Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.
Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data:
Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
West Caribbean
South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike
KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
definitley looks like a NW move there.
If I had to guess I would say it is a roll of the dice now.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 27
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2008
the latest Air Force reconnaissance mission indicates that Ike has
weakened a little. The plane found a peak SFMR of 91 kt and 107 kt
at flight level. An eyewall dropsonde suggested surface winds
around 100 kt but the drop may not have sampled the highest winds.
While these observations would normally support a slightly lower
intensity...the central pressure fell to 945 mb...and the initial
intensity is lowered only to 105 kt. A recent series of microwave
passes and reports from the reconnaissance aircraft confirm that an
outer eyewall has formed...but it is doubtful that the eyewall
replacement cycle will complete prior to Ike reaching Cuba.
Accordingly...significant strengthening is not expected during the
next 12 hours. Once inland over Cuba...weakening is expected but
the amount of weakening will depend largely on how long the center
stays over land. The latest official forecast keeps Ike inland for
approximately 24-36 hours so significant weakening is shown.
However...only a small deviation to the north or the south could
result in the center of Ike moving back over water sooner. Ike is
forecast to reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 2 days
where the waters are warm and the shear is forecast to be low.
Ike’s potential for restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico will
depend on its structure once it emerges from Cuba.
Ike has been wobbling westward during the last several hours with an
initial motion estimate of 270/12. A turn toward the west-
northwest is expected tonight or Monday as the subtropical ridge to
its north weakens. In 2-3 days...a shortwave trough is forecast to
move through the eastern United States causing additional weakening
of the ridge and a reduction in Ike’s forward speed. Most of the
dynamical models now show the trough bypassing Ike to the
north with a shortwave ridge building in its wake. This pattern
would result in a slight left turn toward the west-northwest at days
4 and 5. Track models continue to trend southward and the official
forecast is nudged a little to the left. However...one should not
focus too much on small changes in the track...and it is much too
early to anticipate which areas along the Gulf Coast could be
impacted by this system.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 07/2100z 21.1n 74.6w 105 kt
12hr VT 08/0600z 21.2n 76.5w 100 kt...inland
24hr VT 08/1800z 21.7n 78.8w 85 kt...inland
36hr VT 09/0600z 22.4n 80.8w 70 kt...inland
48hr VT 09/1800z 23.2n 82.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 10/1800z 24.5n 85.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 11/1800z 26.0n 88.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 12/1800z 27.0n 91.0w 100 kt
$$
forecaster Rhome/Beven
Must wait to see this track persist for a couple hours .. as of now, it is merely suggestive of a swing more northerly.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2008
...Ike weakens a little as it approaches eastern Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins...
Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...and for the central Bahamas including Cat Island...the
Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the province of Matanzas. A Hurricane
Warning is now in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo...
Santiago de Cuba... Holguin...Las Tunas and Granma...Camaguey...
Ciego de Avila....Villa Clara...Sancti Spiritus...Cienfuegos...and
Matanzas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Cuban provinces
of la Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef
southward...including the Dry Tortugas.
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect
for Andros Island in the Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch also remains
in effect for Andros Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Northern
Peninsula of Haiti from the northern boarder with the Dominican
Republic to gonaives.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a
tropical storm watch for that island.
All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...and South
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this potentially
dangerous hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.1 north...longitude 74.6 west or about 90 miles...145 km
...West of Great Inagua Island and about 75 miles...120 km...
north-northeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Ike is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A west to
west-northwest motion is expected tonight and Monday. On this
track...the core of the hurricane will continue to move away from
the southeastern Bahamas and over or near eastern Cuba tonight and
tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph...195
km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is a category three hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible
tonight but Ike is expected to remain a major hurricane as it
approaches eastern Cuba. Ike is expected to weaken as it moves
over eastern and central Cuba on Monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145
miles...230 km.
The minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft
was 945 mb...27.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
within the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches
over eastern and central Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up
to 15 inches possible. These rains are likely to cause life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
The southern Bahamas could see rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
from Ike. Portions of Hispaniola could receive additional amounts
of 3 to 5 inches. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
possible over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Florida Keys.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...21.1 N...74.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.
Minimum central pressure...945 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Rhome/Beven
The two morons who are currently Mayors evacuate the keys just so they can get face time.
so if their lips are moving you know nothing is substantiated by fact
.
Boy O Boy. Thanks for the input...that certainly is not the impression from the news. Good luck to you all.
Well NWC sure is not paying any attention to what we’ve been noting here.
Thanks for the ping.
I see so many different paths from the different agencies that predict probable landfall. Can you tell me which have been most accurate this season? (If you know).
Storm surge estimates I have seen for the Lower Keys are 9-13 feet for a direct hit from a CAT 3. Anything more than a CAT 3, well, it ain’t pretty. If that CAT 3 scenario plays out, which I hope is unlikely, they are saying we get 2 surges, one first from the south and then another after the storm passes to the north. Backside surge expected to be +2 feet above front side surge.
I’m still hanging in here, but if this thing does not bury itself into Cuba sometime by 11pm, like the track has been suggesting, I’m going to start seriously rethinking things.
Hurricane Georges in 1998 was a CAT 2 I recall as it passed just south of me on Sugarloaf. Cudjoe Bay, on the oceanside, next island up US 1 from me had a 9 foot surge. I was building a project oceanfront on Cudjoe Bay at the time, had lots of $$$ worth of construction material that I banded and took care of before the storm, I was thinking wind, not surge. I found banded pallets of materials 1.75 miles to the north a few days later, where it came to rest right south of the Fat Albert Blimp Site on Cudjoe.
Please God, take Ike through Cuba and beat it down to a CAT 1.
It appears as though Ike will miss us in Florida, thank God, but the Keys will get hit and from there who knows. Take care all of you in the path. Looks like a bad one.
It appears as though Ike will miss us in Florida, thank God, but the Keys will get hit and from there who knows. Take care all of you in the path. Looks like a bad one.
True Dat,,,maybe just a big wobble,,,
A few more updates on the sat-pics will tell the tail...
From the Advisory: On this track...the core of the hurricane will continue to move away from the southeastern Bahamas and over or near eastern Cuba tonight and tomorrow.
...and from the discussion: A turn toward the west- northwest is expected tonight or Monday as the subtropical ridge to its north weakens.
The latest forecast track shows Ike emerging from Cuba due S of Key West Tuesday by midday.
What is an outer eye wall and what is its significance?
The better model for this storm to date has been GFDL. However, a single forecast model should *never* be used to make decisions to protect life and property. If any one model were always correct, there wouldn't be so many of them out there.
Here is a handy link for the future thread body. It's http://www.usnpl.com/, the US Newspapers list. Now newspapers aren't very handy when it comes to real time weather but what is handy about the list is that after you select the state, there is a link on the left to get a list of TV stations in that state. You can then click through to a station's Web site and hopefully find their live feed.
FWIW : NOAA just moved the forecast-point from the coast
of Cuba up to 21 N ,,,
The south side of the eye mite even clip it !
Q: What is eyewall replacement?
A: It is a process that major hurricanes, especially powerful major hurricanes undertake when they try to reorganize, and get stronger. An outer eyewall develops around the original eyewall, and begins to sap the inner eyewall of its intensity and moisture, and thus become the dominant eyewall.
From http://www.hurricaneville.com/faq.html
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