Posted on 09/15/2008 1:19:47 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
Report on national survey and survey of presidential battleground states
The latest events in the presidential campaign have tightened the race dramatically. In Democracy Corps’ latest surveys of 1,000 likely voters nationally and 1,017 likely voters in the presidential battleground states, the vote margin has shifted 7 points towards John McCain nationally and 9 points in the battleground. This swing puts McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 2 points nationally (48 to 46 percent), consistent with the national public polls, and by 1 point in the battleground states (48 to 47 percent).[1]
Though these results are challenging, this is still an election that Obama has at least an even chance of winning. In the battleground states, he is running 3 points ahead of Kerry’s performance in 2004, and thus, he is very much in the position to put together the majority he needs to win the Electoral College. Moreover, the Voter Choice Scale (constructed from eight survey questions) shows nofurther trend for McCain; indeed, among independents nationally, there are nearly twice as many voters “winnable” or “in-reach” for Obama (17 to 9 percent). And finally, the shift in the party composition of the survey following the Republican convention (from an average of 8.5 points Democratic advantage throughout this year to a smaller 3-point lead last week) is very likely to ease back — probably putting the two candidates into a dead-heat soon.
That said, it is now show time for progressives, Democrats, and the Obama campaign, all of whom will have to display new intensity to get this race on track. This is still a change election.
(Excerpt) Read more at democracycorps.com ...
Man. I bet the Democrats never thought the polls would be this close. This is a Dem poll for crying out loud...and the internals, no matter how Carville spins them, do not look good for the Dems at this point.
It gets better and better.
Is Snakehead throwing in the towel for 2008?
What effect is the DOW plunge going to have on the election?
Seeing as it was conducted by Carville, you know this poll made favorable assumptions for Democrats. McCain having a two point lead in spite of those assumptions speaks well for our chances in November.
It still isn't over obviously, but all signs point to a McCain lead heading into the debates. That is definitely the position you want to be in.
if i was a dem...this would be a real downer...
anytime a veteran operative is telling your team to “get back on track” with “intensity” spells gloom and doom.
and the sad thing is that they all think “intensity” means anger and “bush 44” tactics. they dont even recognize that american exceptionalism wins every time.
pretty sad stuff.
well the original plan was to brainwash the country with change...hope...we are the ones we’ve been waiting for...believe
I guess that depends...are the voters going to believe McCain is Bush 44, or are they going to ignore he’s a Marxist.
and this is before anyone even speculates about a “Bradley Effect” Good news indeed.
Carville has been anti-Obama. He was quite contemptuous of him I understand, and he wasn’t even working for Clinton.
“What effect is the DOW plunge going to have on the election?”
If it is a one or two day drop, nothing. If it is sustained plunge/crash, who knows. Maybe Barry makes the argument this is the Republicans’ fault or McCain succeeds in seeding doubts as to whether Barry is experienced to deal with this crisis. Stay tuned.
Its perfectly in line with Rasmussen, Gallup and Zogby it seems. It doesn’t necessarily have to make different assumptions if it comes up with similar results.
“if i was a dem...this would be a real downer...”
Maybe. Or, maybe Carville, the Strategist, will point to higher poll numbers in a week (from his poll, of course) and say ‘look, in just one week of fighting, Obama has taken the lead back!’. The whole thing seems fishy. I’m just going to stick with the regular polls.
If all of the polls are showing a consistent McCain / Palin lead regardless of the assumptions that are being made, it suggests the lead is real and not the product of any polling bias.
The Audacity of a Losing Cause.
McCain camp needs to press the issue of a do-nothing Congress and a do-nothing potential President. Talk about scary!
Remember - the popular vote doesn’t matter - who has the the electoral votes?
Suddenly the Dems are on board with the Electoral College!
His only hope as it now stands is to pull out small margin victories in a few key states with Dem-dominated big cities (i.e., PA/MI/WI) where ‘community activists’ can get out the vote with a lil walkin-around money.
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