Posted on 05/10/2008 2:51:32 PM PDT by Red Steel
On Friday, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. States with 111 Votes are “leaners,” and states with 38 Votes are Toss-Ups
When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).
A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House. Leaners are states that narrowly lean to one party or the other at this time but remain competitive. See a summary of recent polls and Rasmussen Market expectations for key states in the Electoral College showdown.
Twelve states with 149 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator will be updated daily until Election Day. More information below table. Balance of Power Calculator - Electoral College Safe Republican 168 Likely Republican 21 Leans Republican 51 Toss-Up 38 Leans Democratic 60 Likely Democratic 43 Safe Democratic 157
This Balance of Power Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends. The weight given to each variable will vary over time (i.e.—polls will be counted more heavily in October than today, a state’s history will be counted more heavily today than in October).
Until the Democratic nominee is determined, the polling data used for each state will be based upon an average of the results for Barack Obama vs. John McCain and Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain.
Status changes will be noted as they occur with an explanation of what factors brought about the change.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently projects 157 Electoral Votes as “Safely Democratic,” 43 Electoral Votes as “Likely Democratic” and 60 Electoral Votes as “Leans Democratic.”
On the other side of the aisle, 168 Electoral Votes are projected as “Safely Republican,” 21 are projected as “Likely Republican” and 51 are projected as “Leans Republican".
Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Likely Democratic: Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), and Washington (11).
Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).
Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).
Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
Rasmussen Markets data shows that the Democratic candidate is currently given a % chance of winning the White House in November. Visit the Rasmussen Reports home page for the most current polling data on all topics.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll provides an ongoing update of the popular vote projections
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIES Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
West Virginia: Clinton 56% Obama 27%
Obama's Vice-President By Gerald M. Pomper
Electoral College: Democrats 200 Republicans 189 Leaners 111 Toss-Up 38
Oregon: Obama 51% Clinton 39%
Kentucky: Clinton 56% Obama 31%
Heh.
Anyone counting Florida as a “leaner” is not counting in Florida correctly.
Florida is not electing Obama.
I find this hard to believe.
The best the dem can get for NJ right now is leaning. NO way, is it a sure thing.
Until the Democratic nominee is determined, the polling data used for each state will be based upon an average of the results for Barack Obama vs. John McCain and Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain.
There are a lot of states that will shift one or two categories toward McCain the moment it's Obama v. McCain in the polling. And, once pro-Republican 527's start hitting the airwaves, newspapers and internet with the Obama-Wright-Ayers-Tillman-Rezko axis, even more.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that the Democratic candidate is currently given a % chance of winning the White House
Must be a secret.
It may not be a secret. Is the % given just on the premium site for which one must pay for?
Wisconsin leaning Democrat? On another thread Rasmussin reports McCain leading Obama in Wisconsin 47-43. Which is it?
This really means nothing until a candidate is selected.
Neither McCain or Obama were barn burners in their debates. Expect gaffes.
I think that McCain has a natural lead based on generation and experience and the nation being at war.
The axis of evil.
DRUGS - the only explantion. barack mcgovern is in for an ash kicking.
I agree. If the Dim nominee is Obama (and it will almost surely be him), and the word gets out about his character and history, McCain will win, even without the support of some hard-core conservatives.
Rassmussen bassmussen. Watch the stock market if you want to know how the elections are going.
I wish I shared your confidence. Obama is Kennedy for the yearning masses.
not earning. not learning. yearning. beware.
I don’t know. I figured it was just a typo.
I certainly would not put Kentucky in the “Solidly Republican” camp... leaning, probably. But, we did just elect a Rat Govenor... and, several new Rat Congressmen. They’re kind of on a roll here.
And forget PA also.
I predict the Diamondbacks will win the World Series in 2013.
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