Posted on 09/04/2008 5:34:39 AM PDT by library user
ST. PAUL, Minn. — Sarah Palin stands at the center of a whirlwind of controversy at the Republican National Convention — but many GOP congressional candidates think the conservative Alaska governor can help motivate base voters crucial to down ballot campaigns.
In interviews, Republican members and strategists agreed that, while questions about her qualifications to be vice president remain a potentially dangerous unknown for Palin in the presidential contest, she should be able to help turn out socially conservative voters in House races. Conservative faithful in many key districts have remained wary of John McCain’s commitment to their agenda — and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole said Wednesday that several Republican candidates have already inquired whether Palin can appear with them at joint campaign events.
The benefit could be most apparent in competitive congressional races in the South, where Republicans lost two conservative-minded seats in special elections over the last several months and have been defending an unusual number of seats in traditionally favorable territory.
“She clearly motivates the base. Republicans are pretty pumped about her candidacy — not just because of her conservative values but because of her personality and background,” said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. “She's someone they feel a connection with.”
Cole, in an interview with Politico reporters and editors, pointed specifically to the two open seats in Alabama — held by retiring Reps. Bud Cramer (D) and Terry Everett (R) — as districts where she will offer an immediate boost.
Indeed, Republican state Rep. Jay Love, running to succeed Everett, said that “conservatives are going to show up in a big way” because of the Palin pick.
Party strategists believe she will also energize GOP turnout in Louisiana, where Republicans are seeking to unseat Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux and hold onto the seat of retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery.
The NRCC, facing a substantial fundraising disadvantage, has already reserved millions of dollars in advertising time in 26 districts — 21 of which Republicans currently hold.
“There’s no question she helps you in these conservative districts, which are one of the critical battlegrounds in the election,” said Cole. “Democrats like to crow about gains in Louisiana and Mississippi. You think Barack Obama or Sarah Palin would have the most political impact in those seats?”
Palin’s ability to rally the GOP base has a downside, however. Republicans are also defending numerous seats in suburban districts where her opposition to abortion rights and the public display of her evangelical faith could be detrimental.
Her membership in the National Rifle Association and affinity for mooseburgers might not resonate as much in suburban seats held by vulnerable Republicans such as Michigan Rep. Joseph Knollenberg, Connecticut Rep. Christopher Shays and Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk.
Kirk, a leading GOP moderate, praised the Palin pick but cautioned that her socially conservative views wouldn’t play well in his affluent district in the northern Chicago suburbs.
Instead, he urged her to emphasize her record of taking on ethically tainted Republican officials in her state and challenging the controversial “bridge to nowhere” earmark.
“If she goes out and says, 'I threw out of office another corrupt, old bull Republican,' my voters will think anti-[former Illinois Gov.] George Ryan; they’ll like it. 'Then I killed the bridge to nowhere'; then they’ll hear fiscal conservative,” said Kirk. “On the other hand, if we emphasize the social issues, [the voters] won’t be there.”
Kirk is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Dan Seals, one of the best-financed candidates in the country.
House Minority Leader John A. Boehner believes Palin's addition boosts the party's prospects in blue-collar Rust Belt districts because her background mirrors that of many voters in those parts of the country.
Party strategists pointed specifically to two northeast Pennsylvania seats held by Democratic Reps. Paul E. Kanjorski and Christopher P. Carney, who are top targets for the NRCC. Obama performed poorly in these districts during the Democratic primary; both are key to Republicans’ hopes of making inroads in the Keystone State.
"If you look at the battleground demographics — middle-class, working-class people — they all can identify with her,” Boehner said. “If you listened to her speech last Friday, her maiden venture, she sounded like an ordinary person. ... This is a lady that helps with the voters we need to attract.”
Erik Paulsen, running to succeed retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.), expressed disappointment that McCain didn’t select home state Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate but said that Palin can help win over independent women voters — so-called hockey moms — in his district.
“I was initially pulling for Tim Pawlenty because he’s the hometown guy, and I’m very good friends with Tim and worked with him as governor,” said Paulsen. “But I have to tell you that when I was door knocking, a lot of women, especially the ones tuned in, were really excited about the pick.”
It will help the GOP turnout a lot more if similar picks for cabinet positions are made. I want the king RINO surrounded by Hunters.
Sarah, Fred, Duncan, and Tom could win back congress for the GOP, that is if John would let them do it.
It is not inconceivable that a McCain/Palin ticket could get the Senate back.
We have the majority of the voters, we just need to get them to take a minute off from work & raising families to GET OUT AND VOTE!
We also need to make sure the MILITARY VOTE GETS COUNTED THIS ELECTION!
If I were running for Congress I would be trying to schedule Gov Palin to campaign for me ... Going to be a long line.
This woman has long skirt-tails.
Coat tails!!! There might actually be some. I hope Sarah gets an aggressive travel schedule that puts her in plenty of Congressional districts. If I were a candidate for Congress, I’d be screaming “Get me Sarah” to the RNC right quick.
GMTA ... I like your “skirt-tails” a lot better than my coat tails. :)
The response to this speech is astonishing. The right is ultra-energized...But so is the left. Their reaction is perhaps even more hysterical than the glee from us conservatives. I don’t think I have ever seen anything like this.
But here is the question.
What about those voters in the middle who are sadly the ones that actualy win elections for one side or the other? It is their response that counts.
For my money, I think there are more people like us and Sarah out there, than there are latent liberals who are going to be stirred up by Obama.
If that is the case, then we will win. If that is wrong, then the other side wins.
WE ARE the majority!
We need to take a minute off from work & raising families and GET OUT AND VOTE in November!
and we need to make sure the MILITARY VOTE GETS COUNTED THIS ELECTION!
Can we say skirt tails instead of coat tails now?
American Thinker had a recent column about polls and the writer pointed out that historically most Americans have identified themselves as Conservative as opposed to Liberal.
If we can get those people to the polls on issues they can relate to there is no question the GOP will win big.
Remember: this last November the only reason the Democrats won is because they turned out the anti-war vote and convinced independents the war was lost and they (the Democrats) would get us out of it!
LOL. How true!
Here is the American Thinker Column:
In August 2008, Americans answered that question this way: (1) 20% of Americans considered themselves to be very conservative; (2) 40% of Americans considered themselves to be somewhat conservative; (3) 2% of Americans considered themselves to be moderate; (4) 27% of Americans considered themselves to be somewhat liberal; (5) 9% of Americans considered themselves to be very liberal; and (6) 3% of Americans did not know or refused to answer.
Sixty percent of Americans considered themselves conservative. Does this mean that most Americans do not know what “conservative” means? No: The question specifically provides an out to people who are not sure about their ideology; it provides an out to people who want to be considered “moderate.” Americans reject those choices. They overwhelmingly define themselves as “conservative.” This is a huge political story - except that it is not “new” at all. Look at the thirteen Battleground Poll results over the last six years, and how do Americans answer that very question? Here are the percentages of Americans in those polls who call themselves “conservative” since June 2002: 59% (June 2002 poll), 59% (September 2003 poll), 61% (April 2004 poll), 59% (June 2004 poll), 60% (September 2004 poll), 61% (October 2005 poll), 59% (March 2006), 61% (October 2006), 59% (January 2007), 63% (July 2007), 58% (December 2007), 63% (May 2008), and now 60% (August 2008.)
The percentage of Americans who define themselves as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal” has always been puny. In thirteen straight polls, this percentage has never been higher than 38% (June 2004) and it has usually been much lower. The gap between self-defined conservatives and self-defined liberals has been as high as thirty percentage points and as low as twenty-one percentage points. What does that translate into in electoral politics? If conservative presidential candidates simply got all the conservative votes - if virtually all moderate voters, uncommitted voters, and liberal voters went for the liberal candidate - then the conservative candidates would win a landslide bigger than Ronald Reagan in 1988. Have you ever wondered why liberals like Obama never call themselves liberals? Maybe their advisers have read the Battleground Poll internals.
Are these remarkable results skewed? This has always been the argument, but it is a hopelessly flawed argument. The poll results are incredibly consistent over time. These results are the same when President Bush has poll numbers at rock bottom and when Republicans were facing electoral disaster, like in October 2006 when 61% of Americans called themselves conservatives. The very consistency of these percentages is powerful evidence of their inherent validity.
If people did not know what conservative, liberal, and moderate meant, then the poll results to that question would bounce around over time and people would flock to define themselves as “moderate” or they would say “don’t know.” When given four different options to the conservative label, respondents overwhelmingly chose to define themselves, instead, as conservatives.
Do people feel pressured into calling themselves conservatives? Think: Hollywood regularly excoriates the image of conservatives; the mainstream media demonizes conservatives; schools teach that conservatives are narrow minded bigots; academia tries to hound independent conservative newspapers and organizations off campus. It requires much more courage to define yourself as a conservative than any other label, particularly when the banal “moderate” answer is so easily grasped. No: These answers to Question D3 are real, profound, and great.
more at:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/08/the_biggest_missing_story_in_p.html
I think the Senate's realistically out of reach. But in this anti-incumbent (NOT anti-GOP) environment, the Pubbies can certainly regain some House seats. Yeah, they're swimming upstream. But salmon do it all the time! :-)
“Sarah Palin stands at the center of a whirlwind of controversy at the Republican National Convention”
No she doesn’t, but “news sources” like the Politico are trying to put her in that position.
Sarah alone can not turn around the GOP Rinos. About all she can do is surround herself with true conservatives and if that starts a ripple, then so much the better.
Could steal Colorado, Louisanna and hold on to New Mexico. Jindal and Palin could get rid of little Mary.
That will not happen. You don’t announce cabinet members before winning the election. There might be big hints, i.e. Bush saying it will be great working with Colin Powell over and over in 2000, but no hard assignments.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if all of this works to our advantage and sitting Republicans/RINOs FINALLY see the light and think, “Wow! I won’t be re-elected unless I work toward the actual wants and needs of my constituency and behave like a Republican!”
She’s setting the bar VERY high; I hope EVERY politician from here on out is compared to Mrs. Palin.
They’ll consider a piece of legislation and go, “What would Sarah do?”
I love it. :)
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