Posted on 08/13/2008 10:55:51 AM PDT by AirForceGeorge
New Poll: (Pew Research) Obama 46% McCain 43% (Mac closes gap over last 2 Pew polls)
(Excerpt) Read more at pewresearch.org ...
From: To:
With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has disappeared. Pew's latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a comfortable 48%-to-40% margin over McCain, which narrowed in mid-July to 47% to 42%.
Two factors appear to be at play in shifting voter sentiment. First, McCain is garnering more support from his base - including Republicans and white evangelical Protestants - than he was in June, and he also has steadily gained backing from white working class voters over this period. Secondly and more generally, the Arizona senator has made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done.
Conversely, Obama has made little progress in increasing his support among core Democrats since June - currently 83% favor him compared with 87% of Republicans who back McCain. The likely Democratic nominee is still getting relatively modest support from Hillary Clinton's former supporters: 72% of them support Obama, compared with the 88% support level that McCain receives from backers of his formal GOP rivals. Obama's strong points with voters are in being seen as the candidate with new ideas and as someone who connects well with ordinary people.
And the “likely” voters???????
I think it is becoming clear a sizable portion of Democrats will be the reason Obama loses. They’ll either not vote or flip to McCain. Some might just vote for Nader for the heck of it. But McCain will get GOP turnout to vote AGAINST Obama, while many Dems will flip or not show up.
Even if Obama gets a youth vote boost, I can’t imagine he can overcome a sizable dem defection.
Another useless poll of registered voters.
How many ordinary people get advice from Celebrities?
He's about as ordinary as a cuttlefish.
The history and origin of the center was still on their web page until about 4 years ago. - Oopsie.
LLS
Is this before or after the McCain “I speak for ALL Americans that, today, we are all Georgian”?
Obama is just plain bad news for anybody with a brain.....
Can you imagine how low Hussein’s numbers would be without all the fellating press coverage? He’d be in the 20s.
Good news, MCCAIN is gaining support from the GOP base while the Clinton’s dimwits are still somewhat skeptical of the “militiant racist muslim community activist.”
Registered voters, and it covers two weekends in August.
Plus "Olympics"! (Even if not on vacation, at the seashore or in the mountains, what red-blooded Republican male is going to talk to a pollster when Women's Beach Volleyball is on TV???)
That “useless poll” called the 2004 election for Bush 51-48. He won by 50.7 to Kerry’s 48.3%. Not bad for a useless poll.
There are not more independents than Republicans. Obama is not winning men and Catholics. Other polls have showed that. And if he were he’d lead by much more than 3 points. To call out this one looks justifiable.
“There are not more independents than Republicans.”
There were, slightly, in this sample. When households are called randomly and normed for census parameters, the respondents are who they are. And all pollsters are saying that they’re getting fewer repondents saying they are Republican than in previous years.
Rasmussen is one of the few pollsters who norms for party affiliation. He does so based on his own previous polling. Right now he says that 29.2% of the electorate claims to be independent, while 31.6% claims to be Republican. Not a huge difference.
As for the Catholic vote:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx
Obama doesn’t have to win white men. He can win by winning women, hispanics and blacks, all of which he is currently winning in greater numbers than Kerry did.
From Pew: “The presumptive Democratic nominee currently holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain among women voters (51% to 37%), a considerable improvement from May, when Obama held a much narrower 47% to 42% margin. And his lead among this group is wider than those held by John Kerry (47% to 46%) and Al Gore (50% to 41%) over George W. Bush at this stage in 2004 and 2000, respectively.”
and
“7.24.2008
2008 National Survey of Latinos: Hispanic Voter Attitudes
by Mark Hugo Lopez, Associate Director, and Susan Minushkin, Deputy Director, Pew Hispanic Center
Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008.”
John Kerry got 55% of the hispanic vote, while Pres. Bush got 44%.
If on November 4th Obama wins you will have been right (I suppose, if that is what you are driving at) and I will have been wrong. That has not come to pass. Less and less may be identifying as GOP and that’s too bad. But democrats are also dropping in past months. And consider the GOP has a President at roughly 30% or less approval. Besides the GOP has never held superior numbers.
This poll claims Obama is winning among men and yet by only 3 points overall. Patently absurd.
Cite whichever ancient Gallup poll you want. That one’s approaching two months age and taken right after Obama prsumptive nominee bounce. The latest poll and I cannot remember which it was had a big swing from plus 10 Obama to plus 10 or so McCain. It may well have been the Gallup follow-up.
Obama will certainly win hispanics but it will not be by 66-23 margin. Bush did not get 44% of hispanics. More like 40%. McCain will likely end up with 35+%.
McCain will win males and especially white males more decisively than Bush. He may do worse with females. But I imagine not that much worse.
I meant to say a big swing among Catholics. They are in our direction now. Catholics have voted for the winning candidate for many cycles now.
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