Posted on 06/21/2008 10:39:12 AM PDT by nwrep
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Hey Newsweek, nice try!
LOL. Yeah. This poll is more like it.
Barry received little to no bump after receiving the Dem nomination. He is screwed.
B.O. should be way out in front at this stage of the game.
Hope. Change.
Oh no, now Newsweek will have to rush out another poll and show Obama up by 20 points. The Newsweek editors are freaking out.
Newsweek reporting is suspect. Gallup has Obama up by 2. Rasmusseen has Obama up by 5. Fox News has Obama up by 4. These polls are more in the ballpark of where the race stands.
Hey McCain. If you can’t beat this anti-American clown by double digits, you are a complete incompetent and a complete disgrace.
This is a duplicate post. One came out earlier today.
Obama can have a 60-40 lead nationally, but unless he wins enough states, he will lose.
He can even win the popular vote by a big margin and still lose.
Numeours analyses have shown over the years that this is an impossibility. If a person wins by more than 3 percentage points nationally, there is no way he will lose the electoral college.
Obama can have a 60-40 lead nationally, but unless he wins enough states, he will lose.
The above statement is absurd. Anyone who wins 60-40 is looking at a 500+ electoral vote sweep.
Assuming a national poll is properly weighted, a candidate who is far ahead in the polls and far ahead in the popular vote is the candidate who will win.
Not really. Can you provide the link?
My point is that a national poll is not as important at the individual state polls. I stand by that statement.
If that happens there WILL be riots this time. If the election is even close and bambi loses.....riots riots riots. McCain has to win by a landslide to keep the peace. This is a scary election in so many different ways.
Of course but this far out from the election this is just part of the game.
Hopefully this is a good sign being all the good work the media has put in for Obama. The resistance is clearly evident and that’s a good sign nationally.
People need to learn more about the real Obama not the propaganda spewing Obamanation.
Let’s talk about Rezko and Obama and the little energy business thing in Iraq.
Good place to start.
If election year summer polls really meant anything we would have horrific memories of President Dukakis,or President Kerry.
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/06/20/aol-straw-poll-june-20-27/
My favorite.........AOL straw poll.
Sure, that statement is quite correct and defensible. I agree with it also. I was just trying to point out that if national polls show a wide gap (say 5-10%) then the EC follows. In close elections, like we have had recently, nationall polls are meaningless.
Barry received little to no bump after receiving the Dem nomination. He is screwed..
...considering he has not yet received said nomination, which will occur at the convention and not before, a bump at this point should not be expected, nor should it be used as evidence concerning the candidate’s electability...
LOL! I guess you would like it!
The only site I know of off-hand that calculates that probability is:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
The site owner is a Democrat, but his results are poll aggregations and I’ve never seen evidence he’s cooking the books.
531’s calculated probability of losing the popular vote and winning the electoral vote if the election was held today is:
2.33% for Obama
1.71% for McCain
:)
It is true that there are fifty-one separate elections, but I read somewhere that a 3 or 4 point differential nationally is impossible to overcome in the electoral college too.
Have you seen the look of commitment on the face of an Obamaniac? These folks mean business and we best not take them lightly.
Then we have Newsweak, whose managing editor in 2004 admitted the media WANTS Kerry to win and admits their favorable coverage is worth about 15 points in the polls to the Democrat.
http://www.mediaresearch.org/cyberalerts/2004/cyb20040712.asp#1
Who to believe, Newsweak, professional pollsters, Newsweak, professional pollsters...hmmm.
If the animals riot then it is they who will suffer along with the Democrat Party.
no way. newsweak sez the race is over. hussein wins.
Let’s see here. Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, Pew, all the professional polling outfits have Hussein up by an average of about 3-4 points on polls all conducted up top and including yesterday.
Then we have Newsweak, whose managing editor in 2004 admitted the media WANTS Kerry to win and admits their favorable coverage is worth about 15 points in the polls to the Democrat.
http://www.mediaresearch.org/cyberalerts/2004/cyb20040712.asp#1
Who to believe, Newsweak, professional pollsters, Newsweak, professional pollsters...hmmm.
It has McCain winning in DC 60-40. When DC votes for any Republican, even a faux Republican like McCain, pigs will fly out of my butt.
I don’t think any of the polls are worth a plug nickel at this point so I favor the one that shows Obama losing. ;)
Not possible to take the Obambots lightly as they have most things in their favor and are in fact the favorite.
We are depending on the old coot McCain not to screw himself up just to give himself a chance.
Obama can make any number of mistakes and has but the media will just ignore it.
Praise Obama!
Given the way CNN, MSNBC, NYT and the vast majority of news organizations are unashamedly cheering for Obama to win, I refuse to trust any of these accursed "polls."
Barry's counting on 57
We all have to admit, the country is split. Regardless of the Hillary voters who say they will not vote for Barack, we still have a split country and it will come down to the Electoral College again. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Virginia are the key states. And if you read the article on Jim Webb in the WSJ today, you might want to just color Virginia blue right now.
JoMa
btt
LoL! Only the granolas in Vermont show Obama ahead in the AOL poll.
Someone said that the Pollsters are over sampling Dems as much as 25% more than Repubs.
ELECTION 2004
AOL poll: Bush
wins in landslide
Unscientific survey indicates
president collecting 48 states
By Joe Kovacs
© 2008 WorldNetDaily.com
 President Bush |
In what some political observers might view as shocking news, a poll of America Online members is currently forecasting a landslide victory for President Bush, who collects 48 of the 50 states in this year's electoral race.
The unscientific survey, whose results change in real time as more people vote, reveals with more than 34,000 participants, Bush takes a whopping 58 percent of the popular vote compared to 40 percent for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39932
Read my post @# 31.
Pres. polls may not be worth a nickel. However, since the AOL did predict the Bush win in 04, I’ll extrapolate a prediction using the two AOL polls together that McCain will win by 4% this November. I think it’s more scientific than NewsWeak polling - LoL!
One of the problems with the AOL poll is that to vote you must enter a code and for some reason I believe many B.O. supporters do not excel at skills that take an IQ higher than 50
“...considering he has not yet received said nomination, which will occur at the convention and not before...”
Good point. I stand corrected.
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