Posted on 08/11/2008 10:29:32 AM PDT by Bokababe
WARSAW -- Polish analysts and a part of the political scene are linking the South Ossetia crisis to that in Kosovo, Beta says.
The current armed conflict in the breakaway Georgian region is seen as the Russian answer to the western recognition of Kosovo Albanians' unilateral declaration of independence, the Polish media are saying.
"This is the Russian answer to the recognition of Kosovo. That recognition was in fact a gift to Russia," Polish People's Party European MP Janusz Wojciechowski told TVN24.
Wojciechowski, whose party is a partner in Donald Tusk's cabinet, warned that the case of Kosovo, where a part of the international community accepted the declaration of secession, "shows that it cannot be counted on double standards to pass".
"Russia is using it now", he concluded.
Warnings that the recognition of Kosovo will serve to the detriment of Georgia were heard in Poland as early as February this year.
Bearing in mind the risks for Poland's allies in the Caucasus, Georgia above all, Warsaw's recognition of the Kosovo Albanians' secession was described as an irresponsible move by the legendary anti-communist leader and former Polish president, Lech Walesa.
"Recognizing Kosovo will bring nothing but trouble. No one can be denied the right to self-determination, but only within the bounds of common sense," he was quoted as saying at the time.
Walesa stressed in his statements to the Polish media that Kosovo was "with its irresponsible behavior, causing new divisions in Europe and globally and undermining international relations".
One mistaken bombing of the Chinese embassy does not an invasion of Serbia proper make.
Georgia, Russia and Oil:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/950c5612-66f6-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46173
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/09/MNDG127U55.DTL
Georgia, Russia and Oil:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/950c5612-66f6-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46173
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/09/MNDG127U55.DTL
I’m not prepared to believe for one second that this is about South Ossetia or about Kosovo. In my humble opinion: this is about NATO. A NATO-allied Georgia with access to oil and the revenue it would bring, would be able to field a significant force on Russia’s southern border. I believe that this is a calculated move to either eliminate Georgia entirely or otherwise make it militarily useless to NATO.
There are a couple of potential intentions I can surmise on the part of the Russians, but all would have the effect of militarily neutralizing Georgia:
1. Completely take over the country and install a puppet regime.
2. Proceed to the Armenian border (assuming they plan to stop there!), splitting the country in two.
- This denies Georgia Black Sea port access, which prevents (1) NATO coming to their aid by sea and (2) denies them revenue.
- This also allows Russia to cut the oil pipeline from Georgia to Turkey which denies them oil revenue.
That’s not to say that I’m an apologist for Russia (quite the opposite!) but I think that this is what they’re aiming at. I don’t know what can be done for Georgia at this point (hightail it from Turkey to secure the pipeline?), but one thing we should do ASAP is fast-track Ukraine’s NATO MAP. That needs to be issued yesterday.
NATO did more than that - I saw estimates of serbian civilian deaths in excess of 2000 from bombings outside Kosovo.
Let’s take your assumption for a second, that it was payback (no way it could be)... Doesn’t this take away Serbia’s Russian support for keeping Kosovo? If they had the high moral ground before, saying it shouldn’t be dissolved, that’s gone now
Georgia conflict stokes energy supply concerns
Western Concern Grows Over Oil, Gas Pipes Through Georgia
If it was just about S. Ossethia, then they'd stop there... Also, if it was about S.O., then it takes away any claim Russia had about Kosovo, cause they just did the same thing (yet far worse)..
“Everyone should be allowed self determination within reason.”
Sure. Just as long as it’s MY version of reason.
When the shooting starts, moral high ground is for chumps. The Russians no doubt prefer to occupy the physical high ground, for their artillery.
That was a quote from Lech Walesa upon the recognition of by Poland of Kosovo. I think you could say that not just any breakway area of some country should be able to sign up for independence. If so, then the U.S. (with the Southwest), Spain (with Basques), Russia (with so many muslim areas), Canada (with Quebec) are all in trouble.
Do you honestly think the Russians really give a rat’s ass about Serbia and Kosovo other than geopolitical jujitsu with the US?
Sure... They’ve always been close. Historical religious ties... You’re saying they don’t?
The Russian people may support Serbs but the Russian government has its own self interests at hand.
The US will do jack shit to help Georgia.
Yeah, and Lech Walensa hero of the anti-communist and anti-Russian Polish Revolution is also "a paid Serb propagandist". (eyeroll!) Don't be ridiculous!
What Walensa saw was Bush bypassing the UN Security Council to recognize Kosovo in contradiction to international law, opened the door for Russia to do the same. Bush threw the rulebook out to recognize Kosovo, and there are no more rules -- its a free for all of survival of the fittest now. That's what Walensa saw and that what I see. That and the fact we humiliated Russia in Kosovo, which is what led to Russians picking a hardass like Putin to lead them back to having some pride in their country. Well, we got more than we bargained for with Putin.
There are usually "reasons" and "excuses", and there are generally more than one of them, Windcatcher. Between the oil issue (which paramount)and Russia pushing back as we try to surround her, this can only go downhill from here, because I doubt that Russia is going to stop until she proves to our allies in the region that we are useless as "a friend". And we cannot afford another war.
Bump! That is precisely true.
A very smart friend of mine told me sometime back that WWIII would start in “Russia's backyard” and carry itself to the Balkans and to Europe proper and that the current state of European military power could do nothing but make a phone call. Guess who they will call?
Putin knows that the US will not/cannot do much to stop this due to our commitment in Iraq. Just my opinion however, and I hope I am wrong.
The hypocrites here on FR will continue to pull the Russian commie card, its an easier substitute for critical thinking.
Just proof the state department is LOOOOOOOONG overdue for an enema.
(for those in rio linda, enemas clean out the poop)
Catch 1244?
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