Posted on 09/08/2008 6:39:37 AM PDT by sunmars
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.
Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).
McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women
This is significant
Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that they are certain they will cast their ballot for McCain and will not change their mind before November. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about Obama. Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55%
This looks like a 1% gain from yesterday. I believe the poll was tied at 46 yesterday, and tied at 48% with leaners included.
Well I was hoping for something better from Rasmussen who I trust more than Gallup.
Unless something DRASTIC happens, this race is over an Obama knows it, that’s why he’s going negative this early.
Rassmussen is telling us something here though cryptically.
For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.
Between “democrats always poll 5-8 points higher than election results” and the Wilder effect,
we could be looking at a 10-12 point lead when the polls show a “dead heat”.
Don’t forget to lie to exit pollsters!
McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women”
But...but....the NOW hags kept telling us that putting Palin won’t help with women, b/c that is just a gimmick...
CNN and MSNBC still showing polls with Obama leading by 2...
This is Rass’s polling %’s
For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated
So if he’s polling 7.8% more Dems, then McCain is in great shape, as he’s polling way more Independents than Bambi.
I still cannot believe McCain leads by only 4% with males.
YES, I know minority men, and young men who are living in the bigger cities vote DEM, but that’s nothing new, and Bush had a double digit lead with men.
I think something is off with that 4%.
Perhaps an insignificant lead, but not trailing any more.
Who knows, Sarah Palin and her running mate might just win this thing. Right now, I think John is just along for the ride, trying to keep pace.
I would say yes. He uses a 90 day rolling average to determine his ratio of Dem/Rep/Ind voters. It’s as fair a system as anything else that I’ve seen. Many disagree.
If there is actually much more support for McCain, it doesn’t hurt to take a worst-case view by relying on Rasmussen’s less volatile poll. It’s just makes Republicans work harder.
actually if this is the case, i think McCain is pulling in approx imately 2/3’ds of indies.
It's called whistling past the graveyard.
I share your enthusiam. BUT..., unlike the "war is over" declaration and then waiting (almost losing it) 4 years to "mop up" with a surge, this time (in this war) we ENGAGE IN A SURGE OF OUR OWN "NOW" and "MOP UP" on NOV 4th.
An anti-0bama landslide
will be “PROOF”
that America is still racist.
Like the MSM, polls lean towards the Libs so do your own checking. McCain and Palin are for and look like America and = change while Obama and Biden represent and look like Washington insiders and that = no change.
Rasmussen was on Hannity last week saying don’t expect to see a convention bump materialize in his polling until Tuesday or Wednesday...if at all.
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