Quinnipiac: Obama Stays On Top in Key Swing States

Political Wire ^ | 7/31/08 | Taegan Goddard

[Alter Kaker]

The latest Quinnipiac Swing State Polls are out:

• Florida: Obama leads McCain, 46% to 44%
• Ohio: Obama leads McCain, 46% to 44%
• Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain, 49% to 42%

[safeasthebanks]

"...they nailed it by .5% in 2006."

Nailed what exactly? 2006 was a bunch of individual Senate and House races, so please be more specific. Also, please provide, if you can, which races the other polls had listed as "safe" for the Repubs. that Quinnip. correctly predicted as Dem wins.

Please note well, I'm specifically refering to your comment about a seat being called "safe" by the other pollsters, not some race where they may have had (for example) George Allen up, but well within the margin of error.

Thanks in advance for the info.

[JerseyDvl]

WOW, if it’s this close in a poll then McCain is clearly winning. Polls are as rigged as the media that cover them.

[italianquaker]

I guess it is all those “people” that dont want to see odumbo on our currency

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Since you have required a “Post Audit” on me in order to somehow validate my opinion, I based the info from my own memory in 2006 after the election.

Quinnipiac did an exit poll on voter turn out. They found that Republicans did NOT stay home and both Democrats and Republicans showed up in traditional numbers. It was Independent/swing voters who turned the tide in all critical elections were Republican incumbents were defeated.

Those are the facts as they stand. The data supporting it was presented then and there and I saw what I saw. If you have a problem with that, go back on their archives yourself. That still does not invalidate what I said.

While you do your research, look in the archives for “The Least Republican Generation” and the Quinnipiac exit polling results nation wide for 2006.

Thanks in advance for your own hard work and personal responsibility for other people’s opinions.

[jveritas]

Agree 100%.

[jveritas]

This poll is crap.

It is impossible that Obama is going to win Florida. It is nearly impossible that Obama is going to win Ohio. Obama has 50% chance of winning Pennsylvania but no more.

[mngran2]

One poll isn’t very useful, but the fact that Obama was ahead in three out of four polls taken in Florida in July leads me to believe he’d win that state if the election were today. But it’s not, it’s three months away.

[Sooth2222]

For the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Quinnipiac had it 51 Clinton/44 Obama; the results were 54.4% Clinton/45.4% Obama, they were off 2.2. Close, but still no cigar.

[comebacknewt]

Quinnipiac is pretty good in the Northeast. Pretty lousy in the rest of the country.

McCain is in very good shape in Florida and Ohio. Pennsylvania is getting closer.

It is the RATs who should be worried. Not us.

[Sooth2222]

From the Quinnipiac news release:

With likely voters concerned more about energy than the war in Iraq, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's recent tour apparently didn't help, as Arizona Sen. John McCain gained on the Democratic front- runner in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

[Sooth2222]

I don't think anyone has a clue as to the magnitude of the "Bradley effect" in a national election, but it seems that it's "something". My guess is it's worth 1 1/2 points to McCain and 1 1/2 points from Obama, but that's just a guess. Maybe it's 5, maybe it's 0 (but I doubt that).

[LS]

What you refer to is the “Wilder Effect,” named for former VA Governor Doug Wilder, a black man, who always polled higher than he actually did in the election. Pollsters figured out that whites didn’t want to be seen as “racist” so they told pollsters the “politically correct” answer, but when it came time to vote, voted against him.

[LS]

I think you’re referring to the “Wilder effect,” about VA Gov. Doug Wilder who led in the polls, but lost the election.

[safeasthebanks]

Uh, I haven't required anything, little man. YOu were the one spouting off unsupported comments about how great Quin's poll results were in 2006. I didn't know if what you were saying was true or not, so I, in a civil way, asked for a little support.

Based on the defensiveness of your reply, I now understand you were just talking out of your a$$ (as suspected).

[Snow Eagle]

Yo Pennsylvania - what’s going on down there???? McC should be beating BHO (’cept for Philly of course). Stop clinging to your guns and religion and start fighting back!

[Alter Kaker]

"It's the economy, stupid."

People are hurting, and that makes them reflexively want to try something different. Right now, that puts them in Obama's camp.

[HamiltonJay]

Won’t win PA either.

[HamiltonJay]

Fauxbama will not win PA. For him to have a prayer here, he needs to be up near 20 points today... and he’s already peaked and falling... He has ZERO chance in PA.

[Norman Bates]

No he didn’t lose. Wilder had a commanding lead in the polls up to election day and just scraped by.