Posted on 09/16/2008 11:40:30 AM PDT by NYC Republican
I think that if McCain can weather this “economy is sinking” storm that has revved up again because of Lehman, Merrill, and perhaps AIG, it will be lights out for Obama. The next few polling days should be a decent indicator on how the issue of the economy will be perceived by the electorate.
On an unrelated matter, I really wish McCain or a 527 would push the Obama Iraq interference story hard. The degree of “hubris” Obama has in believing he can shape U.S. foreign policy as merely a presidential candidate is flat insulting. In fact, if Obama in any way undermined our foreign policy or relationship with Iraq, I would expect some serious blowback coming from our elected president.
The Diageo poll has proven to be no better than a random number generator. It swings wildly, often 3 to 4 points per day. I really think RCP should dump it if it keeps doing that. A couple days ago it said McCain lost 8% points among men in 1 single day with virtually no news that day. It’s garbage.
Take the average of the Ras and Gallup polls and that’s a pretty good estimate. The changes here so far have been effectively noise though, a point here or there.
If it holds up for several more days I would say there has been some deterioration.
I will note that McCain has not been hitting hard the past couple of days.
To some degree, Barrack Obama is actually right on this one. There are ebbs and flows to a campaign like this. The post convention bounces are over. We are in a great period to come out with meaningful policy initiatives to put some meat on the rhetoric bones. John McCain would be well served to come out here with a sweeping Economic Policy Initiative. Sarah Palin should follow with a 12 point plan for Energy Independence. Finally, just before the foreign policy debate, McCain should step up with a McCain Doctrine, a manifesto of how John McCain views America’s place in the world and how intends to repair America’s image abroad.
These three initiatives would settle the gravitas issues going into the debates...then McCain and Palin need to do well in the debates.
From there, it’s a ground game of tactical maneuvers and house to house fighting in the battleground states. All Republicans close the gap nearing the election. Even Jerry Ford did that. If all of these things are done, then come election day, the Bradley effect and the safe choice decision that goes on inside the voting booth will take over and win the day. One last caveat, McCain and the Republicans must excel in grass roots efforts at the same time they step up the fraud watch on ACORN and others.
You really don't think so? I suspect that the Palin bashing is going to cause at least a few percentage point for McCain. I guess you are right overall, it seems like the trend at the moment shows a statistical dead heat, with McCain up a little. I suspect the debates may decide this thing.
One poll isnt indicative...but the combined results of the national polls are more so...and more so than the individual state polls.
Any McCain slippage is due to economic bad news, and not Palin being attacked. The Palin attacks have pretty much backfired.
Tying McCain to Bush will carry more weight than attacking Palin. In fact, if it wasnt for Palin, McCain would be trailing big time
Most polls are junk, actually, and some are definitely slanted toward liberal positions (Quinnapic and Zogby are notable examples). I have no liking for ARG either. On the other hand, Rasmussen tends to be pretty reliable.
More importantly, however, is that even "junk" polls can tell us things -- the trend lines are more important than the absolute numbers. The absolute numbers are predicated on the assumption that the pollster has a good representative sample that accurately reflects what the voting population will look like -- but it's just that, an assumption. The trends, on the other hand, are more important... regardless of the actual numbers, they can tell us whether or not a race is tightening up or being blown open.
So, going with ARG, if they've been having McCain down by, say 2, and now he's up 4, then assuming it's not an outlier, it shows a positive move for McCain, even if the percentages are wrong. This is regardless of what you think of ARG, as long as the polling methodology remains the same.
On the other hand, single-day results for most polls should be looked at skeptically. It could be an outlier (5% chance) or just a particular blip within the margin of error. Sustained trends are more important than single-poll results. (And here is where Rasmussen shines: by using a multiple-day rolling average [presumably weighted, based on past attempts to deconstruct their data], the results tend to show less volatility, and so a one- two-day move can be significant.)
The McCain camp needs to look at what they were doing just a couple of weeks ago, and keep doing THAT, because it was working.
The two biggest problems I see are:
1) Spending too much time reacting to the Obama camp’s attacks on Sarah Palin to the point that sympathy may wear down. They should be moving forward and blazing new trails, and not falling into “Palin is a victim” stuff. Who wants a “victim” as VP? I don’t see her that way, but the McCain camp needs to be careful about handling this matter...in my humble opinion. Perhaps a better way of addressing the smears is making passing, but not nasty, jokes about it in speeches on the campaign trail, but do not make it a focus. Palin is a barracuda, not a guppy. Let’s not lose that.
2) Criticisms should be focused entirely on the Democrats’ policies, not taking shots at the GOP. The “maverick” thing is what pissed off most GOPers; it shouldn’t be overplayed.
Thanks!
Correct, at this point in the election the trend is what is the most imnportant thing.
I sound like a DU/KOS poster? You are a JOKE!
[I think it is more likely that one of these red states will flip to blue versus one of these blue states fliiping to red.]
Based on what exactly?
This forum seems to be divided among those who see McCain winning in a historic landslide, and the GOP retaking Congress and those who are constantly pessimistic and see any poll blip as proof of impending doom.
I, on the other hand, see this playing out as a replay of 2000/2004. It will be hard fought to the end. People have largely made up their minds, and this thing will be decided along the margins - turnout, voter fraud, voter enthusiasm.
The day to day sideshow in the press is less important than you might think.
I don’t know about Cat Owner, but I can tell you why I think that. The states in question have been consistently Republican for a long time. Historically, they tend to poll closely until just before the election and then vote for the Republican. McCain/Palin is a more appealing ticket to most voters in these states than Bush/Cheney. Obama/Biden is no more appealing to those same voters than Kerry/Edwards.
Some call it racism others call it rational discrimination: "Group judgement based on probability". (Dinesh D'Souza) The probability is that once in power Obama will favor blacks. In Obama's case, an objective person can see the danger he poses directly from the evidence. Anybody wants to shoot the messenger, fire away.
I think there are a lot more FReepers who are taking the same approach you are than you are accounting for in your analysis.
I believe McCain will win the election. I do not think it will be in a historic landslide, however. There are going to be many ups and downs between now and election day. The McCain camp just needs to be ever-vigilant and smart about not falling into swamps. I read an article (do not have the link) the other day where the author described Obama’s campaign prior to Sarah Palin being the GOP VP pick, and prior to the Obama camp’s unraveling over it this way: He was the man carrying the prize vase down a shiny hallway. All he had to do was carry that vase to the end of the hallway with slipping or dropping it, and it was his. But, he slipped and dropped it.
I think the analogy now applies to McCain to a very large degree. Ever-vigilant and lots of hard work to steer safely into the harbor!
Realclearpolitics is very reputable, and they use Diageo/Hotline in their averages... If it was total garbage, they wouldn't...
Just cause you haven't heard of it, doesn't mean it's total crap.
darn good advice.
When is the last debate?
What seems to be happening is that McCain wakes up America with a bold move, gets through the Obamedia and they lean his way, then for days afterward, the media wear away on the voters.
McCain needs to come across with big-time communication right before voting day.
Maybe they include fraudulent ACORN votes in their polling sample.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.