Turnout twists

The Washington Times ^ | May 19, 2008 | Donald Lambro

[neverdem]

Democrats claim high voter turnout in their primaries is proof positive they'll win the White House in November.

It is a familiar claim, made by one party or the other, that pops up every four years, but it contains not a morsel of truth. Many studies show no correlation between party primary participation and general election results.

Nevertheless, in a memorandum to its supporters and the news media, the Democratic National Committee is crowing, "record turnout during the primaries has been transformational for the Democratic Party as record numbers of new voters are being registered." In this equation, new primary voters equal more general election votes. "Democrats are energized all across the country and ... if Democrats show up and talk about our values, we will win," the memo asserts.

No one knows more about turnout than Curt Gans, the veteran voter analyst who heads the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University. So when I asked him if the Democrats' claims had merit, he explained it is wrong to conclude a party's higher primary turnout will result in an election victory.

"It is true that turnout has been extraordinary this primary season, particularly in the Democratic Party, but also in the Republican Party," Mr. Gans told me. As of last week, "24 states that have had primaries have had record turnout, 22 Democratic primaries have set records and 12 Republican primaries have set records."

"But there is not necessarily a correlation between primary turnout and general election turnout," he continued. "There is no..."

--snip--

Going back several decades, the learned duo found no partisan advantage between primary turnout and the outcome in a general election, a rule that "holds true regardless of the region of the country examined and regardless of the time period studied."...

[Bender2]

[unkus]

I think we are going to see a big “Silent minority” turnout in favor of McCain. Israel is going to get him elected because they are going to hit Iran and take out their nuclear program. It will wake up America. Unless McCain totally screws things up, he should win. A lot of people who say they won’t vote for McCain will do just that. The stakes are too high. I will hold my nose and vote for him.

[Bender2]

Re: The stakes are too high. I will hold my nose and vote for him.

Yep, me, too! But looking at many posts here on FR, there are folks about that will smile smugly saying they didn't vote for John as the radioactive ash begins to drop upon them from the funeral piles at NYC & DC.