New Gallup Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama (54%-44% among Likely Voters)

Gallup | 9/7/08 | Susan Page,

[LdSentinal]

Can't link directly.

[madameguinot]

He’s more likeable than Kerry but is he a good debater? We shall see. I don’t know if McCain can debate either but he has shown that his breadth of knowledge on any domestic or foreign policy topic is far greater than His Nibs.

[AirForceGeorge]

I tend to agree. Remember what happened when Hillary lost her cloak of invincibility? The whole house came tumbling down.

I am certain a fair number of fence sitters saw the media portrayed massive popularity of Obama and it made them lean towards him. He was so cool, hip, loved, historic. Now when they hear he is losing he loses that angle.

With Palin-mania Obama who has been over-exposed for almost 2 years now looks old and boring. Our friends in the MSM have helped us again besides their greatest efforts. Not only have they over-hyped Obama and tired people on him but they have also managed to keep Obama and his supporters so out of touch with reality and in their little bubble that they don't know what's happening.

[JohnnyZ]

But I don’t understand only 2% undecided? 54 + 44 = 98%. Other polls have consistently showed 8-10% undecided.

The level of undecideds is highly dependent on the question wording and poll methodology.

[Steve Van Doorn]

Rush makes a good point.

[matthew fuller]

"1. The Democrats have registered many new voters during their primary who will not show up in these polls."

Those first six feet up are a BITCH!

[John Robie]

McCain will shred him in a debate. He is a much better debater than the President.

[jerry557]

I think he’s more dangerous that Kerry. Especially if he feels like he’s in trouble.

From what I’ve seen of Obama is that in a fair forum and venue, he stinks without a teleprompter. He will say stupid things. But they skewed the questions his way in the Democratic debates with Hillary....so McCain needs to keep an eye out for those kind of tricks.

Remember if liberals feel they are cornered....they will become aggressive and ruthless. And they will have no hesitation to fix the debates. Especially in this election. If they lose in November, heads are going to roll.

[top 2 toe red]

Bob Barr could be on the ballot by himself and a fat lot of good, it’d do him!

[tallyhoe]

I heard Larry Saboato on Fox this morning and he was saying that he heard from some of his friends in the polling services that McCain/Palin were going to get a large bump from their convention and outside of the margin of error!

[matthew fuller]

"Also don't discount the impact of the video story on Cindy McCain that preceded her speech. It was fantastic ! She will make a great First Lady. "

A big AMEN to that! She has a great life story, and who can dislike a beautiful rich blonde that owns one of the biggest Budwieser distributorships in the west?

[John Robie]

I am afraid you may be correct. I live in an upper middle class neighborhood that is surrounded by public housing.

[GnuHere]

Hahahaha!

[jerry557]

According to the Texas Secretary of State, both the Republicans and Democrats filed paperwork before the deadline and then filed amendments to the paperwork after their conventions.

If you look at the Texas official website. Both McCain and Obama are on the official ballot. Now Barr may sue and claim otherwise. But good luck with that in the Texas courts.
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/candidates/general/2008gensbs.shtml

[Uncle Miltie]

PALIN!!!

[ExTexasRedhead]

You can bet the DNC is hiring thousands of grave diggers. The dead will be voting in mass!!! The GOP needs to organize volunteers to monitor voter fraud, have it reported, and prosecuted. They need to run national TV ads providing the American people with ways to report the fraud.

[ThomasPaine2000]

Did you mean “OLSON”//,, I’am from TX-2, Ted Poe, so I am happy..

[MillardFillmore]

Incorrect-
McCain got a HUGE Bounce 17 points compared to previous LV Gallup Poll.

many other older LV polls show Obama ahead

some past LV polls from RCP
USAT/Gallup LV (09/05-09/07) 54-44 M+10 (the one we’re discussing)
USAT/Gallup LV (8/30 - 8/31) 43-50 O+7 (previous Gallup LV poll)
ABC/Wash Post LV (8/19 - 8/22) 45-49 O+4
Quinnipiac LV (8/12 - 8/17) 41-46 O+5

Only one previous LV poll from 8/14 to 8/16 from unreliable Zogby has shown a MCC lead of greater than +1

Having said that best to be humble, work hard and use the +4 RV lead.

[ari-freedom]

mccain loves it when people ask him questions during townhall meetings.

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by: GeeMoney

"Well this good news and I’m sure it’s pretty accurate. Most pollsters called ‘04 pretty good (most polls had Bush up by 2%-3% on election eve)."

Here are the actual 2004 Bush vs Kerry polling numbers to compare to the actual election results. Not that many were 'close'... For final results before the election for national 'popular vote' numbers (not electoral votes) check out the CBS poll, they clean up their act in the last two polls and are fairly consistant every four years.

The Republican numbers are up because of the Convention bounce, do not get too excited. The good thing about the Democrats holding their convention after the Olympics instead of before is that their Convention bounce was very short-lived because of the Palin announcement and speech.

Presidential Polling Data

Nine Media Polling Organizations
Year 2004
vs
Actual Election Results

dvwjr			Revision Date:
			3/2/2006
United States Presidential Election 2004		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
122,293,548 Actual Voters
		NEP Calculated (MoE ±0.85%)				Actual Election Results
November 2, 2004		37.15%	37.34%	25.51%	13,067 V	50.73%	48.27%	0.38%	0.62%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Bush	93.09%	10.51%	48.49%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Kerry	6.46%	89.04%	49.49%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Nader	0.00%	0.00%	1.49%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Other	0.45%	0.45%	0.53%
	Total	100%	100%	100%
ABCNews/Washington Post Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Neither	Wont vote	No opinion
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
June 17-20, 2004	100.0%	29.8%	37.5%	32.7%	1,015 RV	43.74%	48.47%	5.81%	0.30%	0.69%	0.39%	0.59%
July 22-25, 2004	100.0%	33.1%	34.4%	32.5%	974 RV	47.51%	46.49%	2.52%	0.18%	1.49%	0.49%	1.32%
July 30- August 1, 2004	100.0%	28.6%	38.7%	32.7%	940 RV	44.26%	49.57%	2.13%	0.32%	1.28%	0.53%	1.91%
August 26-29, 2004	100.0%	32.9%	31.7%	35.3%	945 RV	48.47%	46.77%	1.59%	0.11%	0.95%	0.42%	1.69%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	30.5%	34.3%	952 RV	50.21%	43.59%	2.00%	0.42%	1.79%	0.32%	1.68%
September 23-26, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.6%	31.4%	969 RV	50.57%	43.55%	1.96%	0.72%	0.93%	0.41%	1.86%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	36.3%	31.9%	31.8%	1,169 LV	51.25%	46.18%	0.59%	0.24%	0.67%	0.33%	0.73%
Switch to daily tracking poll
ARG Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
July 1-3, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	38.8%	26.0%	773 RV	44.24%	47.35%	2.59%	5.82%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.1%	37.1%	27.8%	776 RV	44.97%	48.58%	2.06%	4.38%
August 30-September 1, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,014 RV	44.67%	45.96%	2.96%	6.41%
October 2-3, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	37.9%	27.3%	1,005 RV	43.88%	47.26%	2.09%	6.77%
Final - October 28-30, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	39.6%	25.1%	1,500 RV	47.60%	48.27%	1.20%	2.93%
CBS News Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote	Depends	Do not know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
May 20-23, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	34.0%	37.0%	883 RV	40.54%	46.55%	5.21%	0.68%	1.59%	0.57%	4.87%
July 11-15, 2004	100.0%	27.3%	34.2%	38.5%	789 RV	41.57%	45.25%	5.20%	0.38%	1.27%	1.52%	4.82%
July 30 - August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	37.5%	27.1%	837 RV	42.51%	48.39%	2.99%	0.01%	0.37%	1.19%	4.54%
August 15-18, 20004	100.0%	36.4%	39.6%	24.0%	792 RV	45.08%	46.46%	1.01%	0.13%	0.63%	1.01%	5.68%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	37.7%	27.9%	889 RV	48.71%	42.41%	1.35%	0.34%	0.67%	1.01%	5.51%
September 12-16, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.2%	28.0%	1,048 RV	49.90%	40.55%	2.96%	0.38%	1.15%	1.05%	4.01%
September 20-22, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	37.0%	27.1%	898 RV	49.44%	41.31%	2.23%	0.33%	1.34%	1.00%	4.34%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	31.8%	35.8%	32.3%	773 RV	47.22%	46.96%	1.55%	0.00%	0.52%	0.65%	3.10%
October 9-11, 2004	100.0%	32.7%	34.2%	33.1%	933 RV	48.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 9-11, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	41.1%	19.9%	693 LV	47.62%	45.45%	1.59%	0.14%	0.72%	1.01%	3.46%
October 14-17, 2004	100.0%	32.5%	35.4%	32.1%	851 RV	45.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 14-17, 2004	100.0%	38.4%	41.2%	20.4%	565 LV	47.43%	45.31%	2.12%	0.00%	0.88%	0.53%	3.72%
Final - October 28-30, 2004	100.0%	33.2%	33.3%	33.6%	824 RV	49.00%	46.00%	1.00%	1.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.00%
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
July 20-21, 2004	100.0%	33.6%	38.6%	27.9%	900 RV	43.00%	42.44%	3.56%	10.44%	0.56%
August 3-4, 2004	100.0%	33.9%	38.0%	28.1%	900 RV	42.00%	46.00%	2.44%	8.89%	0.67%
August 24-25, 2004	100.0%	33.8%	36.2%	30.0%	1,000 LV	42.51%	43.83%	3.68%	9.51%	0.46%
September 7-8, 2004	100.0%	33.9%	37.5%	28.6%	1,000 LV	46.60%	42.80%	2.90%	7.30%	0.40%
September 21-22, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	37.7%	27.3%	1,000 LV	45.60%	41.80%	1.30%	11.10%	0.20%
October 3-4, 2004	100.0%	31.5%	39.6%	28.9%	1,000 LV	47.49%	45.00%	1.49%	5.51%	0.51%
October 17-18, 2004	100.0%	35.8%	36.6%	27.6%	1,000 LV	49.00%	42.00%	2.40%	6.60%	0.00%
October 27-28, 2004	100.0%	37.4%	35.1%	27.5%	1,200 LV	49.75%	44.75%	0.42%	5.08%	0.00%
Tracking - October 28-29, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	38.1%	27.2%	1,200 LV	47.42%	45.33%	0.58%	6.67%	0.00%
Tracking - October 29-30, 2004	100.0%	36.7%	36.3%	26.9%	1,200 LV	46.00%	46.25%	1.17%	6.58%	0.00%
Gallup Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
May 7-9, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	34.1%	33.8%	877 RV	41.39%	46.41%	7.41%	4.79%
May 21-23, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	37.3%	28.0%	883 RV	44.05%	46.43%	5.55%	3.96%
June 3-6, 2004	100.0%	35.5%	37.7%	26.8%	896 RV	42.41%	45.42%	7.37%	4.80%
June 21-23, 2004	100.0%	34.1%	37.6%	28.2%	882 RV	44.90%	46.49%	5.56%	3.06%
July 8-11, 2004	100.0%	36.7%	37.4%	25.9%	891 RV	42.20%	49.61%	3.82%	4.38%
July 19-21, 2004	100.0%	40.5%	36.3%	23.1%	878 RV	43.39%	47.38%	4.90%	4.33%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	39.2%	38.3%	22.5%	916 RV	48.14%	46.94%	2.40%	2.51%
August 9-11, 2004	100.0%	38.6%	36.5%	25.0%	897 RV	45.71%	45.04%	5.13%	4.12%
August 23-25, 2004	100.0%	37.6%	33.9%	28.5%	876 RV	46.35%	46.23%	3.65%	3.77%
September 3-5, 2004	100.0%	38.2%	35.5%	26.2%	926 RV	48.49%	45.79%	3.56%	2.16%
September 13-15, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.0%	28.1%	935 RV	50.00%	42.00%	4.00%	4.00%
September 24-26, 2004	100.0%	39.8%	32.2%	28.0%	926 RV	52.59%	42.44%	3.13%	1.84%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	36.9%	36.6%	26.4%	934 RV	48.61%	47.43%	1.39%	2.57%
October 9-10, 2004	100.0%	36.5%	35.3%	28.3%	941 RV	47.61%	47.72%	1.38%	3.29%
October 14-16, 2004	100.0%	36.9%	34.7%	28.3%	942 RV	48.62%	46.07%	1.38%	3.93%
October 22-24, 2004	100.0%	36.2%	35.5%	28.3%	1,461 RV	49.14%	46.61%	0.96%	3.29%
Final - October 29-31, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,866 RV	46.14%	48.45%	0.80%	4.61%
Los Angeles Times Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other/UDec	Dont Know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
June 5-8, 2004	100.0%	25.9%	38.0%	36.1%	1,230 RV	42.49%	48.35%	4.14%	0.51%	4.51%
July 17-21, 2004	100.0%	31.7%	40.9%	27.3%	1,529 RV	43.56%	46.37%	3.07%	0.39%	6.61%
August 21-24, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	41.0%	27.0%	1,352 RV	46.60%	44.08%	3.40%	0.59%	5.33%
September 25-28, 2004	100.0%	36.5%	35.8%	27.6%	1,100 LV	50.55%	45.09%	2.36%	0.00%	2.00%
Final - October 21-24, 2004	100.0%	33.3%	38.9%	27.8%	881 LV	48.47%	48.24%	0.68%	0.00%	2.61%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Depends	None/Other	Not Sure
All polls Registered Voters
June 25-28, 2004	100.0%	38.0%	40.0%	22.0%	1,025 RV	45.00%	44.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%
July 19-21, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	40.0%	21.0%	813 RV	47.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	5.00%
August 23-25, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	38.0%	23.0%	806 RV	47.00%	45.00%	3.00%	0.00%	1.00%	4.00%
September 17-19, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	40.0%	21.0%	1,006 RV	48.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 16-18, 2004	100.0%	37.0%	41.0%	22.0%	1,004 RV	48.00%	46.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	3.00%
Final - October 29-31, 2004	100.0%	37.0%	38.0%	25.0%	1,014 LV	48.00%	47.00%	1.00%	0.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by NBC/WSJ
Newsweek/PSRAI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
March 18-19, 2004	100.0%	35.9%	35.1%	29.0%	838 RV	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.61%
May 13-14, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	36.9%	30.9%	832 RV	42.31%	43.27%	5.41%	9.01%
July 8-9, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	35.6%	30.0%	1,001 RV	44.36%	47.35%	2.70%	5.59%
July 29-30, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	38.5%	32.5%	1,010 RV	41.78%	49.41%	3.07%	5.74%
September 2-3, 2004	100.0%	35.8%	31.5%	32.6%	1,008 RV	52.38%	40.58%	3.37%	3.67%
September 9-10, 2004	100.0%	38.0%	31.4%	30.6%	1,003 RV	49.45%	42.67%	2.19%	5.68%
September 30 - October 2, 2004	100.0%	33.3%	36.9%	29.8%	1,013 RV	45.01%	46.59%	1.97%	6.42%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	36.2%	34.2%	29.7%	1,004 RV	48.31%	46.02%	1.10%	4.58%
October 21-22, 2004	100.0%	35.4%	35.2%	29.5%	1,008 RV	46.15%	46.49%	1.85%	5.51%
Final - October 27-29, 2004	100.0%	34.0%	36.2%	29.8%	1,005 RV	47.86%	44.48%	1.49%	6.17%
Time/SRBI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Do not know	Refused
All polls Registered and/or Likely Voters
July 20-22, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059 RV	43.00%	46.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
August 3-5, 2004	100.0%	28.0%	36.0%	36.0%	1,001 RV	41.00%	45.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
August 24-26, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	32.0%	35.0%	1,026 RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	0.00%	5.00%	2.00%
August 31-September 2, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	32.0%	32.0%	1,128 RV	49.00%	39.00%	5.00%	0.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September 7-9, 2004	100.0%	31.0%	32.0%	37.0%	1,013 RV	50.00%	39.00%	4.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
September 21-23, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	30.0%	34.0%	1,014 RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September 21-23, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	31.0%	33.0%	877 LV	48.00%	42.00%	5.00%	0.00%	3.00%	2.00%
October 6-7, 2004	100.0%	31.0%	36.0%	33.0%	1,024 RV	44.00%	43.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4.00%	3.00%
October 6-7, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	36.0%	32.0%	886 LV	45.00%	45.00%	3.00%	1.00%	3.00%	3.00%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	37.0%	31.0%	1,000 RV	46.00%	46.00%	4.00%	0.00%	3.00%	1.00%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	36.0%	29.0%	865 LV	48.00%	46.00%	3.00%	0.00%	3.00%	0.00%
October 19-21, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059 RV	50.00%	43.00%	4.00%	0.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Final - October 19-21, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	35.0%	30.0%	803 LV	51.00%	46.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	0.00%
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by TIME/SRBI

Hope this helps,

dvwjr

[ari-freedom]

the most important gaffe is not the muslim one. It’s the O’reilly clip as that demoralizes the anti-war left who will see him as a fool for being set up by Bill O.

You have to destroy the enthusiasm of his core base in addition to raising the enthusiasm of your own.