Posted on 07/17/2008 2:03:05 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
Here's something unlikely to make the cover of Time. From the Science & Public Policy Institute:
WASHINGTON (7-15-08) — Mathematical proof that there is no "climate crisis" appears today in a major, peer-reviewed paper in Physics and Society, a learned journal of the 10,000-strong American Physical Society, SPPI reports.
Christopher Monckton, who once advised Margaret Thatcher, demonstrates via 30 equations that computer models used by the UN's climate panel (IPCC) were pre-programmed with overstated values for the three variables whose product is "climate sensitivity" (temperature increase in response to greenhouse-gas increase), resulting in a 500-2000% overstatement of CO2's effect on temperature in the IPCC's latest climate assessment report, published in 2007.
Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered [http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/index.cfm] demonstrates that later this century a doubling of the concentration of CO2 compared with pre-industrial levels will increase global mean surface temperature not by the 6 °F predicted by the IPCC but, harmlessly, by little more than 1 °F.
The paper reveals the following:
• The IPCC's 2007 climate summary overstated CO2's impact on temperature by 500-2000%;
• CO2 enrichment will add little more than 1 °F (0.6 °C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;
• Not one of the three key variables whose product is climate sensitivity can be measured directly;
• The IPCC's values for these key variables are taken from only four published papers, not 2,500;
• The IPCC's values for each of the three variables, and hence for climate sensitivity, are overstated;
• "Global warming" halted ten years ago, and surface temperature has been falling for seven years;
• Not one of the computer models relied upon by the IPCC predicted so long and rapid a cooling;
• The IPCC inserted a table into the scientists' draft, overstating the effect of ice-melt by 1000%;
• It was proved 50 years ago that predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible;
• Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed;
• In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years.
Someone had better get this news to Al Gore, since he won't be seeing it on TV. I'm sure he'll want to apologize for causing a lot of senseless hysteria over nothing.
Thank you for keeping me up to date on this. I just sent it out to everyone in our school who told me that “An Inconvenient Truth” was hard science. I expect grimaces when the school year begins. LOL
bookmarked
So THAT'S what he is up to...
“What could be the implications of a solar minimum and are they temporary or more lasting?”
“Could be” a lot of things, and also depends on a lot of other things. Short version: Less sunspots = indication of weaker magnetic field from sun = more cosmic rays reach earth = more clouds = more sunlight deflected away from earth = cooling. That’s the theory at least, with some good science (NOT modeling) to back it. How much cooling? A little? Maybe. A lot? Maybe. If you get a BIG volcano or a lot of volcanic activity (which drarfs what man makes), the SO2 (I think) ejected into the atmosphere can increase clouds’ reflectivity, and you can get a “year without a summer” as in 1816. It’s a one-two punch that we’ve seen before. That would be very bad, obivously.
My bet is that if the sun’s activity doesn’t increase in the next few months, we’re going to get our collective rears kicked by this winter. Think “long, cold, lotsa snow.” After that, who knows?
Then again, I could be wrong. The climate is a VERY complex system.
I hope you are being sarcastic. You must know that the byproducts of burning any hydrocarbon are co2 and h2o...that’s high school chemistry man
ping
Wrong.
There's no global warming, no Club of Rome, No Population Bomb.
Wrong on Welfare Reform, wrong on Communism being Utopian, wrong on Iraq, wrong on nuclear power, wrong on drilling in Alaska - wrong on almost everything.
LOL
Oh dang it. I knew I forgot something...
Interesting comments. You’re probably right.
Well, something akin to this needs to take place, even if it is a concerted effort to simply reveal the truth about ozone layers, and global warming. It’s all a hand wringing frenzy of giberish.
Is it the atmosphere temp ~ 5ft above ground level (~ where most of the land based thermometers are located)? Why is the temperature of the air 5 ft above the oceans not measured? If we measure the temperature of the oceans slightly below the surface, why not measure the temperature of the earth just below the surface a similar distance? How about the temperature of the Earth's core? The temperature where people live? Where people don't live? The temperature of the the oceans at all depths? Lake water temperatures?
Everyone seems to use a different "system" when they jabber on. Why is it the average temperature rather than the max and min? Time averaged readings? Why don't they account for leap years when calculating annual averages at a given station? Why adjust the CO2 readings at Mauna Loa when the wind blows from the forests below? Everyone is arguing about an elephant that none can see but only touch one appendage.
Um..We are not adding carbon either. We may be taking carbon that is already in the environment and putting it into another form when we burn carbon containing fuels, but then all those hydrocarbons were once living and therefore once came from carbon dioxide aspirated by a plant. Unless we find a way to mine the moon or Mars, we can’t add anything to the environment here on earth. We got a well stocked planet.
Bookkeeping is two simple math equations.
1. Assets minus liabilities = equity.
2. Income = current year equity minus prior year equity
The rest is terminology.
Audits are like a cake recipe where the evidence and statistics vary based on the cake and the baker.
Stick a fork in AGW; it’s done!
That’s going to leave a mark.
Yeah, it will be just like the tempature of Venus some day. I bet the alarmists will argue this because it is true, in about 2 billion years from now when the sun expands. During that time, the tempature will be 400 degrees. We had better tax Americans 10 trillion dollars to prevent it. Gee, maybe someone has figured out it will ten trillion dollars to support the boomer generation’s social security and medicaid. Gee, what age are most politicians?
Yeah, funny things those variables are, aren’t they?
Since 1998 was so much hotter than usual, with the strong El Niño, comparisons to it are cherry-picking.
If we invented, say.....powdered global warming — “what would we add.”
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