Posted on 09/08/2008 3:02:25 PM PDT by Chet 99
If McCain is within 3-6 points, McCain wins due to the Bradley effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
Should rename it the “Obama effect” when this is all over. Tom Bradley has paid enough.
Dang. Beat me by 8 seconds!
I went to the link and no internals were reported. Is there anyway to find these (sample size, party affiliation, registered or likely voters)?
What kind of contortions are the pollsters going through when they show huge moves in women voters but the top line number only contracts by 3 points?
Whose coattails?
“Among women, Gregoire had led by 24 points in May, 60 percent to 36 percent. In this new poll, the candidates are tied.”
WA Ping!!!
Obama has had his Stalingrad and the Zhukov in this metaphor is Palin. Retreat on all fronts for the once invincible grand army of Obama. Palin\McCain took Obama strength, his message of change and like a grand master Jiu-Jitsu artist used it as leverage against himself. I am not totally sold on all these blue states going red just yet, especially with debates left go and fake scandals to conjure with the MSM. If this was 2 weeks out from the election I;d be dancing a jig but like Rush said, look for this bounce then Obama maybe takig a lead back and the media calling him the conquering hero. Obama will lose, maybe not McGovern style but he will lose handily, enough where there will be no doubt.
Here is one WA voter who will be voting for McCain and Rossi in Nov.
Holy Schmoly! WA in play for McCain? I know there are a lot of disgruntled Hillary voters up here, but damn.......
And in regards to Rossi: The dems believed everyone was going to forget what they did 4 years ago. Nobody has forgotten and now we have a 8 billion state deficit thanks to Fraudorie and her union backers.
Pack you bags Fraudorie. The party is over.
“Oregon I could beleive, but Washington?!?”
This is indeed a surprise. I had written off Washington completely (and, in all candor, still do; though the new numbers are provocative), and have just barely concluded that Oregon could be in play, though at long odds.
I’m sure many women (and men) of both political persuasions identify with Palin and the gifts she brings to the campaign.
I spoke with a deeply entrenched democratic family member this weekend about politics (usually a verbotten topic between us) and the whole conversation was the enthused replay of Palin’s speech and her lifestyle and her family.
I kept quiet not wanting to interrupt, hoping the moment would remain in my memory forever! It was wonderful hearing those words we both could agree upon.
A San Francisco democrat at that!
Obama is already bleeding from the migration of the women’s vote after only one week?
Wait until the PUMA’s really start working. The PUMA forums indicate that they are rolling up their sleeves to punish the DNC and O man.
What a an election!
Repubs have to form serious poll watcher groups...the Dems will try ever local and Chicago trick in the ‘community organisers’ handbook.
I make our chances at one in three but you’re right, it’s fun to think about. :)
I agree. While Obama is on the retreat, I’ve heard it before in states like Hawaii, Washington, and Oregon that they were going to go red, but come election day, it’s still blue by easy margin.
Washington is as blue as it comes. This could be just a temporary overeaction by disgruntled Hillary voters. Push comes to shove, they’ll punch (D) in Nov.
In ‘04 Kerry beat Bush by 7% in WA. So it’s not much of a stretch to see a 4% Obama lead at this point coming off the RNC (and considering the MoE plus undecideds). I’m sure it’ll fall back in line with the ‘04 result by Nov. 4th, though I would certainly enjoy seeing the Dems sweat the Soviet of Washington State.
I think this shows that this is shaping up to be a conventional election more than a landslide-type one with one candidate heading some kind of transcendent political movement (that was what Obama and his genius political strategist Axeldud thought they had).
Don’t worry the Dems will find enough ballots to pull it off in the same place they found them 4 years ago.
http://www.soundpolitics.com/archives/004098.html
I doubt Reps will win WA’s electoral votes, but I’m definitely hoping we can get Rossi enough of a lead this time that even Acorn and King County can’t steal it. Wouldn’t hurt for Sarah to come here and campaign with him either.
Please ping the chapter.
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