Posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus
Obama is up by 6 in today's Rasmussen tracker, by 5 without leaners (48 - 43). It is obviuos that McCain had a very bad polling day yesterday, something like 42-53 daily sample or even worse.
Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.
I was expecting Obama to get a much bigger bounce out of his convention.
So was I. THAT is not good news for Obama.
Actually, I thought the DUI was 22 years ago, 2 years before they were married. Sarah P. has been married 20 years, as of last Friday.
Many here talk about "trends", but the trend from this Labor Day weekend is that the undecided/independent voter didn't like what they heard about Palin.
Todd Palin’s DUI was from over 20 years ago, before he even had any kids. He wasn’t drinking because he was Mr. Mom and had a pregnant teen daughter.
Sometimes I am less than impressed by my fellow Freepers who have no math ability.
First, the change in the numbers is not statistically significant. This means that yesterdays numbers could easily be today’s numbers and vice versa.
Second, if there was any change, the change was Dem voters coming home not Republicans or independents leaving. (Hint Read the internal comment)
Third, even if the change were statistically significant, o’Bama gained the votes from the undecideds while McCain may have shaved off a point. These folks are the ones who say yes to the last advertisement they saw.
Finally, the candidate always gets a bounce from the convention and it always takes a few days for it to trickle through because some don’t see or read about it till later.
Therefore, all the hand wringing over Palin, the unwed mom, the vetting process, the hurricane is total and pure fantasy.
The DUI was when he was 20?
If true, that will have NO EFFECT! That’s ridiculous. It’s more about the daughter’s pregnancy ... .
>>> Dude, do you really think you’re fooling anybody, pretending to be a concerned conservative? :-D
I am not that conservative, but I am concerned. I think Obama’s instincts are socialist, and with the big majorities in Congress he can do some serious damage.
So - no, I am not a concern troll.
Exactly! Post convention bounce, and polling over holiday weekend when general trends over weekends favor dems, and you are looking at 5 points of seperation? That’s not anything to get excited about.
After the RNC convention next tuesday or so, we’ll know where the race stands, right now all we know is Fauxbama got a very modest bounce out of his convention.
Come on friends, look at the reality of this situation. What has been happening over the latest period of the poll, how can there be a poll when no one is REALLY campaigning, candidates were more interested in taking care of our citizens in another potential disaster situation.
The RNC did not even have a chance to get off the ground, it was put in hold mode because many of us even agreed it would be totally inappropriate to party when everybody else was more interested in storm and victims.
Polls are just that, polls, during the entire thing we are talking about, no one has polled me, hummm, so I wonder how many other real voters have been polled in this?
I don’t know who they’re polling, but everywhere I went over the weekend, they were awed by Palin and can’t wait to support her. The RATS and the slimes in the MSM are only wishing.
You are right! I should have.
All I can say in my defense was that I've been distraught all morning at this daughter pregnancy story, and then it was like a double whammy when I read that.
I haven't been going out of my way to dig up dirt or read about Sarah Palin, because I am supporting her 1000% and don't really care what Todd did 20 years ago.
Also, I usually trust this particular newspaper (Trentonian) more than others, because they in the past have had a fabulous conservative-supporting editorial staff and heirarch.
All I can presume is that all the good people have abandoned the paper, and they now only have Obama worshipers.
“Check out the pregnancy thread. There are more than a few throwing stones.”
Which thread is this?
I’d like to see what others are saying about this.
Have a link?
Not good. I think McCain was eating into the lead with the experience/celebrity thing. Not sure the renewed focus on change is gonna work out until Sarah gets out there and gets a little positive press going (if thats possible).
Concern? Slightly.
But this still indicates that people are still making up their mind in the independent and moderate undecdideds.
The big story was Gustav, which reminded people of Katrina. It gave the msm the entre they needed to talk about the bad Republicans.
They will do their best to keep the attention and focus on Katrina/Gustav all through the convention. It is McCain’s camp job to get McCain to forget about Gustav and get back on message.
To this point McCain campaign has been brilliant so let’s see what kind of Convention they have....they will end strong with McCain vs. lightweight/liberal Obama and Palin...but they need a quick rousing start from Fred Thompson tonight to get the headlines back.
Bottomline: Polls are bullsit right now.
Thank you.
This is going to be a close race in the end. No matter what.
Does it bother me that McCain can never take a lead for longer than a day? Yes, but I still say Obama’s support is soft, especially with white blue collar reagan dem types.
It is a big deal for you, because the MSM told you it is a big deal.
Disagree...I really, really, disagree with your post.
For one Tod was 22 at the time of the DUI. You never did anything stupid in your 20s????
For another, you can’t be perfect, no matter how much you try. The fact taht Sarah’s daughter got pregnet at age 17 isn’t really Sarah’s fault, no matter how much you want to blaim her. And it certainly isn’t the fault of the Republican Party. And it certainly doesn’t go against everything we stand for. Her daughter is doing the right thing in marrying the boy (as is he in marrying her) and having the child instead of killing the baby (which the Dems would advocate).
Ah, that DUI was when he was 22. Are you purposely spreading misinformation? (That is, part of the perpetual Romney campaign?)
>> First, the change in the numbers is not statistically significant.
A single poll is never going to be statistically significant at a high level. But Ras and Gallup together give some reasonable indication of a short-term trend.
I suspect that the internal polling may be better/more targeted, but we are not going to see internal data - so these trackers are the best we got.
Of course, we’ll see in a week whether the RNC manages to reverse this trend.
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