Rasmussen 9/10/08: 48-47 Obama with leaners (46-46 w/o leaners)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll ^

[CatOwner]

This results matches the WSJ poll released yesterday showing Obama up 47-46 with leaners. I am starting to think that the Gallup results (+5 RV, +10 LV) are outliers.

[impeachedrapist]

You mean you’re starting to HOPE that Gallup is an outlier. :-) Because the recent CHANGE in momentum has to be disconcerting.

[B Knotts]

The thing is, Rasmussen himself said that we won’t see all of the bounce until around now, and we’re seeing his poll move in the opposite direction.

The other thing is that there doesn’t seem to be any explanation for why numbers would be moving in Obama’s direction.

I think all the polls, Gallup included, are a bit odd right now.

[DRey]

Rasmussen uses a weird party “enthiuasm” factor based on three months prior (well before the conventions and Palin came along to change everything) to weight his polls. If there is an outlier, it will be Rasmussen from here on out.

[hoe_cake]

All these polls confuse me. I’ve seen polls showing white women’s support up tremendously, and men’s support for Palin up trememdously.

No poll is consistent. What poll is more trusting? Any of them?

[beagleone]

Personally, I think Rasmussen is oversampling Democrats. But I don’t mind, because we can’t get complacent with the favorable polls. This is just a reminder that we have a long way to go.

[nikos1121]

I don’t know what this means. Rasmussen is an automated survey. Palin is mobilizing both sides. The question will be the effect the O Reilly and Charles Gibson interviews are having and will have. Biden is totally out of the picture. Obama is going after Palin, he doesn’t look presidential. By this time four years ago, Bush was taking off....5 to 6 pt ahead. Mac is scoring big in Montana and NC. It’s nip and tuck in NM, CO, VA, IN, OH

[CatOwner]

OH and IN should be safe for McCain. VA and especially CO have me concerned, and I think this is where the election is won or lost.

[beagleone]

I do feel that McCain is mission-focused and knows in his gut how to pull this one out.

You don't want to "peak" too soon in this game. Just ask "The Messiah."

[forYourChildrenVote4Bush]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110143/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Maintains-5Point-Lead.aspx

September 9, 2008
Gallup Daily: McCain Maintains 5-Point LeadSupport among registered voters steady at 49%

Different polls different results???

[Texas Mulerider]

Let’s see if this changes after the “lipstick on a pig” story is out for a while. It just happened yesterday. It’s all the networks are talking about this morning. Of course, MSNBC is in full damage control mode.

[impeachedrapist]

Personally, I think Rasmussen is oversampling Democrats.

There's no thinking about it. Rasmussen had an article last week stating that the gap between Dems and Pubbies had closed to 5.7% (and this was immediately after Palin's selection and before the GOP convention). Yet he's been using a model that has about 9% points more Dems than Pubbies. That's due to a rolling 90-day average he uses. No problem. He's completely up front about his methodology.

So if you think that Dems will outvote Pubbies by about 9 points in November, the race is indeed about 50/50. If you believe the 5.7% number is accurate, then McCain/Palin are still enjoying their bump.

If, like me, you think (based on new enthusiasm, fundraising numbers and registration numbers) that the gap will continue to close through November, then McCain/Palin are in pretty good shape in what is still a close race.

[CatOwner]

I agree about the confusion. White women are up for McCain-Palin, and independents are really up for McCain-Palin, yet this isn't reflected in the polls released the last couple of days. Maybe the polls on white women and independents are wrong? I have no other explanation.

[henkster]

Without some sort of major change, this is going to be a very close election in the popular vote. Stump speeches and campaign stops are not going to change anything; those are just preaching to the choir.

The only major opportunities for a “sea change” that we know about are the debates. There are still “wild card” opportunities for such a change, like a terrorist attack or some sort of “Tet Offensive” in Iraq.

Barring a major mistake by McCain (0bama’s will be covered up by the msm), this is what we will get to the election.

[Doofer]

The thing is, Rasmussen himself said that we won’t see all of the bounce until around now, and we’re seeing his poll move in the opposite direction.

Or in other words Rasmussen is playing a game of some sort...

[Sooth2222]

"Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated."

That's my guess as to where the problem is with the Rasmussen polling. Claimed party identification probably changed significantly over just a few days following Sarah Palin's speech.

I could call myself a Republican, Libertarian, Democrat or an independent, and I would not be lying, since my state doesn't require a political party to be declared except to vote in a primary.

[101voodoo]

I personally like the way Rasmussen has done over the years but I think the only way to get a true picture, or as true as it can be is to look at as wide an assortment of polls as is available and attempt to get a general sense of what is happening.

None of these polls can account for the “Bradley Effect” which we will see on election day.

[bushsupporter30]

I agree with you about the methodology.

I said this in previous posts that we still have to look at this election as our side being 10 points down and give it all we can.

But at this point, only thing that worries me is the GOTV efforts and ground game as NoBama is pretty strong there and dont know if our side is as strong as 2004. But I am sure Schimdt has that under control..

[impeachedrapist]

Maybe the polls on white women and independents are wrong? I have no other explanation.

You mean you HOPE they're wrong? :-) Let me help you out. Read my post #12 for an explanation.

[libscum]

All the “MO” has been with MCCAIN of late. I think Rasmussen is mising boat a bit on something. All the trends are going MCCAIN way- I don’t get it.....