Posted on 09/06/2008 6:37:41 AM PDT by CatOwner
Rasmussen is unchanged from yesterday, and now includes two days of Palin's speech and one day of McCain's speech. Either Wednesday was a really bad polling day for McCain, or we are overestimating the bounce, if any, that McCain-Palin got.
Going into the weekend after the DNC Obama had zero bounce. The polls reflecting a bounce did not show until the following Tuesday, when if my magic he was up 8 or 9 points.
We have multiple variables at work confounding the results right now. I think we need to wait for the numbers released next Thursday and Friday -- but the trend is our friend.
It may be telling that this morning Fox news had a segment on copying the Sarah Palin hairstyle and there was a news report of a run on Sarah Palin eyeglass frames.
These polls are loony! One day he is up by 9 points with a 50% share, and of course, the MSM puts it on every news program and it is the top story. Now it is a dead heat again a short week or two later.
Polls are worthless. We all know it will come down to Electoral votes in about 6-8 key states.
JoMa
The real question is...
What are the poll numbers in states with lots of Hunters and Hockey Moms? States like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Colorado?
And, therefore, very suspicious.
If I understand the methodology, Rassmussen polls over 3 days. The Wednesday polling was almost all completed before Palin’s speech. The Thursday polling before McCain’s speech, which we now know had more viewers than Obama’s. So we have 2 days of Palin and one of McCain. It also usually takes a couple more days for it all to sink in. I’m sure Rasmussen is correct when he says wait till next week.
I hope a serious Republican Convention bounce shows up next week, but who knows. I wonder, though, if even a fairly honest pollster like Rasmussen will know how to handle a Palin Storm (if it is occurring, and I hope it is). Will he be underestimating the number of small-town voters who will now actually vote or the number of voters who will now call themselves Republicans? Maybe there is no Palin Storm, and maybe it will end quickly if it now exists; but if it does exist, pollsters may have a rather hard time figuring out how to massage their raw data to account for it. Jay Cost, where are you?
Bingo. This election is about four or five states---OH, FL, CO, NV, and perhaps VA and NH. McCain just caught a HUGE break here in OH last week when the "sick leave" initiative was taken off the ballot. That was dead-sure to bring out thousands more Dem voters who would, as a side issue, vote for Obama. But every one of these races is razor thin, and in most of these states, the latest poll has Obama ahead.
McCain can't and won't get above 300 EV in the most unlikely remote scenario, nor will Obama.
“Fact is Obama is only up 46 to 45, before McCain’s bounce.”
No. This poll has a 2% margin of error, to a 95% confidence level. Therefore “46 to 45” could really be anywhere between “44 to 47” to “48 to 43”. In other words, McCain could really be ahead now. There’s a 5% chance the spread could be even greater in either direction.
Including leaners, the spread could be anywhere from “47 to 48” to “51 to 44”. So, even including leaners, McCain could be ahead also. As above, there’s a 5% chance the spread is greater.
It’s important to remember that polls do not represent “exact” anything. They are most useful in establishing trends. These polls should be referred to as a “statistical tie”, and are VERY encouraging for McCain/Palin.
McCain/Palin ‘08!
It was less “bradley,” than it was more “Operation Chaos” here in OH.
Why? That makes no sense.
SurveyUSA or RealClearPolitics has Obama way ahead in MN and WI; barely ahead in OH (four of the last six had McCain up, but the last two have Obama up); Obama's up solidly in PA and IA. Only in CO has McCain led in the most recent poll.
If I were McCain I wouldn't spend a cent in MI, PA, WI, IA and put everything on OH, FL, VA, CO, NV and NH. That's the election. It won't get much better than 270-274 EVs.
Scott Rasmussen is a Republican, for whatever it's worth. This chorus of people attacking pollsters when we don't like the results of their poll is tiresome. 48 hours ago, CBS came out with a poll extremely favorable to McCain. Does that mean CBS News is in McCain's pocket? Give me a break.
I had said last week when we saw Obama jump out to a small lead (8 pts) that there was no need to panic, McCain would get his bounce. He is getting it. It will end around Monday with mccain/PALIN over Osama bin Biden by around 2% in most polls.
Yes, but how old are those polls?
If they were pre-Palin, you can pretty much throw them out.
She’s a game changer.
I’m used to polls showing a wide disparity before elections and then tightening up to where the Republican wins within the margin of error during the only real check that is done concerning accuracy. They also appear to adjust their numbers based on other “independently done” polls. That propensity makes me very cynical concerning polling.
We won’t see the full effects until Wednesday.
It’s a 3 day rolling average and weekends are tough on Republicans.
Honestly, I think it’ll take a “Bunny suit” type of gaffe (or a scandal that the press *actually* reports) on the part of O-blah-blah Hussein to put the final nail in his coffin.
Again, I remind you that Scott Rasmussen is a conservative Republican. What would be his motive for cheating at a poll?
Scott Rasmussen is an evangelical Christian but also was co-founder of ESPN, also for what it's worth. His polling is pretty mechanical, but he still had Obama overpolling in the New Hampshire primary by 10 just like everyone else.
I don't believe the CBS poll, or the Zogby giving the advantage to McCain, either. The problem isn't the results, it's their methodology and historical record. Like Scott Rasmussen and Carl Rove have been saying -- we need to wait until we see the polling from late next week to see where we stand.
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