obama )
Washington - 11 (Obama )
Wyoming - 3 (Obama )
103 Caucus Electoral Votes For Obama.

Nevada - 5 (Clinton)
5 Caucus Electoral Votes For Clinton.

And so what's the grand total - in terms of Electoral Votes for each?

Clinton: 295 Total Electoral Votes
Obama: 251 Total Electoral Votes
* remember, Texas is counted in for each candidate because they each won there.

Personally - I actually happen to think the State Primary Election results are FAR more telling than the party-insider polls done for State Caucus elections.

ETA: And if you look just at "swing" states who had Primary Elections, those states that are going to be the main battlegrounds and ususally determine the outcome of the elections:

Ohio - 20 (Clinton )
Pennsylvania - 21 (Clinton )
Florida - 27 (Clinton )
New Hampshire - 4 (Clinton )
Wisconsin - 10 (Obama )


Bottomline: Don't quit Hill! You can still win this!! LOL!

[randita]

I was thinking today he ought to start acting like this is over - like he’s the nominee. He’s been trying to be conciliatory and humble, but enough is enough. He ought to announce his VP and start proposing his presidential cabinet/advisers.

It made a huge difference in public perception when Bush did just this during Florida 2000.

[unkus]

The Clintons are like a dead rattle snake. You had better bury the head after you kill it.

[zeebee]

Clinton: 295 Total Electoral Votes
Obama: 251 Total Electoral Votes

Winning the majority of the democrats in a state has nothing to do with winning the majority of the popular votes. Flawed logic.

[TexasCajun]

So, like all Affirmative Actions policies, the bar is lowered for Senator Obama as he declares victory without the required number of pledged delegates; the super delegates won't be counted till the convention.

[mdittmar]

majority of pledged delegates?

Looks like the dems want to disenfranchise their own voters.

Operation Chaos members,the word is; "Cardinal",I repeat, the word is "Cardinal";)

[Uncle Hal]

The MSM will go orgasmic over this event. They will give Obama tons of coverage and Obama will leap to a big leap in the polls. The race will be on. Hopefully McCain will be able to recover.

[The_Republican]

[unkus]

What is “Cardinal”?

[Miss Didi]

RUSH: Mrs. Clinton needs to demand counting the popular vote in Michigan and Florida. She needs to demand this! She then perhaps should do what liberals always do in the end and take the whole matter to court. As for the votes in Michigan and Florida, I have a question: Will the Democrat Party become the party of disenfranchisement? Will it become the party that denies millions of people the right to participate in their own electoral process? Will it become the party where some votes count more than others? Will the Democrat Party become the party of back-room deals? The Justice Department civil rights division should investigate the Democrat Party's rules, and Mrs. Clinton should call for this. Those rules disenfranchise millions of voters, including minority voters in Michigan and Florida, and the Democrats are very concerned about the minority vote, and there's a bunch of minorities in Florida and Michigan whose votes are not going to matter a hill of beans to the nomination process.(cont.)



RUSH: Stay in the Race, Mrs. Clinton; Investigate the Undemocratic DNC!

[Gator113]

Interesting political move.

Obama has just claimed victory by saying that he intends to.

Clinton has got to be in meltdown...perhaps even homicidal.

[Stentor]

“Here’s to send all your stupid white asses to “camp”.

[ExTexasRedhead]

Obama cabinet:

Secretary of Defense - John Vietnam Kerry
Secretary of State - Nancy Pelosi
Secretary of Education and Swimming - Ted Kennedy
Secretary of Homeland Security - Osama Ben Ladin

[Miss Didi]

[Fishrrman]

“Obama may declare victory on May 20”

A bit presumptuous is this dark-skinned fellow, eh?

- John