3 Daily Polls Tight (JM +1 in Ras. +1 in Gallup, -4 in Diageo/Hotline)...and FR Myths

Self | 9/16/08 | Self

[NYC Republican]

Gallup - McCain/Palin were up by 5 a couple of days ago, and has gradually dropped to 1. Could be statistical noise, but the trend is troublesome...

Ras - McCain was up 3 at the high point, and now is back down to 1...

Diageo had McCain up by a couple, but now has ZeroHussein up by 4... Granted, this poll is fairly new, and we don't have much confidence in it, but the trend is really disturbing...

How much of this is due to the Lehman/Market shellacking? How much is due to the constrant stream of negative attacks on Palin? How much is attributable to Palin's initial shock and euphoria wearing off?

My belief is that we need to keep fighting back, constantly... We can't be complacent. We need to quickly counter their lies... Most of all, GOP leaders need to ask why the media focuses on the petty issues, when Ayers/Rezko/Cocaine/Wright/land deals/no exective experience or accomplishments/etc gets no publicity... Newt Gingrich and Rudy have been among the best at challenging the MSM on this... We need more of this.

What do people think is going on, and what should we do to get back on track???

As for FR myths... IMHO, the following are silly, and I don't understand why FReepers keep pushing them... I wish they'd just disappear...

1...McCain Landslide... NEVER... As long as the MSM continues to shill for the left, the GOP does nothing to challenge fraudulent votes, and the demographics continue to shift towards more minorities (i.e.- illegal immigration), the best we could hope for is between 50-55%... The MSM will continue to destroy anyone that gets in the way of their chosen one... We may still win, but it will be very close...

2... Bradley Effect... also called the Wilder effect... If we're hinging our hopes on this one, we're dead in the water... No such thing... It was a different time, when we had no reason to vote for Duke, or against Bradley... So, 2 things were at play... Complacency, thinking Bradley would walk away with it... some racism... With Zer0bama, there are tons of reasons to vote against him, or FOR a war hero, or FOR the 1st woman... Pollsters wouldn't necessarily think they're racist if they support McCain... It's also calling millions of Americans closet racists, which is crap.

3... Polls are junk... Weekend polls favor dems... Polls are blatantly lying on behalf of Dems... Please... many of you discount the polls where the results aren't favorable, and play up those that are positive... Good example is ARG... It's trashed every cycle, but today's show's McCain up by 4... all of a sudden, it's the Gold Standard... what a joke.

I have more, like the constant whining that Hillary was going to steal the election, but I'll leave it at that...

Any thoughts on what we do to get back the big "MO"?

[NYC Republican]

Any thoughts would be welcome... Clearly, I'm feeling quite a bit of angst, would love some reastic assessments. Thanks in advance

[Perdogg]

Don’t worry about the national race, concentrate on the State races. I think McCain will win.

[wideawake]

Good post. But the polls are all over the map.

All the national polls point to a dead heat, but many of the blue state polls (WA, OR, NY, NJ) show Obama in an oddly close race.

[NYC Republican]

Thanks, but how do we get our message past the despicable MSM filter and directly to the people?

[Dawn531]

I’m not troubled by national polls...I like to look more at the state polls.

Nationally, Obama had a bounce, McCain had a bounce, now we’re back to where we were in the national polls pre conventions, statistically dead even.

The debates will make or break the deal. All the other media swill goes in one ear and out the other of the average Joe. But when Americans tune in and watch for themselves, then you’ll see another shift in the national polls, hopefully toward McCain.

[padre35]

Campaign bounce and settle back down NYC.

Now it will be +/- the average and advertising and the Debates, no one really thought this would be a blow out, at least I hope no one did, this is a dogfight with a media that is openly hostile to Governor Palin.

[goldstategop]

Ignore the polls. They won't mean anything until the last week of October, when they begin to be accurate. What we are seeing is a not a shift of momentum to Obama but rather the appearance of the polls tightening when in reality, no movement has occured. They are used as editorial points, to announce an Obama rally. If you want to see how the campaigns are doing, watch what they say and where the candidates go to campaign.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[DallasBiff]

You want a realistic assessment of your posts. You have been a biaesed McCain and GOP critic since early summer and so i takr anything you write with a grain of salt.

[stockpirate]

YOu left one out concerning FR myths.

How about one or two polls = a trend?

How can one or two polls be disturbing?

McCain/Palin are moving up in many stae polls, which are more important than national polls and you see a troubling trend.

Please increase your meds.

[rushmom]

I think it’s because McCain is acting like a jerk again, apologizing for being a Republican, it’s all Bush’s fault, instead of taking it to Obama and the libs. Look what Palin conservatism did for the situation...McCain and company are hard headed.

[Paradox]

I tend to agree with you NYC. This whole "blow out" thing is simply silly. Something to note, the Palin bashing, in my estimation, WILL lead to a drop in the polls by McCain. It simply has to after a while. The 20% or so who actually decide elections these days, are the ones who get most of their news and information via the MSM. Eventually, the MSM will wear down the Palin phenomenon. So don't be shocked by further drops in the polls.

The Bradley effect, I'd like to see a recent demonstration of such a thing, and a reason to believe that this will work nation wide. I think that for every "Bradley Effected", there will be at least one "broken glass african American".

Polls, ah yes, we tend to favor the polls that favor us, its simply human nature. I think what you CAN get from them is the over all trend. That said, this is probably going to be a very close election, like the last two. I think the false bravado of freepers is either misplaced, or simply wishful thinking.

[RoseofTexas]

The mediaPUKES are doing to Palin what they did to W. The tsunami of EVIL is too powerful to overcome by ourselves. I would’nt even know where to start to fight them back. I think this bank debacle is going to hurt us REAL bad. OsAMA is being helped by all the demons on earth and hell! The only comfort we have is that GOD is still on our side. Pray, pray real hard that OSAMA will somehow stumble real bad that NOT even the mediaPUKES can't cover for him. God be merciful to us. Starting tomorrow our women's bible study will be praying for McPal. I encourage EVERYONE to PLEASE pick a day of the week to fast and pray. PLEASE! Prayer does work!

[Antoninus]

You are a poll junkie. You live and die by them.

Here's a myth for you--that polls mean anything before about a week before the election.

These polls are more about shaping public opinion than measuring it. By propagating these polls all over FR, you help the pollsters in their opinion shaping.

My advice to FReepers--ignore the polls, and work your butts off as if McCain/Palin was down 8.

[Thane_Banquo]

Bradley effect is real. Demonstrated in primaries. The issue isn’t black voters being too complacent, but white voters not wanting to admit to pollsters that they support a white candidate over a black one, for fear of being labeled racist. As the Dems are increasingly using the “If people don’t vote for Oama, it’s because they’re racist” line, the Bradley effect will expand.

As for the top-line numbers in polls, with McCain’s lead in the underlying demographics of independents and white women, why is his lead so small?

Also, “registered voter” polls do indeed inflate Democratic numbers, especially this time around when Obama’s people registered a whole lot of people who never intend to vote.

[VanDeKoik]

“Any thoughts would be welcome... Clearly, I’m feeling quite a bit of angst, “

Go out and do some work for the election instead of sitting around watching polls and using FR as group therapy for when you dont like the numbers.

[housedeep]

Relax!

This election will be a nail-biter and finally we are coming off of the honeymoon we all experienced from the fantastic pick of Gov Palin. Just remember in June and July we all didn't think we even had a chance; we are still able to win this one but it will be very very tight.

It is a electoral college battle from here on out. A few key states will tip this either way. Just know this: Team Obama is trying to defend some of its key states like Penn, Mich, and even Wisc. so we still have an advantage.

Also, the news cycle finally tipped a bit back to Obama yesterday but we can regain some ground I think during this next week. Palin and McCain must talk about economic plans in very specific terms from this point out.

[kidd]

Agree on points 1 and 2
Disagree on point 3.

What counts are the state-by-state polls. National polls are junk. And in a state-by-state set of polls, McCain is still losing in terms of electoral votes.

[macamadamia]

I'm feeling quite a bit terminal of angst

[goldstategop]

Exactly. The poll internals have not changed that much in two weeks. For McCain to lose the election, he'd pretty much have to give it away. I don't see the lead going away, no matter now much the MSM and Democrats convince themselves their candidate has a chance.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[IndianPrincessOK]

THIS is the important polling on RealClearPolitics.com

We are moving UP in most of the battleground states (+4 overall) THIS is what is most important and we are moving UP!!

Election 2008 Latest Polls
PresidentSenateHouseGovernorJob Approval/Misc.Tuesday, September 16
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie

Ohio FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3

Florida FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5

Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie

Colorado FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2

National Gallup Tracking McCain 47, Obama 46 McCain +1

National Hotline/FD Tracking McCain 42, Obama 46 Obama +4

National Rasmussen Tracking McCain 48, Obama 47 McCain +1

Ohio PPP (D) McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4

New Jersey Monmouth/Gannett Obama 49, McCain 41 Obama +8

New Jersey Quinnipiac Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3

National Battleground* McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4