Posted on 05/09/2008 10:25:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Whether or not the Democratic primary marathon between two path-breaking candidates has been good for the party or the country, it has clearly been good for people like me: political scientists who study voting behavior. We've been given a data gold mine, the results of an experiment that no one intended to conduct.
Sen. Barack Obama is the all but certain Democratic nominee, but voting patterns in Indiana and North Carolina show that resistance to a black candidate among some white Democrats remains a serious threat to his chances in November:
· As in other recent primaries, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won the large majority of the white vote, and she decisively carried the small towns and rural areas of both states.
· Almost half of the voters in both states indicated that the recent controversy over Obama's former minister, Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., was an important factor in their decision.
· Only 51 percent of Clinton voters in Indiana and 49 percent in North Carolina indicated that they would vote for Obama in November.
Obama continues to have particular difficulty with one segment of the Democratic electorate: white working-class voters. In the most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, for example, white Democrats with a college degree preferred Obama to Clinton, 59 to 37 percent. But white Democrats without a college degree preferred Clinton to Obama by a 55 to 36 percent margin.
To some extent, Obama's problems here stem from Clinton's special appeal to one segment of this group, white working-class women. And Democratic candidates have been having problems with lunch-bucket whites for a long time. (Just ask John Kerry.) But there is another reason -- one that many discuss delicately -- why Obama is having difficulty with white working-class voters: race.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Sure, the average American public school graduate is busy watching American Idol eating pop tarts or Cheetos at age 40, and too stupid to know how to count, let alone understand statistics.
“....resistance to a black candidate...”
At what magic point does one became “black”?
Although genotypically 50% black, Obama is half-white and was completely raised in a white family.
Why is this startling?
Or put another way: "Hillary is having difficulty with black voters who are voting for Obama in up to 91% numbers: RACE"
And when does opposing Obama equate to resisting a black candidate? Could it be they don’t like a bamboozler?
And do those voting for Obama therefore oppose a white candidate?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
No.
It took a professor to write a piece pointing out why white liberals need to feel guilty enough to vote for his candidate whether it gags them or not.
Fixed it. You guys keep thinking it's about race.
I just discovered I'm a "symbolic racist."
You, and about 250 million other Americans, I'm guessing.
Agreed. All except African-Americans and latte drinkers are rejecting this Marxist, while Hillary morphs into a moderate Republican to attract the moderate Democrats.
It’s pathetic, however, that the Clintons feel the need to go racial when the more useful triangulation is in the political sphere.
Wha we have here is resistance to a black candidate with a racist black pastor and a harridan wife by whites who fear that might mean his election might just possibly put a closet racist in power over them.
I listend this week to a long diatribe by a union forman who bosses a crew composed of old guys. There was a recent layoff and union senority rules mean those left are all gray heads.
He was afraid of Obama because of his Muslim ties. If once Muslim, he must still be somewhat Muslim. Can’t overlook what that would when dealing with the terrorost. Obama just won’t do. McCain suffered as a pow.
Good Democrat, solid union man, scared to death of being a racist and creating the Muslim strawman. Fallback voting position
The “magic point” in B.O.’s case was when he joined Jeremiah Wright’s church to affirm his blackness and begin a political career in an environment in which having a white mother was not a plus.
I myself am resisting a black Muslim, and a stupid one on top of that.
It wasn’t real likely that either Dem nominee would carry Indiana or NC in November in any case. The worry for the Dems should be in PA and MN, other states that are more ‘purple.’
Umm, there is one more problem with Obama — he’s a Marxist. Oh, and let’s talk about reparations, which is a big deal to his pastor. Oh and while we are making a list, ....
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