Are you ready for future labor shortages?

The elder population, 65 and older, is the largest growing sector in all developed countries. According to Census Bureau projections, the U.S. elderly population will more than double between now and the year 2050, to 80 million.

As far back as 1960, the American economy has benefited from the huge bubble of “baby boomers,” those born between 1946 and 1964, as a primary source of labor. However, starting around 2010, an enormous demographic shift will begin, resulting in a large increase in the 65 and over age group and a decline in the 20-64 age group. This means starting in 2010 the labor force will begin growing at the same or a slower rate than the overall population.

These changes will result in labor shortages in all areas for employers. Even if baby boomers keep working past the age of 66, eventually their participation rates will decrease, affecting labor force growth.

A second and less obvious force is the participation of women which has augmented the labor force with steady increases for the past few decades. This participation rate has leveled off, however, and will also decrease in the coming years.

According to the Census Bureau, 43 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force will be eligible to retire in the next 11 years. Yet, according to a recent survey by Manpower, 80 percent of American companies have no recruitment strategy and 72 percent have no retention plans. After consulting with dozens of companies, it is clear that many have simply put their heads in the sand hoping the forecasters are wrong.

Organizations need to investigate their own workforce’s demographics and develop an understanding of the immediacy of the baby boom exit. To help you think through strategies for your company, ask the following questions:

• What are your company’s demographics? Examine the age, gender, and years in position and anniversary dates of all employees. Exactly what talent will be needed 10 years from now?

• What are your company’s retirement policies? Is early retirement encouraged or discouraged? Are their opportunities for part-time employment after retirement age?

• What programs do you have in place now to capture key competencies and critical work knowledge of employees who will be retiring? Is there a mentor program to develop employees?

• What is the gender breakdown? What programs are in place to correct gender imbalances? Are there programs that address the needs of women in the workforce? Though women make up about 48 percent of the workforce, many employers still have rigid schedules and expectations that are remnants of an all male workforce.

• Will your organization need to address global concerns due to off shoring or immigrant labor? As the aging trend is worldwide, there will be labor shortages for all skilled positions. The demand will be especially acute in the areas of skilled trades, technology and healthcare.

• Is your organization prepared to meet the needs of the over-65 customer segment? Smart employers are preparing for this large customer base with specialized programs and services. The boomers have discretionary money and the time to spend it.

There are four key recruitment and retention strategies that every business must consider to prepare for the future.

• Have a plan to address retiring boomers. Don’t let critical knowledge and experience walk out the door. Have them mentor employees and participate in training efforts.

• Offer choice, flexibility and responsiveness to today’s lifestyles. Research by Sales Power of more than 3,000 companies demonstrates that younger employees gravitate to firms who can define a career path, not just a job. They will seek jobs that have meaning for them personally often choosing employment based on recommendations of their peers.

• Utilize the Internet and technology to reach the Gen X and Gen Y employees. Corporate websites should include podcasts to interact with potential candidates. Online applications need to be addressed promptly; ideally within 24 hours. All applicants should be contacted personally by phone to establish a connection.

• Mentor, develop and train to grow your own. Everyone will be trying to recruit the best of the best in the coming years. Build the employee loyalty at your company by investing in training and development. Every company needs a Leadership Development Program that is personalized and customized for the employee base.

Companies who make investments in people talent will be rewarded with a solid employee base for the future. The goal is not to just have great employees but the best talent available.

“and I can’t wait for the Generation Whiner who stands up before Mr. Justice Jones and whines,”

Unfortunately, we will eventually get a Justice Jones who might say, “Whoa, chill out, babe, that’s a bummer!” (To the defendant) “Dude, you are SO goin’ back to jail until things get sorted out here!”;)

To means testing add the removal of the Social Security wage cap and you succeed in turning Social Security into a wealth transfer system. ... I have no evidence of such a plan

Obama calls for removing the SSI cap on his web site.

From his web site: Obama believes that the first place to look for ways to strengthen Social Security is the payroll tax system. Currently, the Social Security payroll tax applies to only the first $102,000 a worker makes. Obama supports increasing the maximum amount of earnings covered by Social Security and he will work with Congress and the American people to choose a payroll tax reform package that will keep Social Security solvent for at least the next half century.

I seriously doubt that there are 10-15% who are physically incapable of working. More like 3%. How often do you see a really badly disabled person. Simple things like being confined to a wheel chair are not the problem they used to be. We’ve spent billions making everything accessable to the handicapped. That SHOULD be a two way street. OK, not get up and take care of yourself.

You can tell how hard it is to get good help, buy the number of facial piercings on your local store clerks.

My sons were in their junior and senior years of HS last year. They don’t even look for jobs anymore. People come to them with job offers, and they pick the job they want. They don’t have any special talents. They just look good and talk well.

That’s great to hear. The problem nowadays is that many HS kids from upper-middle class to wealthy are no longer interested in looking for summer jobs. They believe manual labor is beneath them.

I seriously doubt that there are 10-15% who are physically incapable of working. More like 3%.

I was referring to 10-15% of those gaining government support, not 10-15% of the general population. Perhaps I was being generous, but there are people who, despite not appearing out of the ordinary, are still incapable of performing work. The problem is that many more claim that status than actually possess it.

Labor shortages are not a problem unless you have people who expect to rely upon non-existent workers to subsidize their lifestyles.

And there you hsve outlined the dilemma. Who will labor to support the many people retiring and those who have never worked a day in their lives and instead collect welfare and other governmnet handouts. What about the large prision population? Who will subsidize their continuing incarceration?

What (s)he said. Abort half of Gen X then complain about the consequences.

The narcisistic generation has come full circle. I hope they get caretakers with fetishes in their nursing homes.

What I find really peculiar is, if there is such a labor shortage, why are employers so particular about who they hire? I am in the IT field, been in operations for a long time but would like to branch out into database administration, website development or some other sub-speciality.

I can't tell you how many hundreds of jobs (I currently work as a contractor at IBM) I have applied for. If they ask for five qualifications and you only have four, they won't even look at you. I am trying to keep from believing it is some other factor, i.e., age (I'm 50), race (I'm Caucasian), or politics (I'm conservative).

Seems to me that if they were truly hurting for workers they would be more willing to train, or at least be willing to let you have more OJT.

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