Posted on 09/10/2008 6:58:09 AM PDT by CatOwner
This results matches the WSJ poll released yesterday showing Obama up 47-46 with leaners. I am starting to think that the Gallup results (+5 RV, +10 LV) are outliers.
I haven’t seen the internals, so I honestly can’t speculate.
that was just a matter of timing to be doing a poll at the time the story broke.
zogby is no longer credible with his number’s tweak.
Maybe Rasmussen has decided to model Democrat voter fraud in this year's election.
I hate the fact that in many cases these polls are constructed to give a biased viewpoint, trying to keep the race close for whatever reason (media want Obama and hates GOP, Rasmussen/Zogby want viewership to remain high during the election).
How about Cynthia McKinney and the Green Party? /s
> VA and especially CO have me concerned, and I think this is where the election is won or lost <
I don’t see the Dhimm’s taking VA. At most, they may improve on Kerry’s 2004 performance by a point or so.
Let’s remember that Jim Webb won VA in 2006 by a mere 5000-vote margin. I believe that slim victory was made possible only by his support among four groups that would otherwise have voted for George Allen:
1. Coal miners and other mountaineers of SW Virginia, to whom Webb appealed as a fellow Scots-Irish descendant. Given Obama’s “anti-coal” remarks, however, and given that Hillary carried this area easily, it’s hard to see how Obama does well in the Virginia mountains.
2. Vietnamese refugees in northern Virginia, who were wooed non-stop by Webb’s Vietnamese wife. But Obama and his wife have zero appeal to this group — maybe less than zero!
3. Asian Indians (Hindus) all over the Old Dominion, who were offended by Allen’s “maccaca” reference. Some of them might look favorably on Obama as a fellow man of color. But then McCain has an adopted daughter — with very dark skin — from Bangladesh. And it’s hard to see much Hindu enthusiasm for a man whose father was a Muslim. Advantage McCain.
4. Navy and Marine Corps active duty personnel and vets, plus their families, in the Hampton Roads area. A signficant percentage of them voted for Webb due almost entirely to his Marine Corps record. They’ll also swing heavily to McCain, likewise for his Navy service.
So Obama may as well stop buying ads and paying staff in VA. Otherwise, it will be money down the drain.
The poll the people take in NOV on Election Day!
None of the thousands of polls taken by the dozens of pollsters before then matter and are to be taken with a grain of salt!
How can 20% of the women shift to McCain and it result in Obama +1? Aren’t we half the population and more than half of the voting population? (Women typically vote a little more than guys do.)
Before the Rep. convention it was 48-43 Obama. (If I’m reading the chart right.) That’s a five point difference. If 20% of the women shifted and NO men, we should see McCain up by 5% now. I’d also add that we now have more conservatives in the “Likely Voter” category than two weeks ago. Palin will get us off the couch on election night like McCain never could.
I think Rasmussen is off somehow, but I’m willing to wait for next week’s polls before I finalize that impression.
We also need to wait a week to see the impact of the lipstick comment. If it’s anything like Kerry’s “bunny suit”, he’ll never regain his momentum.
He is, but not because of bias. Rassmussen uses a 90-day rolling average of party affiliations to balance his sample. In the current sample that meant an extra 7.9% of the sample were D’s compared to R’s. His own current data says that the registration advantage is now 5.7%.
If any FReepers are Premium Members of the Rassumssen site, they can probably get the breakdown of the polls by party affilitation and recompute the result weighting the parties by current affiliation numbers instead of the rolling average. I suspect the calculation would show McCain/Palin up a few points.
private polling vs public polling
remember FNC’s Morris said only 7% of men were undecided while 40% of women were undecided.
pre-palin.
I suspect Obama’s panic is related to the non-public polling.
I have never ... including Reagan ... seen Repubs so enthusiastic and committed.
(Just another anecdotal, but still ....)
I redid Rasmussen’s numbers using Ras’ party affiliation percentages from Oct. 2004, immediately preceding the 2004 election. Basing off the “without leaners” number of 46-46, I get McCain 52, Obama 48.
McCain needs to find something to take the wind out of the “young people’s” sails. They usually don’t vote, but this time, I’m worried that they will vote in large numbers, if they feel they can make a difference.
This is going to be another extremely close election. I like our chances, but it could definitely go either way.
Honestly, I would like to ask Rasmussen if the majority of indys, white men and white women now favor Mccain just how is he projecting a tie? Is he including the dead people and college students voting 4x in Dade County, Columbus Ohio, Saint Louis , Detroit, Philly, Pitt, and Richmond?
What were the differences in the Party affiliations in 2004 comapred to 2008 ?
“McCain needs to find something to take the wind out of the “young people’s” sails. They usually don’t vote, but this time, I’m worried that they will vote in large numbers, if they feel they can make a difference.”
Well, let’s start the rumor that smoking kudzu will get you high and we’ll solve two problems (1) we won’t have a kudzu problem, and (2) the youngun’s will be ill from smoking rot gut and won’t make it to the polls.
That's consistent with my SWAG (Scientific Wild A** Guess) estimate, too. McCain/Palin is in no worse shape and probably somewhat better shape than Bush/Cheney was at this time in 2004. There may be some "Bradley Effect" and "Palin Effect", too, but we won't see that until the polls close. I'd be ecstatic with 54-46.
Check the history. I voted for GWB for president in 2000 and 2004. Do you REALLY think I want Obama to win this election? Thanks for playing anyway.
Yes... CO is a key unless McCain can pick up one elsewhere.
He needs FL, OH, IN. I think he’ll get that appalachian belt...I’m hoping Penn.
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