SurveyUSA: In Washington State, McCain-Palin Slices Into Obama-Biden (Palin Helping Dino Rossi)

SurveyUSA ^ | 09/08/08 | SurveyUSA

[Baumer]

Not confirmed yet but I’ve been told to keep that date available for a trip to Spokane. Can’t say anymore than that right now...stay tuned.

[fortheDeclaration]

If Washington State is in play the Democrats are facing a blowout.

[fortheDeclaration]

McCain is going to win Fl. with no problem. CO may be a tougher nut,but I am confident we will win it.

[fortheDeclaration]

Amen, we are seeing a major meltdown. I don't know if there is anything that Obama can do to stem it.

People just don't trust him or like him.

[fortheDeclaration]

Must have beem alot of Democrat ‘men’ they polled.

[JohnnyZ]

I am expecting McCain to pick up a majority of the states that Bush lost by 5% or less in 2004.

I can see that. I think the first four are really in play:

Wisconsin 0.38%
New Hampshire 1.37
Pennsylvania 2.50
Michigan 3.42
Minnesota 3.48
Oregon 4.16

Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico are in trouble, though.

[fortheDeclaration]

The Landslide map is more realistic. I don’t see either Co. or Penn. going to Obama. I think we will take CT because of Liberman’s support there.

[fortheDeclaration]

McCain needs Colorado or Michigan without losing Florida, Nevada, or Virginia.

He is going to take those States as well as Penn. which we only lost in 2004 by 1% and that was due to Kerry pretending to be pro-gun and having a military background.

Neither of those will be true today and military people and gun owners are going to vote for McCain.

[fortheDeclaration]

Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico are in trouble, though.

I think we will take 3 out of 4.

We will probably lose Iowa.

[GVnana]

Please God, let even one Pacific state come to its senses.

[GLDNGUN]

I said earlier this week that OR and/or WA could be picked off by McCain if he plays his hand right.

I told my wife about the exact same thing, as I was driving the U-Haul into Oregon (our new home) from California (old home). I told her CA was probably a lost cause, but now being an Oregonian I will do whatever I can to help McCain/Palin and that I think Oregon is very doable, as well as Washington.

[cherry]

some joker is posting a thread about predicting a Barry win...

I need some encouraging news...

[cherry]

I live in Washington State and we are actually TWO states....east of the Cascades and west of the Cascades....

more people live west of the Cascades, and they are more leftist....

we east siders for the most part swing republican probably 55% or more....

McCain needs to pull in 40% or so on the west side, and pull in 60% here on the east side....he can win this state.....

the Gregoire "election" was fraudulent...and IMO so was the Cantwell Senate race a few years ago....

[cherry]

I want Sarah here in Spokane area....so far, its no go....but for those of you that want her to come here, call the local Republican office, and they'll give you the local chair person to call....apparently, we have to lobby to get the McCain people to send Sarah over here.....

also, here in the Spokane area, we have no bumper stickers or buttons or signs....all gone....

here is the email addy for requesting Sarah to come to the Spokane area..... wyssj@gebbers.farms.com...at least I hope so.....that's where I sent my request...

[cherry]

yes...I heard today it was the 24th....a fundraiser...no details on how much or where .....

[cherry]

who are you that you need to keep that date available?.....I live in this area and need to start PLANNING....lol

[Raycpa]

The change is within the margin of error, especially considering the smaller subsample of men.

Good point but it makes me think the entire sample is flawed.

[AuH2ORepublican]

If McCain carries OR and WA, he would probably be extremely competitive in CA (IIRC, President Bush actually did better in CA than in WA in 2004) and, more to the point, McCain would be on the cusp of 400 electoral votes. If he carries OR and WA, there’s no way that he doesn’t carry NV, CO or probably NM, and it would be hard to believe that he wouldn’t also carry WI, MN, IA, NJ, NH, PA, OH, MI, FL and VA.

That being said, I think the demographics of OR and WA give Obama the advantage, but if Obama has to campaign there it will make it even more difficult for him to carry Rust Belt states that are slipping away from him (or the Upper Midwest states of WI, MN and IA that combined to give President Bush 49%, for that matter).

[mainerforglobalwarming]

I think your analysis is right. I think scenario two is more likely based upon where the campaign is today, and where it will be after the debates. So many factors to consider. One thread today says tyhat 25% of hillary voters are going to vote for McCain. Probably won't happen. By the polling stats for Rass or Zogby and Gallup are going to be off. Because I believe that 10% of Hillary voters will either vote for McCain or not vote at all. And the swing of millions of voters from blue to red will mean that traditionally blue state like PA and MI, WI. WA, HI are going to McCain.

[Claud]

And the swing of millions of voters from blue to red will mean that traditionally blue state like PA and MI, WI. WA, HI are going to McCain.

Yep. McCain could easily win PA. PA is completely polarized. Philly/Pittsburgh/Scranton go Dem, and the rest of the state goes GOP. Obama is not going to pick up the rural parts of the state. But my relatives around Philly--white ethnic Union Democrats--can't stand him. Hillary was right in the primary--Obama can't pull Union Democrats. Voting along racial lines is a fact in the Northeast urban areas--we see it typically in mayoral elections. This election has that very same dynamic.

If McCain siphons off enough Union Democrats in Philly and Pittsburgh, Obama is done for.