Ladies and gentlemen, we have a WINNUH!!!
Posted on 09/16/2008 11:40:30 AM PDT by NYC Republican
And many red state polls (VA, NV, CO, FL) show McCain in an oddly close race.
I think it is more likely that one of these red states will flip to blue versus one of these blue states fliiping to red.
Well, 4 yrs ago, the final Gallup poll showed Bush at about 49, Kerry at about 47. Undecideds (about 9%!) broke about evenly, and Bush won.
So...I think that McCain need not break 50 until election day.
Meanwhile, the fact that we have turned so many blue states purple definitely helps us.
Ask yourself this: if you had to choose, whose campaign would you wish to be on today? McCain’s or Obama’s?
I know it’s a close race, but personally I think McCain is better situated for victory. And don’t forget that he is going to have a money advantage, which is incredible given Obama’s fundraising.
Dawn, national polls are leading indicators, state polls usually follow that trend, to a point... Right now, it’s hard to argue that it’s anything but a 50/50 tie (or 48/48)
Ignore what the media feeds you, and understand the critical moment - McCain picked Palin and unified and energized the GOP. The tailwind McCain receives from his base will push him over the finish line.
No he’s not.
To see the Bradley effect in action, you just have to look at the Democratic primary results. In numerous states, Hillary was either behind or slightly ahead in the polls and then won those states by substantially larger margins.
As for the broken glass African American voters, there simply isn’t that much room to grow those numbers (even growing the percentage of black registered voters is difficult).
The recent state polling does show a shift in favor of McCain. Given that data, you can either assume the narrowing of the national vote either represents an actual change in the mood of the electorate or is just random noise from the polls moving within their margins of error. Because there’s really been no unfavorable McCain (or favorable Obama) news, at this point it looks more like random fluctuation about a small McCain polling lead.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a WINNUH!!!
There is also the issue of Obama's funding. He has a lot of balls to keep in the air daily--more so than McCain as Obama was so cocky as to think he could do all his funding privately. Obama's hubris often gets him in trouble and this is just another example and we can expect more stumbles, but not rely on them.
Obama's campaign is in essence hiding their VP and also their candidate's wife on a national level. You can only hide so much while also in addition to the daily fight in the last days of an election having to be raising money daily. instead of focusing exclusively on message. McCain does not have to worry about raising money. He doesn't need to hide anyone. He can focus on the election at hand and going exclusively after his targets and getting his message out.
# 3 Not really - McCain has taken the lead.
Why on earth would you think that when all the trend are in the other direction, in every battleground state? And FYI, blue states are already flipping to red, according to RCP.
DESTROY THE FALSE PREMISE FOR OBAMA’S CLASS WARFARE, AND HE CAN’T WIN. The democrat “campaign” is essentially based on class war, with the focus being that the Republicans are for the rich, and the flat-out lie that the Bush tax cuts were for the rich. and that McCain is more of the same. WE HAVE TO PEPPER THE TALK SHOWS - RUSH, HANNITY, HUGH, ETC. - WITH THE FACT THAT THE TAX CUTS HAVE HELPED US, WE THE MIDDLE CLASS, AND THAT RIGHT OFF, WE ESSENTIALLY FACE A TAX INCREASSE RIGHT OFF THE BAT WITH OBAMA, AS HE WOULD KILL THE BUSH TAX CUTS. I continue to be frustrated that Rush, Hannity, Hugh, etc., let the democrats and media get away with the myth that the Bush tax cuts are “for the rich.” The tax cuts for my middle-class family have provided us $2,500 per year. I believe this is right, that poor people who don’t even pay taxes have got money back based on their number of children. The largest percentage ever of tax revenues are now coming from the “rich.”
Good post, Rose! I’m doing novenas.
If you visit DU or Daily Kos, you’ll see endless hand wringing about polls and such. I’ve been kind of proud of FR that we don’t devolve into that kind of terptitude.
A couple of posters here (NYC Republican, Rose of Texas) sound just like the DU/Daily Kos posters.
That said I am a poll junkie. I just don’t let them get me too up or down. We are each of us one person. We do what we can. Myself, I believe God is sovereign, and I can be content and happy no matter what election goes what way.
That does not bleed into complacency. I’m just not letting polls make or break my day.
Somehow, I just can't seriously anything a person who says the above. Come back when the quote is "McCain has been down 10 points on all polls for the past two weeks and I'm getting quite concerned"...
Obama met with the don, Bill Clinton.
Hurricane Ike.
Stock market calamity.
These are press driven polls and they wouldn't tell us if Old John had a big lead.
In 1988, Dukakis blew himself up in the debate when asked a question by Bernard Shaw. The press immediately conferred with John Sasso and decided to create artificial momentum through saying people were rallying to his “populist” message. They all began their reports with how people were responding to Dukakis’ new slogan, “I'm on your side.” It was the dumbest think I'd ever heard, but the press went on and on. Polls later showed the race didn't change at all during that time.
These things are not for the faint hearted. The press was surprised once, in 1980. Some of them actually felt sorry for Reagan in October of that year and forced an apology from Jimmy Carter for being too “mean.” They've had long memories and long knives ever since. Fight on.
I’m not aware of a candidate that did get a poll bounce from a convention that did not lose all or part of it in the ensuing weeks. Obama was up as much as 8 points with Gallup and down as much as 5 after the Rep Convention, a swing of 13 points. On Rasmussen he was up 5 and down 3 after the Convention. The fcat is he still leads and he may drop behind the State polls are what counts and even more important is the long term trends. In that area McCain has been trending up since Early June while Obama has been trending down.
In the end polls are merely a snapshot of the day and nothing more and even the pollsters themselves voice their difficulties in polling in this environment where most people they call don’t want to be bothered.
And then we have the Bradley Effect.
As far as GOP critic... prove it... Let's see. That's wrong, clearly you've confused me with someone else.
The first debate is the next big milestone.
The day to day banter isn’t doing much, general trend McCain still seems to be going on on the ground with state EC trending still moving right.
I still think the close election 1-3% predictions will be proven wrong, but never hurts to battle like you are down.
If there is any viability to Fauxbama trying to influence IRAQI leaders behind closed doors, that’s a huge deal and if it can be substantiated, that will hurt with the indies and conservative democrats he’s shaky as hell with already. We’ll see if the story gets legs.
Other than that, I don’t see much happening on the ground, since the “lipstick” brouhaha, things have been rather calm.
Fauxbama has stopped attacking Palin and sent Biden off to states he has no chance of winning (or effectively pergatory).. other than that, I haven’t seen much change in the last few days.
The lehman affair is interesting, McCain is talking about what can be done about it, and the sound bites from Fauxbama are just what is wrong. Pointing out what is wrong is nice, but anyone can do that, he hasn’t offered anything in terms of what to do about it.
Neither campaign has done much of anything of note in the last few days, at least that I have seen.
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