Posted on 09/01/2008 3:58:13 AM PDT by A_Niceguy_in_CA
McCain's gamble on Palin is shrewd
By Clive Crook
Published: September 1 2008 03:00
So John McCain is no longer a maverick. Here is one Democratic talking point that will need some work, and it is by no means the only one. In naming Sarah Palin - the young and only recently elected governor of Alaska, a small-town mayor before that - as his Republican running mate in the US presidential race, Mr McCain has taken an extraordinary risk. It was certainly the act of an unorthodox politician. Was it, though, the act of a reckless and stupid one? I think not.
The instant reaction among Democrats was astonishment. Quickly that gave way to outrage. James Carville, a former adviser to Bill Clinton, said he was "vexed, completely vexed" by the choice. Paul Begala, another friend of the Clintons, in almost his first sentence on the matter, sneeringly attributed Mrs Palin's poise to her time as a beauty queen. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the House of Representatives' Democratic caucus, said: "On his 72nd birthday, this is the guy's judgment of who he wants one heartbeat from the presidency? Please." The prevailing attitude was a hair's breadth from laughter at the bimbo from a state that does not count.
Will these people never learn? Let me try to walk the experts, with their many years of experience, through this thing.
The McCain campaign staff could not have scripted a more helpful response. They are anything but embarrassed by a focus on Mrs Palin's inexperience, and the more spluttering, condescending and incredulous it is, the better. The reason is obvious: Democrats' amazement at the suggestion that Mrs Palin is fit to be vice-president has disturbing implications for Barack Obama's own fitness to be president. She, after all, has had two years running a state. He has had no years running anything. Also, if experience matters as much as the Democrats now say, you want it at the top of the ticket, do you not?
Yes, Mr Obama has some limited experience of Washington. But that in fact is an electoral liability. Congress is much less popular even than George W. Bush. You cannot believe that Mr Obama is a strong and worthy candidate, as I do, and regard lack of Washington experience as a disqualifying factor for the presidency, let alone for the vice-presidency. Ronald Reagan had none. Mr Clinton had none. It did not hold them back in electoral terms and it did not stop them being a great president and a good, if flawed, president respectively.
The point is simple: for this job, character trumps experience, especially Washington experience, every time. Voters know this even if the experts do not. The public will want to get a sense of whether they like and trust Mrs Palin, and at first blush there is a lot to like. A much higher bar is believing she could cope with the pressure and responsibility that could come her way. If they are satisfied, her being an outsider from an ordinary background, untainted by Washington, will be an advantage, not a drawback. Voters are right to take this view. No training or experience can prepare you for the presidency. On any given issue, the president is surrounded by specialists who know infinitely more about the subject than he does. The ability to weigh the quality of that advice, and then act on it, is what matters.
Mr McCain's gamble could fail, no question, and if it fails it wrecks his candidacy beyond repair. If Mrs Palin turns out to be anything less than excellent - let alone Dan Quayle in drag, as somebody put it - Mr McCain stands condemned for poor judgment. Hurricane Gustav permitting, Mrs Palin will need to impress at the Republicans' convention this week. A heck of a challenge looms beyond that: the television debate between Mrs Palin and Joe Biden, Mr Obama's running mate, on October 2 will be the most riveting such event in living memory, more compelling even than the planned presidential debates - and Mr Biden may make mincemeat of her.
How can it be, then, that the risk was worth taking? I think the McCain campaign had calculated - rightly, in my view - that it was on course to lose the election. National poll numbers that showed the race tightening flattered the Republican's prospects; the state-by-state picture was less encouraging. The electoral fundamentals that have predicted 14 out of 15 postwar presidential elections (the state of the economy and the popularity of the incumbent) are hugely in Mr Obama's favour. Mr Obama is also likely to excel at getting out his vote, whereas Mr McCain is not much loved by the Republican base.
What does that Republican base think of Mrs Palin - a Christian, a social conservative, an opponent of abortion? "They are beyond ecstatic," said Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition.
If the Clintons had wrecked last week's Denver convention and split the Democratic party, things would have looked different and Mr McCain might have made a safer choice. They chose, however belatedly, to unite the party and then at the end of the week Mr Obama shone. All this harmed Mr McCain's prospects. If you think you are on track to lose, it is not crazy to gamble on redemption, so long as you think the bet has a big enough upside. This one does.
Like Monty Python's Knights Who Say Ni, it will take the Democrats a little while to stop complaining that Mr McCain stands for four more years of Mr Bush. McCain-Palin is about as far from Bush-Cheney as you could imagine. I look to Mr Obama for a more intelligent response before long. In this, as in many other ways, he seems wiser than the experts around him. He congratulated Mrs Palin on her nomination without condescension or so much as a trace of a moose joke. Once again, inexperience and good character pay.
clive.crook@gmail.com
Sarah Palin spent four years as a City Council Member for Wasilla, Alaska, six years as Mayor of Wasilla, and two years as Governor of Alaska.
FDR spent just over two years in the New York State Senate, eight years as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, and four years as Governor of New York.
Theodore Roosevelt spent some time in the New York State Assembly(?), two years as Governor of New York, two years as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, and less than one year as Vice President of the United States.
Woodrow Wilson spent eight years as President of Princeton University and two years as Governor of New Jersey.
Grover Cleveland spent two years as Sheriff of Erie County, two years as Mayor of Buffalo, and two years as Governor of New York.
Overall, I’d say that Palin’s background is comparable with that of several presidents considered highly successful, even considering that her state has a smaller population than the other two states on the list.
While Obama has been running for office for as long as Palin has been running a state, I find it hard to consider the two tasks as comparable preparation.
One final note: I will be posting this multiple times because I think it is important to get the word out that that her experience is in keeping with previous presidents. I apologize to those who are annoyed by seeing it too often.
The author is obviously for Obama (endowing him with great grace and wisdom!), but he makes the same point that I made in an earlier comment.
Choosing Palin may prove to have been a master stroke of election strategy, because it will keep alive the issue of qualifications and experience, and on that issue Obama loses, hands down.
When people start looking at experience, Palin can demonstrate that a good former small-town mayor with only two years experience as the governor of a sparsely populated, noncontiguous, grizzly-infested, wilderness state is much better qualified than Obama.
Not that Biden was ever memorable, but I don’t think that anyone will have a good reason even to remember his name with Palin in the contest.
JUNIOR SENATOR employment record = 143 days = less than 5 months.
The DNC/DBM was caught flat-footed on the Palin pick and they’re still fumbling for an attack strategy on her. Guess the dog ate their homework again...
The DNC/DBM was caught flat-footed on the Palin pick and they’re still fumbling for an attack strategy on her. Guess the dog ate their homework again...
I don’t think Senator Hairplug Blowhard, D-DE is going to know how to handle debating a smart, tough, conservative woman who won’t take any of his bluster and BS.
Sarah is eminently likeable, Biden is certainly not.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/30076181@N02/2814199887/sizes/l/
The above should put to rest any rumors that Sarah Palin was not pregnant. This photo was taken with a Fuji camera that was not available until late 2005. So it’s not from an early pregnancy...
But let the lefties keep saying Sarah wasn’t pregnant...
The ‘rat moonbats are desperate and desperate people say and do desperate things.
My youngest brother has Down’s Syndrome. My mother was 42 when he was born. I have no doubt that Sarah Palin is the mother of her child and the people who state otherwise are sick, twisted, demented, subhuman scum. That’s a perfect definition of most ‘rats.
Teddy also started the NYC Police Department and was its first commissioner. He created the department to route out corruption of the largely private police force that was then in place.
Well, it finally convinced me to vote for him in November, for what it’s worth.
I don't think Obama even really likes him. If you watch their segment on 60 Minutes, Joe's constantly barging in and stepping on what Barack is saying. O seemed particularly annoyed when Joe took over their conversation in the backstage portion of the convention.
That has been my thought that this woman is tailor made to take the office of VP and learn for her next job as President.
Please watch her interview snippets from back in March to get a feel for how sharp this gal really is.
Biden and Mincemeat?
The author of the article hopes that Biden will destroy Palin in the debates. he is thinking that Biden is experienced, lauded by the intelligentsia. Surely he will tear apart poor Palin.
Heh, heh! If Palin plays the debate game right, I think that she can win rather handily. For one thing, she has not accumulated bad points like Biden’s. Unlike Biden, she never loudly advocated breaking Iraq into three or more countries with extremely wiggly borders (and against the desires of the Iraqis). How was Biden proposing to enforce that breakup? How was he going to get agreement on the borders, and how was he going to prevent warfare by disappointed factions after the borders had been drawn?
Palin could also stick to domestic issues, where she can tear into Biden like a baracuda (her former nickname!) for his liberal positions on the economy.
These NY Times favorites like Biden have been living protected lives, sheltered by the media, fawned over by partisan book-reviewers, granted honorary degrees for nothing, &c. Intellectually, Biden is flabby. He is a lightweight.
Furthermore, we can anticipate Biden’s debate plan: attack Bush. The response is, without mentioning names, justify the major Bush policies, most of which are still favored rather strongly by the populace: tax cuts, energy sanity, national defense, the family. Palin should stick to the issues, not the personalities, with one exception: her own personality should radiate. Governor, be yourself, pace your speech (not to fast, not too slow), stick to basics, look at the camera, think for a few seconds is you need to (showing thoughtfulness). Be very, very confident, because you really deserve to come out ahead on this one.
Freedom, country, family! Stick to the basics.
Then while Obama was waving at the crowd Joe started pointing to the crowd and dancing around.
Just then as the camera panned Michelle Obama’s face and she looked like she could have killed that old White Honkey for screwing up her husbands acceptance speech.
I look to Mr Obama for a more intelligent response before long.
Well....don't hold your breath on that. The Dems are famous for beating dead horses:
In defense of Clinton: This doesn't rise to the level of impeachemt
On the Republican control of Congress: Culture of Corruption
The Bush Administration's handling of Iraq, Katrina, or anything else: Incompetence
The list is practically endless.
i watched a campaign stop the other day with Obama and Biden. I got the same impression. Biden was bloviating, and Obama could hardly force a smile. He looked bored and almost disgusted at Biden’s loud mouthed rhetoric.
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