Posted on 08/13/2008 6:37:47 PM PDT by NonValueAdded
Click thread link for graphics. NWS discussion follows.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY LIMITED AND DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
2. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
(Excerpt) Read more at wunderground.com ...
a bit early to make predictions but the local news has already taken notice.
They have been saying this for a couple of days now and the spaghetti models are ALL over the place
It never hurts to have your eyes on the tropics.
Since when did the Weather Channel start tracking projected landfall of “tropical disturbances”?
They have been doing this for a while now.
I have been out of pocket for the last year or so. As a former resident of the Gulf Coast I have been a storm watcher for many, many years. I just don't remember tracking activity that far out prior to reaching hurricane status.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html
sorry, the main page: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
Wow
yeah, it’s the grain of salt you can take with journalistic weather reporting!
Mass data!
Thanks.
yah, takes a while to digest and understand the ‘drinking from a firehose,’ but peruse it enough and you get the hang of it all.
All the squares and “buttons” resemble the Navy’s page, but this one has more. :)
A little breeze out there shows signs that it could possibly turn into a tropical wave that might tbecome a tropical depression that might....The weather people are praying and burning incense to the God of Global Warming for a storm to tear up another American City so they can be Relevant again and say see! look at what Global Warming is doing to you! We told you so!
this one looks like it has a good chance of being a big u.s. hit.
Coming from you makes that even scarier. Do you have a link for the historic tracks, not that past performance is any guarantee of future results (just like the stock market).
a lot of agreement in the models now and this spaghetti isn’t clumping in a favorable way.
well, im not sure i agree with what i wrote yesterday anymore... this thing just can’t seem to get organized and it’s tracking over the islands. lots of potential this season so far, not a lot of explosive development to this point.
the models are having a really tough time with the storm since it’s having trouble developing. there is a growing likelihood it will go into the gulf of mexico.. current track guidance takes is right over the islands though, then into the u.s. quickly. if it can stay south of hispaniola, there is a very good shot it will end up as a strong storm headed possibly into the central gulf.
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