Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 46%, McCain 44%

GALLUP ^ | June 21, 2008

[saganite]

LOL! I guess you would like it!

[M. Dodge Thomas]

The only site I know of off-hand that calculates that probability is:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

The site owner is a Democrat, but his results are poll aggregations and I’ve never seen evidence he’s cooking the books.

531’s calculated probability of losing the popular vote and winning the electoral vote if the election was held today is:

2.33% for Obama
1.71% for McCain

[BARLF]

:)

[Theodore R.]

It is true that there are fifty-one separate elections, but I read somewhere that a 3 or 4 point differential nationally is impossible to overcome in the electoral college too.

[Theodore R.]

Have you seen the look of commitment on the face of an Obamaniac? These folks mean business and we best not take them lightly.

[lexusppd]

Let's see here. Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, Pew, all the professional polling outfits have Hussein up by an average of about 3-4 points on polls all conducted up top and including yesterday.

Then we have Newsweak, whose managing editor in 2004 admitted the media WANTS Kerry to win and admits their favorable coverage is worth about 15 points in the polls to the Democrat.

http://www.mediaresearch.org/cyberalerts/2004/cyb20040712.asp#1

Who to believe, Newsweak, professional pollsters, Newsweak, professional pollsters...hmmm.

[lexusppd]

If the animals riot then it is they who will suffer along with the Democrat Party.

[Recovering_Democrat]

no way. newsweak sez the race is over. hussein wins.

[jamese777]

Let’s see here. Gallup, Rasmussen, Fox, Pew, all the professional polling outfits have Hussein up by an average of about 3-4 points on polls all conducted up top and including yesterday.
Then we have Newsweak, whose managing editor in 2004 admitted the media WANTS Kerry to win and admits their favorable coverage is worth about 15 points in the polls to the Democrat.

http://www.mediaresearch.org/cyberalerts/2004/cyb20040712.asp#1

Who to believe, Newsweak, professional pollsters, Newsweak, professional pollsters...hmmm.

---

Newsweek’s polls are conducted by a private, for profit polling corporation, Princeton Associates.
They are a reputable national polling organization and their final poll for the 2004 election was reasonably close to the actual outcome of the election. Newsweek had it 50% for Bush and 44% for Kerry. The election was 51% for Bush and 48% for Kerry.
http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm#Pollster
Any polling organization can have an outlier poll this far out from an election. Newsweek/Princeton Associates’ latest poll is an outlier.

[Vigilanteman]

It has McCain winning in DC 60-40. When DC votes for any Republican, even a faux Republican like McCain, pigs will fly out of my butt.

[BARLF]

I don’t think any of the polls are worth a plug nickel at this point so I favor the one that shows Obama losing. ;)

[romanesq]

Not possible to take the Obambots lightly as they have most things in their favor and are in fact the favorite.

We are depending on the old coot McCain not to screw himself up just to give himself a chance.

Obama can make any number of mistakes and has but the media will just ignore it.

Praise Obama!

[Prole]

Why am I inclined to believe that thse so-called "polls" are heavily oversampling registered democrats for the results?

Given the way CNN, MSNBC, NYT and the vast majority of news organizations are unashamedly cheering for Obama to win, I refuse to trust any of these accursed "polls."

[Tribune7]

It is true that there are fifty-one separate elections,

Barry's counting on 57

[joma89]

We all have to admit, the country is split. Regardless of the Hillary voters who say they will not vote for Barack, we still have a split country and it will come down to the Electoral College again. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Virginia are the key states. And if you read the article on Jim Webb in the WSJ today, you might want to just color Virginia blue right now.

JoMa

[Cacique]

btt

[Red Steel]

LoL! Only the granolas in Vermont show Obama ahead in the AOL poll.

[Red Steel]

Why am I inclined to believe that thse so-called "polls" are heavily oversampling registered democrats for the results?

Someone said that the Pollsters are over sampling Dems as much as 25% more than Repubs.

[Red Steel]

You may find this 2004 presidential poll interesting in comparison of today's AOL poll:

ELECTION 2004
AOL poll: Bush
wins in landslide
Unscientific survey indicates
president collecting 48 states

---

Posted: August 12, 2004
1:00 am Eastern

By Joe Kovacs
© 2008 WorldNetDaily.com

President Bush

In what some political observers might view as shocking news, a poll of America Online members is currently forecasting a landslide victory for President Bush, who collects 48 of the 50 states in this year's electoral race.

The unscientific survey, whose results change in real time as more people vote, reveals with more than 34,000 participants, Bush takes a whopping 58 percent of the popular vote compared to 40 percent for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39932

[BARLF]

Read my post @# 31.