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Rassmussen Poll shows 1% lead for McCain 47 to 46
Rassmussen ^

Posted on 09/08/2008 6:39:37 AM PDT by sunmars

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obama
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).

McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women

1 posted on 09/08/2008 6:39:37 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars
Rasmussen has the race tighter than the other polls. Does this have to do with using data from the previous three months?
2 posted on 09/08/2008 6:40:51 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: sunmars

This is significant

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that they are certain they will cast their ballot for McCain and will not change their mind before November. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about Obama. Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55%


3 posted on 09/08/2008 6:41:07 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

This looks like a 1% gain from yesterday. I believe the poll was tied at 46 yesterday, and tied at 48% with leaners included.


4 posted on 09/08/2008 6:41:45 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: sunmars

Well I was hoping for something better from Rasmussen who I trust more than Gallup.


5 posted on 09/08/2008 6:42:13 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: sunmars

Unless something DRASTIC happens, this race is over an Obama knows it, that’s why he’s going negative this early.


6 posted on 09/08/2008 6:42:26 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: sunmars

Rassmussen is telling us something here though cryptically.

For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.


7 posted on 09/08/2008 6:42:26 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

Between “democrats always poll 5-8 points higher than election results” and the Wilder effect,

we could be looking at a 10-12 point lead when the polls show a “dead heat”.

Don’t forget to lie to exit pollsters!


8 posted on 09/08/2008 6:42:48 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: sunmars

McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women”

But...but....the NOW hags kept telling us that putting Palin won’t help with women, b/c that is just a gimmick...


9 posted on 09/08/2008 6:44:42 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: sunmars

CNN and MSNBC still showing polls with Obama leading by 2...


10 posted on 09/08/2008 6:45:51 AM PDT by johnny7 ("Duck I says... ")
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To: MrB

This is Rass’s polling %’s

For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated

So if he’s polling 7.8% more Dems, then McCain is in great shape, as he’s polling way more Independents than Bambi.


11 posted on 09/08/2008 6:46:33 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: ConservativeDude

I still cannot believe McCain leads by only 4% with males.
YES, I know minority men, and young men who are living in the bigger cities vote DEM, but that’s nothing new, and Bush had a double digit lead with men.
I think something is off with that 4%.


12 posted on 09/08/2008 6:47:17 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: sunmars

Perhaps an insignificant lead, but not trailing any more.

Who knows, Sarah Palin and her running mate might just win this thing. Right now, I think John is just along for the ride, trying to keep pace.


13 posted on 09/08/2008 6:47:58 AM PDT by alloysteel (Sarah has got spunk. And that is a GOOD thing.)
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To: CatOwner

I would say yes. He uses a 90 day rolling average to determine his ratio of Dem/Rep/Ind voters. It’s as fair a system as anything else that I’ve seen. Many disagree.

If there is actually much more support for McCain, it doesn’t hurt to take a worst-case view by relying on Rasmussen’s less volatile poll. It’s just makes Republicans work harder.


14 posted on 09/08/2008 6:48:00 AM PDT by xzins (ZerObama: zero executive, military, or international experience)
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To: sunmars

actually if this is the case, i think McCain is pulling in approx imately 2/3’ds of indies.


15 posted on 09/08/2008 6:48:25 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: johnny7
CNN and MSNBC still showing polls with Obama leading by 2...

It's called whistling past the graveyard.

16 posted on 09/08/2008 6:48:42 AM PDT by Trust but Verify
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To: 1Old Pro
"...this race is over an Obama knows it...

I share your enthusiam. BUT..., unlike the "war is over" declaration and then waiting (almost losing it) 4 years to "mop up" with a surge, this time (in this war) we ENGAGE IN A SURGE OF OUR OWN "NOW" and "MOP UP" on NOV 4th.

17 posted on 09/08/2008 6:49:16 AM PDT by The Bronze Titan
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To: The Bronze Titan

An anti-0bama landslide

will be “PROOF”

that America is still racist.


18 posted on 09/08/2008 6:51:12 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: sunmars

Like the MSM, polls lean towards the Libs so do your own checking. McCain and Palin are for and look like America and = change while Obama and Biden represent and look like Washington insiders and that = no change.


19 posted on 09/08/2008 6:51:18 AM PDT by yoe ( Socialism/Marxism with Obama/Michelle - another twofer!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Rasmussen was on Hannity last week saying don’t expect to see a convention bump materialize in his polling until Tuesday or Wednesday...if at all.


20 posted on 09/08/2008 6:51:56 AM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: sunmars

21 posted on 09/08/2008 6:53:25 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (I've left Cynical City... bound for Jaded.)
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To: sunmars
For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated

In my uninformed, uneducated opinion, we will find that the percentage of Dims and Republicans actually voting will be much closer than this.

Turnout, baby, turnout!

22 posted on 09/08/2008 6:55:26 AM PDT by savedbygrace (SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
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To: xzins
What the 90 day rolling average for party affiliation does is limit the momentum of something impactive like the convention.
Suddenly its ok to call yourself a republican again and I am sure the new breakdown if he adjusted it today would be totally different.

I think he is hinting at this when he writes here:

For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008.

23 posted on 09/08/2008 6:55:46 AM PDT by housedeep
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To: sunmars

Obama’s convention bumb did not show up in Rassmussen until Wednesday after his speech. So McCain’s bump has not completely shown up yet.


24 posted on 09/08/2008 6:55:56 AM PDT by Always Right (Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.)
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To: 1Old Pro
Obama is starting to run ads in NC again. Saw a bunch yesterday.

Problem is, he's still running against Bush....premise is McCain=Bush. Not a good strategy, IHMO, as the last I checked, President Bush is not in the race.

25 posted on 09/08/2008 6:56:15 AM PDT by wbill
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To: sunmars

Basically what you are seeing is the conventions were a wash, and the blatantly obvious trend and movement toward McCain has continued and will continue until election day short of some massive shake up or unforseen event.

Tommorrow and the next few days after that are the ones I’m looking for, as they will start including numbers from this week, not friday and weekend numbers.

The trend was clearly toward McCain before either convention, and post both convention it certainly seems like the trend is continuing. The next update of the EC states should be interesting. Last one prior to both conventions showed every state that moved, moved right. Post convention I don’t see this trend not continuing.

Fauxbama has lost the race, lets face it, this weekend he’s on the talk shows arguing we shouldn’t be comparing resumes but simply voting for parties.... that’s a fundamental signal of a loss. Even if folks vote party, that’s not an argument folks want to hear or will motivate them. Ignore the man, just vote the party.

I know the press and bloggers are jumping all over his “my muslim faith” flub, but that’s not the real story. The story is Fauxbama not by mistake, not by slip, but with intentional forethought is promiting that voters should just ignore the candidate and vote party. That’s utterly stupid, and should be what everyone should be jumping on.

I can’t defend or given you a cogent reason to vote for ME, but vote for my party. That’s an insane argument, and its largely been ignored.


26 posted on 09/08/2008 6:57:01 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: MrB

I’m ignorant to why lying to exit pollsters is a good idea. Can you help me out?


27 posted on 09/08/2008 6:57:55 AM PDT by Tigercap (If 0bama had the experience of Palin, he too might be qualified to run for Vice President)
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To: Always Right

Yep, tommorrows numbers will be a better judge, and by weds for sure we’ll know where things stand.


28 posted on 09/08/2008 6:58:35 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: wbill
last I checked, President Bush is not in the race.

Yep, and running against Palin is a waste for him too.

29 posted on 09/08/2008 6:58:59 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Tigercap

because on election days it does two things, fakes out corrupt msm who leak exit polls to tell bambi supporters he is winning when he’s not.

It also pushes the GOP base out if we make them think theres a chance of losing the state.


30 posted on 09/08/2008 7:00:58 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars
The state by state matchups still favor Obama by a wide margin, and that's what really counts. The McCain campaign knows this and is hitting it hard. When this turns around then we can be really optimistic.
31 posted on 09/08/2008 7:01:09 AM PDT by Batrachian
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To: sunmars
The state by state matchups still favor Obama by a wide margin, and that's what really counts. The McCain campaign knows this and is hitting it hard. When this turns around then we can be really optimistic.
32 posted on 09/08/2008 7:01:10 AM PDT by Batrachian
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To: sunmars
The state by state matchups still favor Obama by a wide margin, and that's what really counts. The McCain campaign knows this and is hitting it hard. When this turns around then we can be really optimistic.
33 posted on 09/08/2008 7:01:20 AM PDT by Batrachian
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To: Norman Bates; meandog; onyx; MARTIAL MONK; GulfBreeze; Kuksool; freespirited; Salvation; ...
The McCain List.

One more day, according to Rasmussen, to get full bounce effect..........

McCain now leads in RCP Average, too

34 posted on 09/08/2008 7:02:00 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: savedbygrace

“Turnout, baby, turnout!”

I agree. Although it’s hard for me to fathom how Obama could even be getting 1% of the vote, he’s got his loyal followers and lots of money. Evidently, they have a highly organized ground game and add in the cheating, they’re going to make this a close race. Turn-out will be crucial.


35 posted on 09/08/2008 7:02:33 AM PDT by Minn. 4 Bush
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To: The Bronze Titan

That’s right, Obama is an Alinsky/Acorn/Soros man. No level of voter fraud would be beneath him—and by all accounts he’s been working on it for months.


36 posted on 09/08/2008 7:04:39 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: TitansAFC

No matter what the final bounce...a LOT of hard work needs to be done to get out the vote for McCain/Palin.


37 posted on 09/08/2008 7:05:27 AM PDT by SumProVita ("Cogito ergo sum pro vita." .....updated Descartes)
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To: Batrachian

The state by state polling numbers still favor Obama because they lag. State polls aren’t taken as often and are frequently weeks or even months old. If McCain is ahead, the state polls will start to reflect that fact over the next few weeks.


38 posted on 09/08/2008 7:07:28 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: sunmars
IMHO from the state of Mo. Some polls had McCain ahead even before the Palin announcement. The Palin rally before the convention drew 23K. Another scheduled for today. Obama hasn't been here in over a month. The rat gubernatorial candidate thought he would coast in on coattails and now that race is tightening.
39 posted on 09/08/2008 7:13:53 AM PDT by 11th Commandment (Obama- new socialism for a new generation that never heard of Hitler, Stalin and Mao)
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To: sunmars

40 posted on 09/08/2008 7:16:16 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ('GOP' : Get Our Petroleum)
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To: snarkytart
The results on Elections Day will be as follow:

McCain 52%, Obama 47%

Males: McCain 56% Obama 43%

Females: McCain 49%, Obama 50%

41 posted on 09/08/2008 7:18:24 AM PDT by jveritas (God Bless President Bush and our brave troops)
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To: sunmars

I believe Rassmussen more than any other polls. I knew it was ridiculous to believe he had a huge lead. This race will be close no matter what people say. It will probably come down to a state or two again. We will prevail, but it will be a nail biter.


42 posted on 09/08/2008 7:18:53 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: sunmars
For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated

Which makes no sense to me. Rasmussen just a week or so ago said that the gap between Dems and GOPers had closed to 5.7%. The only reason I can think of for such a discrepancy is he still he feels Dems are far more motivated to vote. Since the Palin selection I no longer see any justification for such a view. Maybe I'm missing something...

43 posted on 09/08/2008 7:20:03 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: xzins
He uses a 90 day rolling average

Ahhh, here's my answer. Thank you. I thought it was a monthly rolling average. So with the 90 days then these September numbers are trailing the fairly new 5.7% differential.

44 posted on 09/08/2008 7:22:09 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: Tigercap

It could backfire, if the scenario started to look like 2000 in western Florida, where the conservatives just didn’t vote because it looked like Gore had won Fla.

But, I just remember the look on Susan Estrich’s face when the actual results started coming in after the exit polls showed a Kerry victory. Priceless.


45 posted on 09/08/2008 7:22:50 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: Batrachian

All those state polls are at least a week old or older.


46 posted on 09/08/2008 7:23:59 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Batrachian
The state by state matchups still favor Obama by a wide margin, and that's what really counts.

No, they don't.

47 posted on 09/08/2008 7:24:42 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: snarkytart

I totally agree.

No heterosexual, non-minority men are going to vote for Obama and against McCain. Within a few weeks, Mc is going to have a ten point lead with men, and be at parity or better with women. Then....lights out, we won.


48 posted on 09/08/2008 7:26:37 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: All

>>
For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated
>>

Remember, Ras gets these targets with a 3 *month* survey. The recent Palin-derived GOP surge in affiliation won’t show in his targets at all pre-election because there’s only one month left. Next month’s targets will see a GOP increase and that will boost McCain’s daily results, but it will be averaged with August and July.

Ras results don’t move much because he forces that party mixture.

Also, McCain’s surge in polling is the result of big McCain nights in the daily surveys. They will roll off.

All bounces fade and this one will, too. But the fade may not erode much for the same party mixture reasons . . . volatility is held down by that mix.

As for some other talk floating around, some debunking:

1) There is no weekend bias in polls. If there was, the pollsters would apply their own counter bias to achieve accuracy.

2) There is no agenda in polls other than accuracy. Accuracy gets more paid contracts.

3) Bounces erode.

4) There is no failure to poll the young. Cellphones are now included by most pollsters. Many people dump the calls via caller ID, but there is no evidence GOP vs Dem voters do so more often than the other.

5) The same thing is true of lying in poll results. There is no evidence one side does it more than the other for whatever imagined agenda.


49 posted on 09/08/2008 7:27:35 AM PDT by Owen
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To: sunmars

gotcha thanks. I like it overall, but concern is if McCain-Palin supporters think it’s lost, they may not go and vote.


50 posted on 09/08/2008 7:40:10 AM PDT by Tigercap (If 0bama had the experience of Palin, he too might be qualified to run for Vice President)
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