If on November 4th Obama wins you will have been right (I suppose, if that is what you are driving at) and I will have been wrong. That has not come to pass. Less and less may be identifying as GOP and that’s too bad. But democrats are also dropping in past months. And consider the GOP has a President at roughly 30% or less approval. Besides the GOP has never held superior numbers.
This poll claims Obama is winning among men and yet by only 3 points overall. Patently absurd.
Cite whichever ancient Gallup poll you want. That one’s approaching two months age and taken right after Obama prsumptive nominee bounce. The latest poll and I cannot remember which it was had a big swing from plus 10 Obama to plus 10 or so McCain. It may well have been the Gallup follow-up.
Obama will certainly win hispanics but it will not be by 66-23 margin. Bush did not get 44% of hispanics. More like 40%. McCain will likely end up with 35+%.
McCain will win males and especially white males more decisively than Bush. He may do worse with females. But I imagine not that much worse.
“The latest poll and I cannot remember...”
How convenient.
I’m not trying to be right. I’m analysing the state of the race as it is right now, and McCain is not winning. He is losing, slightly, popular vote-wise and electoral vote-wise. That doesn’t mean he will lose in November. I have no idea what the polls will say in November. I don’t know what the polls will say next week. I am commenting on the state of the race NOW, which is all any of us should be doing, not that that stops some Freepers from pretending they have a crystal ball.
If the polls change and say McCain’s winning, then he’s winning. But unless and until that happens, I’m not going to play the “happy happy joy joy Mac’s gonna win it all because Americans are lying racists” game that’s suddenly so popular around here.
“This poll claims Obama is winning among men...”
This poll has McCain winning white men by 8 points. He is losing women by a larger percentage than Bush did, and women make up slightly more than half the electorate. That accounts for some of Obama’s lead. Obama is also winning blacks and hispanics of both genders, and there are more hispanic voters now than ever before. That accounts for the rest of his lead.